Mortgage Rates Dip Back Into The 5’s

This coverage is coming out earlier than normal due to a more interesting headline than normal. The average top-tier 30yr fixed rate fell back to 5.99% today, matching the levels seen only briefly back on January 9th, 2026 when the Fannie/Freddie bond buying plans were announced. Much like the last time, there’s always a risk that something happens to prompt a bond market reversal today. If that happens, mortgage lenders could raise rates in the middle of the day.  But unlike last time, mortgage rates have eased down to current levels in a much more gradual and–dare we say–sustainable way. After all, today’s improvement is only a moderate 0.05% vs Friday. Back on January 9th, the initial day-over-day jump was more than 0.20%. There’s no new news causing the improvement. The broader bond market has gradually improved to the best levels since November and the mortgage-backed securities market (the bonds that directly dictate mortgage rates) have performed better than normal vs the broader market due to Fannie/Freddie purchases.  As always, keep in mind that 5.99% is a “top-tier” average among multiple lenders. This means that for a scenario with high FICO, high down payment and no other hits to pricing, various lenders will be quoting 5.875, 6.00, and 6.125% predominantly. Also keep in mind that many rates are quoted with different levels of upfront costs. There’s no way to assess the strength of a rate quote without knowing the rest of those upfront costs.

General Risk Aversion Trade Helping Bonds

General Risk Aversion Trade Helping Bonds

Bonds began the day in just barely stronger territory but continued to improve throughout. The first rally followed the 8:20am CME open–a common time of day to see a bit of extra momentum and volume. The next leg of the rally played out in the 10am hour which is when stocks did all of their selling for the day. That dynamic lends itself to the conclusion that the broader market is trading in a “risk-off” pattern amid global trade uncertainty. 

Econ Data / Events

Factory Orders

-0.7 vs -0.5 f’cast, 2.7 prev

Market Movement Recap

09:52 AM Modestly stronger overnight and holding gains. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 2.6bps at 4.061

11:37 AM Best levels of the day. MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 5.5bps at 4.033

02:25 PM Holding at strongest levels. MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 6.2bps at 4.025

Stronger Start. Quiet Calendar

Bonds are starting the new week in slightly stronger territory, but still well inside the prevailing trading range. There were no standout market movers over the weekend although tariff and trade-related uncertainty may be generally weighing on investor sentiment to some small extent. The econ calendar is very quiet throughout the week with Friday’s PPI being the most relevant report (and that’s not saying much). This leaves markets more susceptible to trade and geopolitical headlines, but big moves would require big surprises. 

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