Calmly Holding in Super Strong Territory

Calmly Holding in Super Strong Territory

MBS may not be quite as high as they were yesterday, but in the bigger picture, today’s levels are right in line with the best we’ve seen in more than 3 years. More importantly, mortgage rates are verifiably at the best levels in more than 3 years. There was no major volatility or any remarkable econ data. Tomorrow’s calendar is similarly quiet. Stock/bond correlations broke down in the afternoon, but as bonds search for any sources of guidance, that correlation could certainly return if stocks are making bigger moves.

Econ Data / Events

ADP Weekly Payrolls

12.75k vs 10.25k prev

Case Shiller Home Prices-20 y/y (Dec)

1.4% vs 1.4% f’cast, 1.4% prev

CaseShiller 20 mm nsa (Dec)

-0.1% vs — f’cast, 0% prev

FHFA Home Price Index m/m (Dec)

0.1% vs 0.3% f’cast, 0.6% prev

FHFA Home Prices y/y (Dec)

1.8% vs — f’cast, 1.9% prev

Consumer Confidence

91.2 vs 87.0 f’cast, 89.0 prev

Market Movement Recap

08:57 AM Mostly flat overnight and not much movement so far. MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 0.8bps at 4.04

01:49 PM Modest recover after AM weakness. MBS down 1 tick (.03) again after being down 3 ticks (.09) at 10am. 10yr down 0.3bps at 4.030

03:47 PM Losing ground modestly into PM.  MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up half a bp at 4.038

Slower Start, More Sideways. Stock Lever in Play

Volume and volatility is lower this morning compared to yesterday, but the same theme of risk aversion looks to be in play, probably.  Why “probably?” Because the theme in question (risk aversion, or what we sometimes refer to as the “stock lever”) oftentimes makes it hard to distinguish between correlation and causality. All we know so far today is that both stocks and bond yields are sightly higher from yesterday’s lows and have been generally sideways so far today. The econ calendar remains light in terms of importance, despite plenty of line items.

Non-QM Pricing, Documentation, eSignature, AI Tools; Thoughts on New Starting Points for Borrowers

At the Optimal Blue Summit going on now, sessions range from AI to loan officer tools to market strategy, product unveilings built to transform pricing, trading, and profitability. Will AI help? A study published this month by the National Bureau of Economic Research found that among 6,000 CEOs, chief financial officers, and other executives from firms who responded to various business outlook surveys in the U.S., U.K., Germany, and Australia, the vast majority see little impact from AI on their operations. Speaking of which, today’s Mortgages With Millennials at 1PM ET, sponsored by Insellerate, Phil Ganz of Next Wave Mortgage discusses reducing operational friction while expanding access to homeownership, as well as down payment assistance strategy, digital systems, and how loan officers can better serve first time buyers in a margin conscious market. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by FirstClose. FirstClose Equity gets you to closings faster by empowering borrowers with vital property decisioning data. It is the only end-to-end digital HELOC & HEL solution built specifically for home equity. Hear an interview with Plantd’s Josh Dorfman on the intersection of sustainability, capital markets, housing, and pragmatic climate solutions for business and policy leaders.) Products, Services, and Software for Brokers and Lenders Disclosure speed is now a margin issue. Feewise is the enterprise disclosure manufacturing platform that turns mortgage compliance from bottleneck to business accelerator. Integrated into your existing technology stack and accessed from your POS or LOS, Feewise allows originators to self-serve LEs, CDs, CoCs, and full disclosure packages. Feewise provides the best possible starting point for every loan and serves all channels of business. Want to scale volume without adding staff? Ready to eliminate tolerance cures? Visit us at kiosk #17 inside the showroom floor at ICE Experience 2026, March 15-18. Contact info@feewise.com to schedule a product demonstration.

Mortgage Rates Match Multi-Year Low For 2nd Straight Day

The average top-tier mortgage rates made it back to 5.99% yesterday for the first time since January 9th and only the second time in more than 3 years. With rates holding perfectly steady today, this is the 3rd day that matches that multi-year low. In one important way, the past 2 days represent a bigger victory for rates. Back on January 9th, the MND rate index only hit 5.99 for a few hours before bouncing. The next month and a half saw the average well into the low 6s. Contrast that to the current case where we’ve approached 5.99% more slowly and, thus far, are holding it much more steadily. All that having been said, there’s never a guarantee that tomorrow’s rates will be as low even if there aren’t any economic reports that suggest a potentially volatile response. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]