As the world is watching the chicks learn to fly on the eagle cam, in the human world there are more “For Sale” signs. You know that problem we’ve had with inventory for years? Although all real estate is local, perhaps the inventory issue is over: U.S. home sellers are sitting on nearly $700 billion worth of listings, an all-time high. In addition, the U.S. housing market has nearly 500,000 more sellers than buyers, the most on record. You can guess the impact on home prices if it plays out. Keeping on with stats, the NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said existing home sales will increase by 6% in 2025 and by 11% in 2026 during the “Residential Economic Issues & Trends Forum” at the NAR 2025 REALTORS® Legislative Meetings. Yun forecasted that new-home sales will rise by 10% in 2025 and by 5% in 2026, the median home price will climb by 3% in 2025 and by 4% in 2026 and that mortgage rates will average 6.4% in the second half of 2025 and 6.1% in 2026. “The housing market remains very difficult at the moment… Part of the delay in recovery is because the Federal Reserve has changed its outlook and appears to be on pause for a longer period.” (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by CreditXpert, the credit optimization platform that helps today’s top mortgage originators and more than 60,000 mortgage professionals qualify more applicants, make more competitive offers, reduce LLPA premiums, and close more loans. Hear an interview with Partners Credit’s Tracey King on the evolving conversation around credit costs, what lenders should understand about FICO’s role, and how early credit data signals provide a valuable lens into future market activity.)

The software firm will employ Wolters Kluwer’s technology that allow it to offer hybrid closings as well as remote online notarizations through its platform.

The San Francisco-based bank was long hamstrung by a regulatory order that kept it under $1.95 trillion of assets. Now Wells can hit the gas on business lines it had kept idle.

The defunct Trident Mortgage, whose obligations were handled by Home Services of America, was accused of “systemic racism” in lending around Philadelphia.

The new notes redeem older ones issued in 2018 and address the kind of near-term obligation that analysts have monitored closely at nonbank mortgage firms.

The Detroit company intends to pay at least $1.9 billion of the servicer’s senior notes due through 2028, and could cover another $3 billion due through 2032.

JOLTS Data Didn’t Help, But it Didn’t Hurt Much Either

Bonds were moderately stronger overnight and then weaker after the 10am JOLTS data. The data itself was mixed with Job Openings higher (bad for rates) and job quits lower (good for rates). The headline took precedence and pushed yields back into higher territory on the day. Selling ebbed in the PM hours and MBS ultimately made it back to positive territory. Headlines regarding the Senate taking up the budget bill are ramping up, but with no discernible impact on the bond market so far.  Bottom line, a roughly unchanged close in bonds requires very little explanation.  On to the next data with ISM Services on Wednesday!

Econ Data / Events

Job Openings

7.391m vs 7.1m f’cast, 7.2 prev

Job Quits (lower is better for rates)

3.194m vs 3.332m prev

Market Movement Recap

09:57 AM Slightly stronger overnight.  MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 3.7bps at 4.409 ahead of JOLTS data.

10:44 AM Weaker after data.  MBS unchanged and 10yr up half a bp at 4.441

12:59 PM 10yr yields are up 2.4bps at 4.47 and MBS down nearly an eighth on the day.

04:26 PM Decent recovery.  MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr close to unchanged at 4.451

The combined prices of properties on the market for more than 60 days currently make up close to half of total unsold dollar volume, according to Redfin.

The company wants some holders of bonds due next year to allow a higher debt-to-equity ratio so it can pursue strong returns while managing certain risks.

Fischer, who served on the central bank boards of both Israel and the United States and served as the Federal Reserve vice chair from 2014 until 2017, died Saturday at age 81.