Waiting on Details as Bonds Reinforce The Range

It was a forgettable trading day, but at least slightly stronger for the bond market. The only notable volume and volatility surrounded the 9:30am NYSE open. Apart from that, yields were basically flat at slightly stronger levels starting around 4am ET.  Today’s only meaningful order of business was to wait and see if anything came of a meeting between Trump and congressional leaders regarding the increasingly probably government shutdown. Initial reports from that meeting were not very promising at the close, but there was no market reaction.

Market Movement Recap

09:05 AM Moderately stronger overnight, but giving up some gains.  MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 1.4bps at 4.159

12:39 PM Best levels of the day.  MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 3.6bps at 4.137

03:04 PM Still near stronger levels at 3pm close.  MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 2.7bps at 4.146

Under normal circumstance, we look forward to the first Friday of any given month as the day that the jobs report takes a swing at sending the strongest signal for rates of any monthly economic report. This Friday will be no different IF we actually get the jobs report. If, on the other hand, a government shutdown is announced on Wednesday, the jobs report will be delayed and markets will be forced to wait at least several days before a delayed release. There’s a notion floating around that the market will simply shift its pent up jobs report reaction to the ADP data that comes out on Wednesday, but in our experience, ADP would still be traded like ADP.  In other words, it would have to come in much higher or lower in order to garner a big reaction. As the week begins, bonds are moderately stronger and traders are focused on an afternoon meeting between Trump and congressional leaders. Hopes are not high for averting a shutdown, but  in any event, the odds will become more clear as newswires circulate circulate.

Here in Colorado, banking, credit unions, and independent mortgage banks are a solid part of the economic fabric. LOs here and everywhere are scrambling to add value and educate their borrowers and referral partners ahead of a potential federal shut down tomorrow night. For those who want to know how Colorado, or any state, is doing this year origination-wise, the CFPB rides to the rescue with current nationwide and state-level stats. Fannie Mae’s Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group projects Single-family mortgage origination activity at $1.85 trillion in 2025 and $2.32 trillion in 2026, with the refinance share to rise from 26 percent in 2025 to 35 percent in 2026 on the lower mortgage rate outlook; New and existing home sales to total 4.72 million in 2025 and 5.16 million in 2026. Loan originators also care about trends in rentals, and on a more granular level, a story from the apartment building side of things from San Francisco reports that a huge owner of apartments is in default. If true, that’s not good. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by Spring EQ, one of the nation’s leading non-bank home equity lenders, giving partners more ways to serve customers. Known for speed, service, and innovation, Spring EQ makes tapping into home equity easier. Hear an interview with NEO Home Loans Ryan Grant on a growing shift in the mortgage industry as originators seek platforms that offer true operational control, pricing transparency, and long-term business support, delivering on promises the traditional broker model often fails to keep.)

Jerry Halbrook, who also held key roles at a number of mortgage lenders like Pennymac and Nexstar, has been named president and COO of Covered Insurance.

Nordholm took over as CEO in 2018 and the secondary market buyer of agricultural loans has named another executive who will serve as his successor.

The Fed should consider actively selling its mortgage-backed securities holdings, according to the Federal Reserve’s vice chair for supervision.

Investment purchases surged to their highest share in five years in the second quarter, even though total volume decreased from 12 months earlier.

The Trump administration’s exploration of a public offering tied to the government-sponsored enterprises spurred debate at a Bipartisan Policy Center event.

Last week was a wild one for mortgage rates with the lowest levels in nearly a year on Monday and an abrupt spike after Wednesday’s Fed announcement.  The present week has been completely different with each day seeing minimal change compared to the previous session.  Today was no exception. This was actually a logical outcome based on the morning’s economic data.  PCE inflation–the broadest inflation metric and the Fed’s favorite–came in right in line with forecasts.  If it had been noticeably higher or lower rates would likely have moved up or down accordingly. Top tier 30yr fixed rates have been in the high 6.3’s since last Friday. If you remove September 5th-17th from the equation, that’s still lower than anything else since last October, but certainly quite a bit higher than the first half of last week when rates were in the 6.1’s.  Next week is highly uncertain due to the potential government shutdown.  It’s not the shutdown itself that would matter for rates.  Rather, it’s the absence of several important economic reports including THE most important one of them all: Friday’s jobs report. 

Existing-home sales held roughly steady in August after tepid uptick in July. That NAR reported a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.0 million , down 0.2% from July but 1.8% higher than a year ago. Sales have now hovered near 75% of pre-pandemic norms for three years, reflecting the same constrained but stable environment that has defined the market since 2022. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said mortgage rates are beginning to ease and inventory is slowly improving, which should help future sales. He added that record-high housing wealth and a strong stock market may support move-up activity, even as the lower end of the market remains tight. Regional Breakdown (Sales and Prices, August 2025)

Region
Sales (annual rate)
MoM Change
Median Price
YoY Change

Northeast
480k
-4.0%
$534,200
+6.2%

Midwest
960k
+2.1%
$330,500
+4.5%

South
1.83m
-1.1%
$364,100
+0.4%

West
730k
+1.4%
$624,300
+0.6%

National Market Stats