Mortgage Rates Near Lowest Levels Since October

Officially, there were 2 days at the end of November where the average lender’s 30yr fixed rates were just a hair lower (0.02% difference).  Otherwise, today’s rates would be the lowest since late October. The improvement follows this morning’s release of November’s Consumer Price Index (CPI). Inflation was so far below expectations that it raised new questions about just how much the government shutdown impacted data collection. The market still treated it as good news for rates, but most of the improvement was already in place before the data came out. CPI marked the last of 2025’s top tier economic reports when it comes to potential impacts on rates. This doesn’t mean rates won’t move between now and January–only that they’re far less likely to make any big changes based on economic reports.

Limited Follow-Through After Shockingly Big Miss

Limited Follow-Through After Shockingly Big Miss

If you told the average trader that today’s core CPI would come in at 2.6% vs 3.0% year over year, they would have expected a much bigger reaction than we saw today. Ironically, the size of the miss may be one of those reasons. It’s so far outside the realm of expected possibilities that traders immediately assumed the presence of legitimate issues with November’s data collection. Nonetheless, it was worth a moderate extension of the overnight rally.

Econ Data / Events

Continued Claims (Dec)/06

1,897K vs 1930K f’cast, 1838K prev

Jobless Claims (Dec)/13

224K vs 225K f’cast, 236K prev

Philly Fed Business Index (Dec)

-10.2 vs 3 f’cast, -1.7 prev

Philly Fed Prices Paid (Dec)

43.60 vs — f’cast, 56.10 prev

y/y CORE CPI (Nov)

2.6% vs 3% f’cast, 3.0% prev

y/y Headline CPI (Nov)

2.7% vs 3.1% f’cast, 3.0% prev

Market Movement Recap

08:47 AM Rallying after CPI data. MBS up a quarter point and 10yr down 4.4bps at 4.115

12:18 PM Off best levels. MBS still up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 3.1bps at 4.127

02:56 PM MBS up 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr down 4.2bps at 4.117

Big Drop in Annual CPI, But Only a Cautious Rally So Far

Great news for bonds on the inflation front this morning: Core annual inflation came in at 2.6% compared to a 3.0% forecast and 3.0% last time.  It’s the lowest reading of the cycle and the first attempt to break below the stagnant sideways/elevated levels that have prevented more aggressive Fed rate cuts. Despite those facts, the bond market is only rallying moderately (but certainly rallying). Traders could be skeptical about the thoroughness of post-shutdown data collection, or this could foreshadow year-end bearish biases. Whatever the case, the data itself was better for bonds than anyone could have hoped for (and better than any economist predicted).  NOTE: there is no month-over-month data due to the non-existence of October CPI.

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