POS, Retention Tools, Consumer Direct Workshop and Shows; Construction Psychology; Data on Tap

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Mortgage Rates Perfectly Unchanged to Start New Week

Despite the elevated volatility risk heading into the weekend, mortgage rates are starting the week in exactly the same territory compared to Friday afternoon. As always, our rate tracking refers to top-tier 30-year fixed rates for the average lender. The absence of meaningful movement in the underlying bond market is a testament to an increasingly high bar of relevance for war-related news. Specifically, the Iran war is the main source of inspiration not only for oil prices, but also for the bonds that dictate interest rates.  Earlier in the war, almost any headline had a visible impact on bonds. But now it’s only the most significant developments. Those are harder to come by in late April as investors are basically waiting for either an official and permanent ceasefire, or a catastrophic re-escalation. Anything in between has proven to be fairly uninteresting when it comes to bond market influence.

Modest Weakness, But Range Persists

Modest Weakness, But Range Persists

Bonds lost ground today, but not for any particular reason. Most importantly, there was no major reaction to the lack of progress in peace talks over the weekend (which would have been hard considering the talks didn’t happen). Earlier in the war, this sort of development would have had a more noticeable impact. At this point, markets are waiting on the biggest news. Until that news breaks, bonds are content to wander aimlessly in the same sideways range that’s been intact for the entire month. For those who insist on assigning blame for today’s modestly higher yields, the absence of peace talks was worth maybe a third of it. Beyond that, we’d consider things like the Treasury auction cycle and asset allocation among investors chasing all-time highs in stocks. 

Market Movement Recap

09:13 AM Bonds modestly weaker on stalled peace talks. 10yr up 1.4bps at 4.317 and MBS down 3 ticks (.09).

11:48 AM MBS down 5 ticks (.16) on the day and an eight from the highs. 10yr up 2.6bps at 4.329

02:22 PM 10yr up 3.3bps at 4.335 and MBS still down 5 ticks (.16)

Minimal Change Despite Lack of Progress in Peace Talks

The word of the day is “stalled.” You can’t get far reading top news stories over the weekend without seeing it in reference to the negotiations that looked at least somewhat possible on Friday afternoon. At that time, official word was that Witkoff/Kushner were heading to Pakistan on Saturday morning to meet with Iran’s FM Araghchi, but the US contingent never made the trek. Now this morning there are additional reports that a resumption of military operations is being considered. One would think this would make for a big hit to financial markets, but oil prices and bond yields are only modestly higher. And stocks are actually in slightly stronger territory, once again pushing new all-time highs.