Noticeably Lighter Volatility. Why?

Noticeably Lighter Volatility. Why?

Wednesday offered a welcome break from the pervasive volatility seen since the start of the Iran war. It was among the narrowest trading ranges of any single day in March, especially during domestic trading hours. This is somewhat surprising considering the preponderance of contradictory newswires and headlines concerning the state of the Iran war (i.e. ceasefire vs more strikes and negotiations vs no communication). If Iran is refuting U.S. claims regarding de-escalation, why would bonds be calmly in stronger territory? Simply put: U.S. claims regarding de-escalation matter more than verified agreements with Iran. If the U.S. wants to wind down the war, that’s what will happen and that’s what the bond market likes.

Econ Data / Events

Import Prices

1.3 vs 0.5 f’cast, 0.6 prev

Market Movement Recap

08:58 AM Choppy and slightly stronger. MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 3.7bps at 4.327

11:32 AM Near best levels. MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 5bps at 4.315

01:26 PM Relatively weak 5yr auction but no major reaction. MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 3.6bps at 4.329

03:06 PM Holding sideways at similar levels. MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 4.2bps at 4.323

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Rates Ease Despite Conflicting Iran War Headlines

The past 24 hours have seen multiple news stories with seemingly contradictory updates regarding the state of the Iran war. There’s a ceasefire. There’s no ceasefire. There’s negotiation. There’s no negotiation, etc. As far as the rate market is concerned, the most important development has been the general appearance of a shift toward diplomacy and resolution on the U.S. side. This has been enough for oil prices to preserve a majority of the drop seen at the start of the week.  Bond yields (which correlate with mortgage rates) have been doing even better than oil prices today. The net effect is the lowest average mortgage rates since last Thursday. Notably, these rates are still sharply higher than February’s and, apart from the past few days, the highest since early September, 2025. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]

Bonds Showing Some Optimism About Turning Point in The War

There have been various comments from U.S. officials about ending the war for several weeks (i.e. on March 9th, Trump said the war could be over soon). Yesterday’s developments (Trump comments on the war being “won” and the 30-day ceasefire news from Israel) are being taken more seriously by markets or at least seriously enough to get trading levels back to where they were after Monday morning’s ceasefire/talks news. Oddly enough, oil prices and bond yields are holding onto the gains despite Iran refuting negotiation claims and launching another wave of air strikes.