Mortgage Rates Set to End Week Much Lower

While there are still a few hours left in the trading day, it’s a near certainty that this week will end with mortgage rates at meaningfully lower levels compared to last Friday. Today is only adding modestly to that trend, but that makes it the 8th straight business day where rates have either held steady or moved lower. On that note, it’s possibly worth considering that these sorts of winning streaks have definite life spans. We’ve certainly seen stretches of more than 10 business days without any upward movement in rates, but they’re very rare. Even then, if the streak were to end on Monday or Tuesday, it may only be a temporary blip before more improvement. The bigger-picture issue remains the state of the Iran war. If it officially ends, rates likely have more room to improve. If hostilities re-escalate, rates could move back up into the recently higher range. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]

Markets Were Skeptical of Mid-Day Peace Headlines and That Was a Good Instinct

Markets Were Skeptical of Mid-Day Peace Headlines and That Was a Good Instinct

A few hours into the trading session, newswires came out that seemed to offer the best hopes of a peace deal yet. Specifically, it said that Trump was in the situation room to make a final determination on the peace deal and that issues required for the infamous one page memo had already been agreed upon. Markets were surprisingly cautious about reading too much into that, although it briefly took yields to their lowest levels of the week. By the end of the day, we learned that no decision had been made and negotiations weren’t any farther along than already assumed based on the week’s earlier “close to signing the memo” news. Bonds faded back toward opening levels to end the day roughly unchanged. Next week brings more headline-watching as well as the month’s biggest slate of domestic econ data.

Econ Data / Events

Wholesale Inventories

0.5 vs 0.8 f’cast, 1.3 prev

Chicago PMI

62.7 vs 50.5 f’cast

Market Movement Recap

08:33 AM Fairly flat overnight and little-changed to start. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr unchanged at 4.445

10:57 AM Gaining ground after Trump “final decision pending” headlines. MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 1bp at 4.436

02:24 PM Fairly flat. MBS up an eighth and 10yr down half a bp at 4.438

Inventory Builds as New Home Sales Cool in April

New home sales pulled back in April after stronger readings in the prior two months. According to the latest Census Bureau and HUD data, sales of new single-family homes fell to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 622,000 , down 6.2% from March and 11.3% from a year earlier. Inventory moved slightly higher, with the number of new homes for sale rising to 489,000 , up 1.7% from March but still 2.2% below April 2025 levels. At the current sales pace, that left months’ supply at 9.4 months , up from 8.7 months in March and 8.6 months one year ago. Pricing was mixed. The median sales price climbed to $422,500 , up 8.0% from March and 2.2% from a year earlier. The average sales price ticked up to $508,800 , a modest 0.7% monthly gain, though it remained 1.1% below last year’s level.
Sales (MoM): -6.2%
Sales (YoY): -11.3%
Inventory (MoM): +1.7%
Inventory (YoY): -2.2%
Months’ Supply: 9.4 (up from 8.7 prior month; 8.6 YoY)
Median Price: $422,500
Average Price: $508,800

No Surprise: Last Week’s Higher Rates Hit Refinance Demand

Mortgage applications fell sharply last week as higher borrowing costs continued to pressure refinance demand, while purchase activity showed a bit more resilience. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported an 8.5% decrease in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending May 22. The decline was driven largely by a steep drop in refinance activity. The Refinance Index fell 18% from the previous week, though refinance demand remained 19% higher than the same period one year ago. Purchase activity held relatively steady despite the rate environment. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index slipped just 0.4% week over week and remained 5% above year-ago levels. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate increased to 6.65% from 6.56%, reaching its highest level since August 2025. MBA’s Joel Kan notes the steady climb in rates over the past five weeks pushed many borrowers out of the refinance market. Additionally, Kan said refinance activity weakened across nearly every category last week, noting that “conventional refinances were down 14 percent, along with an 18 percent decrease for FHA applications and a 34 percent decrease for VA applications.” He added that refinances accounted for just 37.5% of total mortgage activity, “the lowest share since June 2025.” Looking ahead to next week’s data, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a rebound given the relatively strong recovery in mortgage rates (now at their lowest daily levels in more than 2 weeks).

Annual Home Price Appreciation Staying Positive, But Just Barely

Home price appreciation slowed further in March and through the first quarter of 2026, according to the latest data from both FHFA and the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Indices. While national prices continued to edge higher on a nominal basis, both reports pointed to a housing market struggling to maintain momentum as affordability pressures and elevated mortgage rates continued to weigh on demand. FHFA reported that U.S. house prices rose 1.7% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2026, matching the prior quarter’s annual pace. On a quarterly basis, prices increased 0.5% from Q4 2025, while the agency’s seasonally adjusted monthly index posted a modest 0.1% gain in March from February. Regional FHFA data continued to show a sharply divided housing market. Seven of the nine census divisions posted annual price gains, led by the East North Central division at +4.4% . By contrast, the West South Central division recorded a 0.7% decline . At the state level, Illinois led annual appreciation at 7.3% , while Colorado posted the steepest decline at -2.4% . Metro-level results reflected similar divergence. FHFA said home prices increased in 65 of the 100 largest metropolitan areas over the past year, with Elgin, Illinois posting the strongest appreciation at 10.8% . Meanwhile, Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, Texas recorded the largest decline at -6.9% , underscoring ongoing softness across portions of the Sun Belt.