The 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell 2 basis points this week, Freddie Mac said, but other sources like Zillow and Lender Price reported larger drops.

National Mortgage News’ Digital Mortgage Conference is gearing up for its 10th edition; here’s a look back through the years from the previous nine shows.

An index of contract signings slipped 0.4% last month to 71.7, around where it’s lingered for much of the year, according to National Association of Realtors data released Thursday.

The median monthly home loan payment fell $45 in July from June, although some of those payments are more expensive compared to the same time last year.

The incident appears connected to recent social engineering campaigns, including attacks tied to Salesforce.

Generally Exciting, But Specifically Boring

Heading into the present week, it was incredibly unlikely that we’d see any exciting volatility in the bond market this week.  At the very least, we knew that it was really only Friday’s PCE data that carried any notable volatility potential. With 4 days down, the “boring” narrative has prevailed.  Like every other day this week, Thursday saw mild movement and low volatility with very little connection between events and market movement. But as it happens, the mild movements have all been in the same direction this week, and they’re starting to add up. To wit: 10yr yields just hit their lowest 3pm CME close since August 4th and the 2nd lowest since April. MBS are doing even better and mortgage rates reflect that. 

Econ Data / Events

Jobless Claims 

229.0K vs 230K f’cast, 235K prev

Continued Claims 

1954.0K vs 1970K f’cast, 1972K prev

Core PCE Prices QoQ FinalQ2

2.5% vs 2.6% f’cast, 3.5% prev

Corporate profitsQ2

2.0% vs -3.3% prev

GDPQ2

3.3% vs 3.1% f’cast, -0.5% prev

GDP deflatorQ2

2.% vs 2% f’cast, 3.8% prev

GDP Final SalesQ2

6.8% vs 6.3% f’cast, -3.1% prev

Market Movement Recap

09:29 AM Flat overnight and little changed since data.  MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up less than half a bp at 4.24

12:32 PM Best levels of the day heading into 7yr auction. 10yr down 2.2bps at 4.213.  MBS up 1 tick (.03).

03:37 PM Mostly flat in PM hours.  MBS still up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 2.2bps at 4.213

“Remember how when you were little you could just rip off your diaper and run around naked and everyone thought it was so cute and funny? Anyway, I need bail money.” Money makes the world go ‘round. Fed President Lisa Cook was fired earlier this week based on claims of occupancy fraud, and while I agree with many of you that this Commentary has been writing too much about politics lately, politics and the mortgage industry are certainly intertwined. There’s a nearly identical occupancy story coming out of Texas. “Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton and his wife, state Sen. Angela Paxton, are longtime owners of a $1.5 million house in a gated community in McKinney. In 2015, they snapped up a second home in Austin. Then another. The problem: Mortgages signed by the Paxtons contained inaccurate statements declaring that each of those three houses was their primary residence, enabling the now-estranged couple to improperly lock in low interest rates…” Of course, things should be equal in the eyes of the law, right? I’d like to believe enforcing it isn’t a political thing. Maybe things have gotten too political, or maybe people like being pissed off these days more than normal? Just ask a couple of former Phoenix Suns minority owners. A pair of them who were holdovers from the previous ownership group are suing the team, alleging that current Suns owner, and head of UWM, Mat Ishbia has refused access to internal records. It’s the sixth lawsuit against the team since November 2024. I think we had a national election around that time. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by Arrive Home. Arrive Home helps mortgage lenders connect creditworthy buyers with down payment assistance and affordable homeownership solutions, offering tools that empower lenders and uplift communities. Hear an interview with Trueworks Victor Kabdebon on data from recent homebuyer surveys pertaining to products and lender decisions.)

This morning’s economic calendar only looks robust on paper.  While quarterly GDP results in numerous line items, they’re not as important as they might sound. For instance, PCE prices are an important inflation index, but the version released with GDP applies to Q2 and is thus just revising already-released PCE data. Additionally, it is not capturing any of the July inflation that will be reported with tomorrow’s monthly PCE.  The same “stale” factor applies to everything in today’s GDP release (this is why GDP revisions don’t have nearly as much market movement potential as an initial release, which we won’t get until October). Jobless Claims data rarely has a big impact and today is no exception. While Continued Claims recovered slightly, it wasn’t a big enough bounce to be significant. Weekly claims continue to be boring.

Yields continue operating well within the post-NFP range, but with a friendlier trend since last week’s Jackson Hole speech.

There is no singular, official primary source for mortgage rate levels. The going rate is whatever can be locked/closed at any given lender. As such, we rely on surveys and data aggregations in order to routinely monitor the probable going rate.  The longest-standing weekly survey from Freddie Mac was updated today and, while it showed a decline to the lowest levels since October 2024 (something we agree with), it is too slow-moving to reflect the current reality. Freddie’s survey showed 6.56% today, and this would be based on the average of the 5 days from last Thursday through yesterday.  MND tracks daily rates based on objective rate sheet data from multiple lenders. We had the average top tier rate at 6.62% last Thursday, but it has fallen since then. To be precise, it fell quickly on Friday after Fed Chair Powell’s speech at Jackson Hole. From there, we’ve been in a narrow range this week, but each of the past 3 days have seen a modest tick lower. The net effect is an index level of 6.50% today–the lowest we’ve seen since October 3rd, even if only a hair lower than yesterday. It’s important to understand what 6.50% means in the context of our index.  To paraphrase our methodology, this is a best-case-scenario rate that assumes a 780+ credit score and 25% down payment on an owner-occupied purchase loan within the conforming loan limit. 6.50% would be a competitive average. Some lenders will be higher and lower–especially if buydown points come into play.

Borrowers argued the servicer’s $25 charge for expedited payoff quote statements is a “junk fee” and violates federal and state consumer protection laws.