Consumers are more interested in reporting rental pays to the credit bureaus as landlords become less involved, according to TransUnion.

Intent typically plays a key role in whether or not allegations that a borrower misrepresented a property’s status can be proved, mortgage industry experts say.

Treasuries rose, led by short-dated notes, after a reading on wholesale inflation came in weaker than expected, cementing bets that the Federal Reserve will start to cut interest rates next week.

Wednesday brought the first of this week’s two key inflation reports. While the Producer Price Index (PPI) is the lesser of the two in terms of potential impact on rates, it came in far enough below expectations to make for a measurable improvement. The catch is that the improvement in question pertains to the underlying bond market. Before the data, bonds were slightly weaker, thus suggesting slightly higher rates.  But lenders don’t release their rates for the day until a few hours of trading have commenced.  This leaves time for markets to react to early AM data such as today’s PPI. Bottom line, PPI helped bonds which, in turn, helped rates hold steady as opposed to drift a bit higher. 

Helpful Data and Treasury Auction Set High Bar For CPI

Another fairly straightforward day for the bond market with friendly econ data and a strong 10yr Treasury auction both helping push yields lower. If it seems like the size of the miss in the PPI data justified a bigger move, consider the fact that it’s an incredibly volatile data series. Additionally, last month’s PPI created “base effect” issues (i.e. it was so high that today’s -0.1% reading leaves the 2 month annualized level at 3.6%–still too high. Nonetheless, it was good enough news for bonds to push back against overnight weakness.  The afternoon’s 10yr auction helped bring yields to new lows for the day before ebbing slightly higher in the afternoon. Thursday AM’s CPI release is this week’s big to-do from a potential volatility standpoint.

Econ Data / Events

Core Producer Prices MM (Aug)

-0.1% vs 0.3% f’cast, 0.9% prev

Core Producer Prices YY (Aug)

2.8% vs 3.5% f’cast, 3.7% prev

Producer Prices (Aug)

-0.1% vs 0.3% f’cast, 0.9% prev

Market Movement Recap

09:24 AM Stronger after PPI data.  MBS up roughly 1/8th and 10yr down 2.8bps at 4.055

11:59 AM Best levels.  MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 3.7bps at 4.046

01:05 PM Strong 10yr auction prompts just a bit more buying in TSYs.  10yr now down 5.7bps at 4.026.  MBS still up 5 ticks in 5.5 coupons, but almost 3/8ths in 5.0 coupons. 

04:13 PM MBS now up 3 ticks (.09) in 5.5 coupons and 6 ticks (.19) in 5.0 coupons.  Both are down about an eighth from highs.  10yr down 3.8bps at 4.046

Of the two inflation reports out this week, PPI is the lesser of the two in terms of importance, but it came in far enough below forecasts to prompt some bond buying to start the day. PPI is a complex report relative to CPI, but one of the simplest takeaways from today’s data is that wholesalers drastically decreased the extent to which they were passing along higher costs via margins. Another simple takeaway is that a lot of today’s apparent downward surge had to do with the previous report’s big upward surge. Even after revisions, last month’s PPI rose at 0.7%, thus creating a low bar for today’s data to come in soft. Looked at another way, the average monthly PPI over the past two months would still be 0.3% (or 3.6% annually) when taking the average of the super hot July and super cool August numbers.

Mortgage applications jumped 9.2% last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s survey for the week ending September 5, 2025. The results included an adjustment for the Labor Day holiday. “Mortgage rates declined for the second consecutive week as Treasury yields moved lower on data indicating that the labor market is weakening. The 30-year fixed rate decreased to 6.49 percent, down 20 basis points over the past two weeks to the lowest since October 2024,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “The downward rate movement spurred the strongest week of borrower demand since 2022, with both purchase and refinance applications moving higher. Purchase applications increased to the highest level since July and continued to run more than 20 percent ahead of last year’s pace. There was also a pickup in ARM applications, both in terms of level and share, as ARM rates were considerably lower than fixed rate loans, which typically benefits homebuyers.” The Refinance Index rose 12% from the previous week and is 34% higher than the same week a year ago. The Purchase Index increased 7% on a seasonally adjusted basis and is now 23% higher than last year’s level. The refinance share of total mortgage applications increased to 48.8%. ARM share rose to 9.2%. FHA share decreased to 18.5%, while VA share climbed to 15.3%. Mortgage Rate Summary:
30yr Fixed: 6.49% (from 6.64%) | Points: 0.56 (from 0.59)
15yr Fixed: 5.70% (from 5.84%) | Points: 0.55 (from 0.84)
Jumbo 30yr: 6.44% (from 6.58%) | Points: 0.48 (from 0.39)
FHA: 6.27% (from 6.31%) | Points: 0.68 (from 0.74)
5/1 ARM: 5.77% (from 5.90%) | Points: 0.63 (from 0.34)

“Rob, I hate it when mom and dad fight. Will this Pulte/Bessent, FHFA/Treasury tussle impact mortgage rates?” Probably not; it hasn’t so far. Director Pulte is certainly in the news. Occupancy isn’t a partisan issue, right?! FHFA Director Pulte, who continues to point out potential fraud by Fed. Governor Lisa Cook (who a Federal judge ruled yesterday could stay in her post), has two close relatives who have declared the same owner-occupied status on two homes in two different states! Don’t blame me: read about it in CNBC and Reuters. “Mark and Julie Pulte, the father and stepmother of Bill Pulte, President Donald Trump’s appointee as director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, since 2020 have claimed so-called ‘homestead exemptions’ for residences in wealthy neighborhoods in both Michigan and Florida…” What about news closer to regular lending? Chase launched some publicity with a limited-time “mortgage rate refinance sale.” The Chase promotion is on rate-and-term and cash-out refinances through Sunday, Sept. 21. Customers must lock in their refinancing rate during this period to earn the discount. How much of a discount? According to Chase, “Discounts will vary by mortgage product and location.” (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by Indecomm. Streamlining operations with the genius blend of automation, AI, and services. Achieve practical digital transformation and real operational impact with Indecomm’s purpose-built mortgage solutions. Hear an interview with MCT’s Phil Rasori on shifting coverage in response to policy and economic changes, to the expansion of ARM and non-QM products, the growing role of AI in hedging and analytics, evolving tech freeing up staff for strategic work, and the rising demands placed on modern capital markets departments.)

Besides upsizing the IPO, Figure’s announced its technology is supporting Longbridge Financial’s senior-specific home equity line of credit rollout.

The Foreclosure Abuse and Prevention Act has reportedly stopped one company from buying loans in the New York, others are said to be paying less for them.