Juxtaposition of Escalation and De-escalation Keeping Bonds Volatile

Juxtaposition of Escalation and De-escalation Keeping Bonds Volatile

Tuesday was notable for financial markets’ attempts to trade the Iran war due to the conspicuous juxtaposition of newswires that spoke to opposing developments. Around 1pm ET, troop deployment news sent yields to the highs of the day. A little over an hour later, the newswires gave the impression that the war was almost over–so much so that bonds were willing to retrace most of the 1pm losses. Nonetheless, yields were already elevated by 1pm, which means it was a weaker trading session overall. Material developments in the war will continue to be more actionable for markets than scheduled economic data–especially this week. 

Econ Data / Events

Labor Costs

4.4 vs 3.5 f’cast, -1.9 prev

Market Movement Recap

08:51 AM Losing ground in choppy trading as oil rebounds. MBS down a quarter point and 10yr up 4.2bps at 4.389

09:54 AM weakest levels. MBS down 11 ticks (.34) and 10yr up 6.2bps at 4.409

12:30 PM Off lows, but choppy.  MBS down 5 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 2.6bps at 4.373

01:03 PM Bumpy 2 year Treasury auction causing weakness.  MBS down 3/8ths again and 10yr up 7.2bps at 4.42

03:33 PM recovering a bit after “war over soon” headlines. MBS still down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 3.8bps at 4.385

Highest Mortgage Rates Since August 2025

March 2026 continues to be an unpleasant month for mortgage rates–a fact almost exclusively due to the Iran war. Even if the war were to end today, there’s been sufficient disruption to infrastructure and a big enough initial spike in energy prices to create what economists refer to as “second round effects.” In simpler terms, this means that inflation expectations and interest rates will not immediately return to February’s levels simply because the war is over. That’s a premature conversation today when headlines regarding U.S. troop deployment caused rates to jump at 1pm ET. Many mortgage lenders repriced to higher levels after that with the average top tier 30yr fixed rate hitting 6.55% for the first time since August 2025.  Subsequent comments regarding de-escalation helped the bond market recover some of those initial losses, but the market would like to see a more ironclad announcement before reacting in a more meaningful way. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]

Victory For Cynics as Ceasefire Rebound is Already Over

Even though there were doubts about their scope and impact, yesterday morning’s headlines introduced the prospect of some sort of ceasefire in the Iran war. Markets traded accordingly, including the “doubts” part (i.e. there was an initial rebound yesterday and an additional rebound this morning). 10yr yields have now fully erased yesterday morning’s gains even though oil prices remain quite a bit lower.

eNote, AI, Servicing, Data Tools; Trigger Lead Adjustments; FICO Investigation; Home Price Appreciation is Complicated

Sometimes life comes down to a coin toss. Here in Virginia Beach, at the Southern Trust Mortgage Sales Summit, a conversation topic is originators not leaving their business to chance. Pricing practices are rarely left to chance, and Senator Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) sent a letter to the CEO of Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO), to inform the company of his investigation into FICO’s pricing practices in the mortgage credit scoring market. Public policy is not left to chance either, and tomorrow’s guest on Mortgage Matters at 2PM ET, presented by Lenders One, is Nicole Booth, the Head of Public Policy at Zillow Home Loans. Finally, yesterday’s bond market price action, driven by a tweet, might seem like a dice toss, but… This month’s STRATMOR piece is titled, “Mortgage Rates Are Not Random.” (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Quorum Federal Credit Union offering a broker outlet. Quorum empowers brokers to close more deals with flexible, high-LTV mortgage and HELOC solutions featuring up to 4 percent comp, low FICO options, and versatile programs for nearly every borrower scenario. Hear an Interview with Xactus’ Shelley Leonard and Experian’s Michele Bodda on shifts in credit scoring, opportunities to modernize data and workflows, misconceptions that slow progress, and how lenders should approach credit strategy in 2026.) Products, Services, and Software for Brokers and Lenders Less back-and-forth. More first-time-right verifications. Truework replaces manual verification waterfalls with a single automated platform, so underwriters, LOs, and ops can cut down the document chasing, conflicting numbers, and last-minute corrections. Lenders see up to 50 percent cost savings on verifications, with faster turn times, higher accuracy, and stronger R&W relief. Trusted by 4 of the top 5 lenders in the U.S., Truework gives your team verification results they can rely on. Learn more.