Perfectly Acceptable Conclusion to a Potentially Volatile Week

Perfectly Acceptable Conclusion to a Potentially Volatile Week

With markets closed for the Juneteenth holiday on Friday, Thursday marked the end of the trading week. Considering the sell-off on Wednesday afternoon, the week had the potential to end on an uncomfortably volatile note. Instead, bonds pushed back nicely in the other direction–even though MBS didn’t recoup as much of their losses as 10yr Treasuries. True, there is some sense of foreboding in the inability of 10yr yields to move below 4.42%, but all told, the week was actually surprisingly calm after factoring in Thursday’s gains.

Econ Data / Events

Continued Claims (Jun)/06

1,810K vs 1800K f’cast, 1795K prev

Jobless Claims (Jun)/13

226K vs 225K f’cast, 229K prev

Philly Fed Business Index (Jun)

10.3 vs 10 f’cast, -0.4 prev

Philly Fed Prices Paid (Jun)

53.20 vs — f’cast, 47.90 prev

Market Movement Recap

08:55 AM Bonds recover much of post-Fed sell-ff overnight, but mostly in the long end. 2yr yields lost more ground. 10yr yields are down 5bps at 4.446.  MBS are up just under a quarter point.

10:24 AM MBS up 9 ticks (.28) and 10yr down 6.3bps at 4.434

03:02 PM MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 4.2bps at 4.454

Mortgage Applications Give Back Some of Last Week’s Gains

Mortgage applications pulled back last week as rates moved around in response to fresh inflation data and shifting geopolitical headlines. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 3.8% decline in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending June 12. Refinance activity accounted for much of the slowdown. The Refinance Index fell 5% from the previous week, though it remained 17% above the same period one year ago. Purchase demand also softened, but has generally done a better job of holding near multi-year highs. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3% week over week and was 3% higher than a year ago. “Last week’s CPI data showed that inflation continued to move higher, putting upward pressure on rates early in the week, but growing optimism regarding the opening of the Strait of Hormuz brought rates down again by the end of the week,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s SVP and chief economist. He said the net effect was a drop in both purchase and refinance activity, with purchase applications still modestly ahead of last year’s pace and conventional purchase volume showing stronger growth than government lending. Refinance share of mortgage activity edged up to 40.3% from 40.2%, while the ARM share slipped to 8.5% from 8.6%. Government-backed application shares were mixed. FHA share increased to 17.5% from 17.4%, while VA share declined to 12.9% from 13.4%. USDA share was unchanged at 0.4% .