On August 1st, Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) not only came out weaker than expected, but the previous two reports were also revised significantly lower. This is the report that generated buzz over the “revisions” in general, as those particular revisions created a drastically different picture of the labor market in RECENT months. Speaking of recent, today’s NFP revision headline may seem important because it removed an average of 75k jobs per month, but it pertains to a time frame of March 2024 through March 2025.  In other words, these are just numbers on a screen with no meaning. The economic realities of that time frame are already well known and thoroughly reflected in a multitude of other data. Today’s revision just slaps a different label on ancient history. Month-to-month changes are infinitely more important. More importantly, the market reaction has the final say in this matter and it’s telling you not to care.

Tomorrow I head from Boise to Jackson for the Mississippi Mortgage Banker’s Fall Conference. Certainly a topic in my email in-box and at events is how Freddie and Fannie’s market share is ebbing, and at noon PT, 3PM ET, Capital Markets Wrap (presented by Polly) will explore if F&F are fading from prominence amid the rise of alternative products, whether the market is getting ahead of itself in expecting mortgage rates to come down and what that means for lenders and investors, take a look at ARM demand and pricing, and discuss how hedging strategies shift during Fed easing cycles. At “the top of the funnel,” all of the news about occupancy fraud inspired attorney and Mortgage Musings author Brian Levy to provide his thoughts about the nuances of the topic in his latest Mortgage Musing. Sign up here to receive Levy’s Musings delivered directly to your email or you can find it on the Chrisman Commentary’s Thought Leadership page. And while we’re at the “top of the funnel,” according to Curinos’ new proprietary application index, refinances increased 47 percent in August while the purchase index decreased 2 percent for August as a whole. August 2025 funded mortgage volume decreased 4% YoY and decreased 6% MoM. Curinos sources a statistically significant data set directly from lenders to produce these benchmark figures. We drill into this data further here. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by Indecomm. Streamlining operations with the genius blend of automation, AI, and services. Achieve practical digital transformation and real operational impact with Indecomm’s purpose-built mortgage solutions. Hear an interview with Call Equity’s Mel Lund on how operations and sales can assist one another to drive origination volume.)

Black homeownership fell to 43.9% this summer, its lowest since 2021, as rising unemployment and federal layoffs widened housing gaps across demographics.

US Chief Justice John Roberts let President Donald Trump temporarily oust a Democratic member of the Federal Trade Commission, signaling that the Supreme Court is likely to back Trump’s bid to assert control over the independent agency.

White House National Economic Council NEC Director Kevin Hassett endorsed insulating the Fed from political pressure but echoed Trump allies’ calls for reevaluating its mission.

Premiums for property insurance have risen over 69% since 2019, far outpacing other components of the monthly mortgage payment, ICE Mortgage Technology found.

California sellers of older homes in high-risk areas must disclose to potential buyers not only a dwelling’s susceptibility to fire but what they’ve done to address those vulnerabilities.

“When the economy is good, people drink. When the economy is bad, people drink. The moral? Invest in alcohol.” Here in Boise at the PNMLC, the comments about Friday’s jobs data (showing a worsening employment picture) and economy ranged from, “It’s about time we have accurate numbers that we can rely upon” to “The Trump Administration is still blaming the people compiling the numbers as opposed to the actual policies… like if you had an NFL owner who just lost big and instead of changing the quarterback or firing the coach, they axed the scoreboard operator.” “Tech” is also a discussion topic, and I received this note. “We’re a nationwide lender, and grown, and have begun the hunt for a new Point of Sale system. Any suggestions?” It depends on your channels, size, and needs (present and future), but a solid place to start is at this Marketplace, a free centralized hub for vendors and service providers across the mortgage industry to be viewed by lenders. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by Indecomm. Streamlining operations with the genius blend of automation, AI, and services. Achieve practical digital transformation and real operational impact with Indecomm’s purpose-built mortgage solutions. Hear an interview with Polunsky Beitel Green’s Marty Green on Fed Governor Cook’s timeline for recourse in the courts over her recent firing and various other political happenings as we approach next week’s FOMC meeting.) Company Sponsored Webinars

More Gains Despite Absence of New Motivation

There’s not much to say about Monday other than “we’ll take it!” Despite an absence of new motivations (today’s data wasn’t in the “market mover” category), bonds added to last week’s already brisk rally.  Longer-term yields outperformed as the yield curve continued a correction from the longer-term highs/wides hit last Tue/Wed.  In other words, some of the motivation could be coming from curve traders who are more concerned with how bonds perform against one another than with simple gains/losses.

Market Movement Recap

09:29 AM Fairly flat overnight, but rallying now. MBS up an eighth in 5.5 coupon and almost a quarter in 5.0 coupon. 10yr down 3.1bps at 4.056

11:31 AM Holding near strongest levels after mini bounce at 10:50am.  5.0 MBS up a quarter point and 10yr down just under 4bps at 4.05

02:04 PM Some weakness heading into OM hours, but holding the stronger range for now.  5.0 MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 3.2bps at 4.055

To their credit, most mortgage lenders did an admirable job of aggressively pricing-in the bond market rally after last Friday’s jobs report. Many mortgage market pros repeat the phrase “stairs down, escalator up” when it comes to the pace at which lenders change rates. The idea is that lenders are quicker to raise rates than cut them, but this clearly wasn’t the case this time. Because of that healthy level of aggression, there wasn’t as much room for improvement at the start of the new week compared to other Mondays that follow weak jobs report numbers. Case in point, after the August 1st jobs report, the following Monday accounted for more than a quarter of the 2-day drop in rates.  Compare that to today which only accounted for about 5% of the 2-day drop. But gains are gains, and the small improvement brings the average top tier 30yr fixed rate to another 11-month low. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]