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With the Federal Reserve decision largely factored in, Jerome Powell’s comments on future outlook is more likely to influence the housing market.

November rate locks fell seasonally but hit their strongest level since 2021, led by refis, while lenders shifted more loans to the GSE cash window.

Home equity is becoming a data-driven asset that demands sharper valuation and analytics as lending options expand, according to Clear Capital’s EVP of Strategy and Growth.

Hartford, Connecticut, Rochester, New York, and Worcester, Massachusetts, headed the list of the 100 largest metro areas in the country, according to Realtor.com.

Sen. Hassan sent letters to corporate owners of manufactured housing communities, looking for answers on affordability and living conditions for their residents.

Seasonally adjusted mortgage application activity rose 4.8% last week, according to MBA’s Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 5. Unadjusted applications jumped 49% from the prior week, reflecting a rebound following the Thanksgiving-related slowdown. The Refinance Index surged 14% from the previous week and remains 88% higher than the same week one year ago—another strong year-over-year showing as borrowers respond to modest rate improvement, particularly in FHA products. Purchase activity was softer on a seasonally adjusted basis, slipping 2% from the prior week. Unadjusted purchase applications increased 32% week-over-week due to the holiday comparison and are running 19% above last year’s pace, supported by gradually improving affordability and inventory conditions. “Compared to the prior week’s data, which included an adjustment for the Thanksgiving holiday, mortgage application activity increased last week, driven by an uptick in refinance applications,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Conventional refinance applications were up almost 8 percent and government refinances were up 24 percent as the FHA rate dipped to its lowest level since September 2024. Conventional purchase applications were down for the week, but there was a 5 percent increase in FHA purchase applications as prospective homebuyers continue to seek lower downpayment loans. Overall purchase applications continued to run ahead of 2024’s pace as broader housing inventory and affordability conditions improve gradually.”

The Fed cut its policy rate by 0.25% today and mortgage rates moved lower after the announcement. That said, those two developments are not related. In fact, there was no movement in the bonds that underlie mortgage rates when the rate cut was announced. Instead, the market (and rates) moved in response to Fed Chair Powell’s press conference. While there is a mistaken belief that such press conferences “always” result in upward pressure on rates, today shows they can go both ways. Key comments that may have helped: Powell: Job gains could have been overstated in recent months Powell: Growing evidence that inflation is coming down Powell: Rates are now in a high range of neutral The reference to “neutral” means the Fed Funds Rate is near the levels that should neither help nor hurt the economy. Being in the higher end of that range means there could be room for another rate cut or two in 2026. This possibility was already reflected in the rate forecasts that came out with today’s announcement, but the market appreciated hearing it from Powell. Up until Powell’s press conference, mortgage rates had been little changed from yesterday. Afterward, most lenders made mid-day changes resulting in the lowest rates of the week.

Powell Avoided Throwing Cold Water on Rate Outlook. Bonds Approved

Today’s gains ended up being all about Powell’s press conference. While there were a few potentially friendly comments (current rates in high end of neutral range, recent job gains overstated, no decision yet on January, inflation coming down), we can also consider that Powell simply avoided the same sort of hawkish reminders seen in the last press conference.  On a day where bonds had already been selling fairly aggressively for 2 weeks, this could be all the market needed to breathe a sigh of relief and reinforce the ceiling of the prevailing trading range. All in all a fairly tame Fed day reaction, but one with a happy ending nonetheless. 

Econ Data / Events

Employment costs Q3

0.8% vs 0.9% f’cast, 0.9% prev

Market Movement Recap

08:46 AM Slightly weaker overnight and little-changed so far. 10yr up 1.1bps at 4.197. MBS up 2 ticks (.06).

11:29 AM Best levels of the day. MBS up 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr down 2.4bps at 4.162

02:40 PM No major volatility since Fed announcement.  Slightly weaker as Powell begins speaking.  MBS still up a quarter point. 10yr down 1.3bps at 4.176

03:09 PM MBS up 3/8ths and 10yr down 4.1bps at 4.145.

The company’s latest funding announcement caps off a year of tailwinds that propelled growth for home equity investment platforms and related lending products.