Markets Rocked by New Tariff Drama

Markets Rocked by New Tariff Drama

Bonds were already having a decent day this morning with overnight market movers bringing yields in line with the lower end of the recent range. Mid-day drama caused massive selling in stocks which spilled over and made for an extension of the already-decent bond rally. The culprit? An unexpected tariff threat from Trump in response to… well… something (seriously, we’re not sure). Then, just minutes before the end of trading for the 3 day weekend, an official announcement (again, with cryptic references to untoward actions by China). Bonds managed to rally a bit more as stocks sank more, but there’s no telling how this will carry over on Tuesday. Tariffs haven’t been reliably beneficial for bonds, but they were beneficial today. 

Market Movement Recap

09:45 AM Overnight gains mostly holding.  MBS up 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr down 4bps at 4.10

11:26 AM Another wave of buying after tariff headlines.  10yr down 8bps at 4.06 and MBS up 10 ticks (.31).

02:17 PM best levels of the day. MBS up just over 3/8ths and 10yr down 9.2bps at 4.048

05:13 PM Even stronger at the close with 10yr down 11bps at 4.033 after new tariffs officially announced.  

Uneventful Day; MBS Underperform

Uneventful Day; MBS Underperform

It’s not uncommon to see MBS outperform their Treasury benchmarks in the run up to a round of weekly Treasury auctions only to underperform when the auction cycle wraps up. That underperformance (or rather, Treasury outperformance) was on full display today with MBS losing about a quarter point while 5yr notes lost about half as much. While bonds are slightly closer to the weaker end of the recent range, they’re still very much inside it.

Market Movement Recap

09:25 AM Moderately weaker so far with 5.0 coupons down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr yields up 2.6bps at 4.143

11:45 AM flat since last update.  MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 1.9bps at 4.136

01:04 PM Slightly weaker bond auction = slightly weaker response.  MBS down 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr up 2.9bps at 4.146