The bank’s marketing, which hid the nature of its solicitations, led some borrowers to apply for cash-out refis that increased monthly payments, the OCC said.

Federal Reserve Gov. Stephen Miran Thursday said that the Iran war and tariffs will not have long-term impacts on inflation, but did say he is reconsidering his rate cut outlook for the year.

Three-quarters of buyers assume AI has already been embedded in the housing ecosystem, but 55% would prefer to work with a human to secure a mortgage.

While last year was the best for origination income since 2022, annual net servicing revenue for mortgage bankers was approximately 70% below 2024’s level.

This week’s Freddie Mac mortgage rate survey shows rates at the lowest in four weeks, but homebuyers are giving mixed signals even with improved purchase power.

On average, today’s top-tier 30 year fixed mortgage rates are exactly the same as yesterday’s. Rates are driven by the bond market and bonds continue waiting for bigger developments in the Iran war. At the moment, the market is in a sort of limbo as time remains on the 2-week ceasefire. In the meantime, there’s a multitude of lower consequence war-related headlines on any given day. These have caused a bit of back and forth volatility in bonds, but not enough directional movement to nudge rates very far in either direction since Tuesday.  

Volatility Picked Up After a Slow Start

This morning, more than halfway through the international trading day, bonds were on track for the narrowest trading range since February 24th. The low volatility didn’t last. Sellers surfaced in response to several war-related headlines. Bond yields followed oil prices higher from 9am through 1pm ET.  That said, it was still a fairly light day of movement in bonds with MBS only losing about an eighth of a point depending on when you look and 10yr yields up 3bps at 4.31+ in the final hour of trading. 

Econ Data / Events

Continued Claims (Apr)/04

1818.0K vs 1810K f’cast, 1794K prev

Jobless Claims (Apr)/11

207.0K vs 215K f’cast, 219K prev

Philly Fed Business Index (Apr)

26.7 vs 10 f’cast, 18.1 prev

Philly Fed Prices Paid (Apr)

59.30 vs — f’cast, 44.70 prev

Market Movement Recap

08:30 AM Giving up overnight gains before data and no change since. MBS unchanged and 10yr down half a bp at 4.279 (up from lows of 4.265).

10:04 AM 10yr yields moved up 1bp back to unchanged levels of 4.281 and MBS are now down 1 tick (.03)

01:16 PM MBS down an eighth. Lows of the day. 10yr up 3.1bps at 4.315. Highs of the day.

03:43 PM Flat afternoon.  MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 2.4bps at 4.308

The U.S. Census Bureau released a downloadable file containing estimates of the nation’s resident population by single year of age and sex as of July 1, 2025. Nationwide lenders are always analyzing branch locations and market share. America’s post-pandemic relocation surge is losing momentum, with interstate migration falling to a decade low as once-booming Sun Belt markets like Texas and Florida face declining inflows amid sharply reduced affordability. The motivations behind moving are shifting away from jobs and cost savings toward proximity to family, signaling a more cautious and less opportunistic consumer mindset. New migration patterns are emerging: more affordable Midwest states are regaining appeal, Nevada is surging due to its relative value compared to California, and smaller or less obvious destinations like Vermont and New Hampshire are attracting highly educated, homebuying newcomers seeking stability and lifestyle. Gen Z has become the most mobile generation, driving moves based on flexibility and opportunity. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are Sponsored by Truework. Replace costly, error-prone verification waterfalls with a single, fully automated VOIE solution that delivers faster, more accurate, GSE-ready reports. So, your team can close more loans with less effort and lower cost. Today’s has an interview with Berger Singerman’s Geoffrey Lottenberg on navigating the legal implications of AI in mortgage and lending processes.)

Thursday has thus far been the slowest and most sideways day since February 24th, before the start of the Iran war. A lull in war-related developments is likely helping. While there are plenty of isolated headlines, the only thing the market really cares about is the timeline for the war to be over. As such, the present ceasefire is a sort of limbo that’s clearly better than peak tension in late March, but not an “all clear” to jump back in the market (unless it’s the stock market, apparently). There are a few economic reports this morning, but no market reaction.

Office of Management and Budget Director Russell Vought told the House Budget Committee Wednesday that the Community Development Financial Institutions Fund is still a target for elimination by the administration because it promotes “woke” ideology.