On some occasions, a rate announcement from the Federal Reserve (even one that results in no change to the Fed Funds Rate) can cause a huge move in mortgage rates. Today was not one of those days, but in its defense, it was never that likely to be. In order for a Fed announcement to have a big impact, it has to surprise the market in some way. A rate cut (or absence thereof) is rarely a surprise these days. Instead, the market is more likely to receive new information via the Fed’s economic projections and the Chair’s press conference. Economic projections come out every other meeting and this wasn’t one of them. So any chance of excitement rested with Powell’s press conference. But Powell stayed perfectly on-script, striking a balance between hope and caution. Financial markets agreed. There was essentially no reaction to any of today’s Fed events in stocks or bonds. Flat bonds = flat mortgage rates all else equal. Today’s average rate was microscopically higher than yesterday’s, but that happened well before the Fed announcement and not for any specific reasons. 

No Surprises From Powell. No Major Movement in Rates

As expected, the Fed held rates steady today. The statement was moderately more hawkish in that it acknowledged progress on the labor market front and overall economy. To the very small extent that the statement was hawkish, Powell’s press conference could be viewed as counterbalancing due to the non-threatening characterization of inflation and ongoing openness to additional easing if conditions justify it.  Bonds are heading out the door almost exactly in line with opening levels and there wasn’t much movement in between.

Market Movement Recap

09:24 AM Just barely stronger overnight and sideways so far this morning. MBS unchanged and 10yr effectively unchanged at 4.248.

12:38 PM MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 1.3bps at 4.259

03:10 PM Limited reaction to Fed.  Gaining some ground as Powell presser continues.  MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr unchanged at 4.246

Rates actually declined or remained flat over a two-year period in 15 states, including Florida, with natural disasters and tariffs affecting 2026’s movements.

The Tulsa, Oklahoma-based bank expects the pace of loan growth to quicken this year, driven in part by its nine-month-old warehouse lending business.

Founding partner Bob Lyons will help ensure continuity. Frank Pallotta and Kathleen Koprowski will lead an advisory board for the auditing and consulting firm.

While FHFA reported a year-over-year increase in national home values in November, the Case-Shiller HPI saw flat annual growth as well as monthly decreases.

Treasury yields are stuck, but gold and the dollar are flashing unusual signals that could push rates after the FOMC, according to the CEO of IF Securities.

Gradual Weakness After AM Gains

Bonds began the day in weaker territory, but logged some solid gains in the first few hours. A small portion of the improvement could be arguably linked to the lowest Consumer Confidence reading since 2014 and the lowest “labor differential” of the present cycle (labor differential measures the spread between those who say there ample jobs available vs those who say jobs are hard to find). Shortly thereafter, yields began drifting higher. There was a barely noticeable bump toward weaker levels after a lackluster 5yr Treasury auction, but it could barely be distinguished from the typical random drift. 10yr yields refused to re-enter the sub-4.20% range. The Fed is on deck tomorrow, although with less than the normal amount of volatility potential (no dot plot, and near-zero odds of a rate cut or other policy shift).

Econ Data / Events

ADP Employment Change Weekly

7.75K vs 8.0K prev

consumer confidence

84.5  vs 90.9 f’cast, 94.2 prev

Labor Differential (jobs plentiful vs jobs scarce)

3.1 vs 5.9 prev
new cycle low

Market Movement Recap

08:15 AM Moderately weaker overnight with 10yr up 2bps at 4.233.  MBS are outperforming along with the shorter end of the yield curve. 5.0 coupons are starting out just 1 tick (.03) weaker.

12:53 PM Decent recovery in the 9am hour and flat since then. MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up less than half a bp at 4.217

03:23 PM Off best levels, but gently.  MBS still up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 1.6bps at 4.229

The regulator, in an audit with the Department of Homeland Security, found almost 6,000 ineligible non-American tenants in the units it supports.

The $69 billion sale of two-year notes was awarded at 3.580%, more than a basis point below its yield at the bidding deadline.