Builder confidence fell for the second straight month in February according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). Affordability pressures and elevated construction costs continued to hamper already gloomy sentiment. While the move was modest in outright terms (just one point lower than before), it reinforces the broader malaise seen over the past several years.  The underlying components were mixed but leaned negative. The index measuring current sales conditions held steady at 41 , while the gauge tracking prospective buyer traffic declined two points to 22 , remaining firmly in “low to very low” territory. Most notably, future sales expectations dropped three points to 46 , extending their move below the breakeven level of 50. “Builders reduced their expectations for future sales as buyers report affordability challenges, which is contributing to declining consumer confidence for the overall economy,” said NAHB Chairman Buddy Hughes. He added that while most builders continue to offer buyer incentives — including price reductions — many prospective buyers remain on the sidelines. At the same time, remodeling activity has remained comparatively resilient due to limited household mobility. NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz noted that affordability remains a central obstacle early in 2026, arguing that meaningful improvement will require policies aimed at bending the construction cost curve and expanding attainable housing supply. On a more constructive note, he pointed to easing inflation as a potential pathway to lower interest rates for both mortgages and builder financing.

Mortgage rates at the average lender moved up by 0.01% today–the smallest increment measured by the MND daily rate index. This means that most borrowers won’t see a meaningful different in today’s rates vs yesterday’s. That’s welcome news considering yesterday’s rates were tied for the second best day in more than 3 years. In the bigger picture, the absence of improvement over the past 2 days may suggest that recent bull run in rates is pausing for reflection, or at least until and unless certain economic reports justify renewed momentum. On that note, this week’s nearest examples of such reports will almost all be released on Friday morning, but they’re notably less potent than the data seen over the past 2 weeks.

Toll Brothers Inc. fell short of analysts’ estimates for quarterly orders, signaling that fewer people are signing contracts to build homes as high prices and economic uncertainty hold some buyers back.

The agencies’ representatives weighed in on the insurance fund’s capital ratio and evolving policies at the Mortgage Bankers Association’s servicing conference.

Some observers say changes to MSR risk-weighting would have limited near-term impact and are unlikely to prompt banks to rush back.

In a speech Tuesday, Federal Reserve Gov. Michael Barr said it was possible that artificial intelligence will boost productivity in an undisruptive way. But he said policymakers should also be wary of a financial crash if those gains are not realized or a rapid adoption that could lead to labor displacement.

The two organizations announced the Certified Home Equity Advisor credential, which will help financial professionals integrate home equity in retirement plans.

Calm Start Even if Modestly Weaker

The day before and/or after a 3-day weekend is more volatile than the average weekend-adjacent trading day. Last Friday fit that bill but today could have been mistaken for a summertime Monday (despite being a wintertime Tuesday). There were no significant reports and the available Fed comments weren’t actionable.  After nearly touching 4.0% in the overnight session, 10yr yields climbed slowly to 4.06 by 10am and then held mostly sideways through the close.  Considering the scope of last week’s rally, a “mostly sideways” day is a victory. On a cautionary note, the absence of follow-through and the overnight bounce underscore resistance potential near present levels.

Econ Data / Events

NY Fed Manufacturing

7.1 vs 7.7 prev

Market Movement Recap

08:43 AM Modestly stronger overnight. MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 1.4bps at 4.036

11:20 AM weaker in the early trading. MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 0.7bps at 4.055

01:33 PM Weakest levels. MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 1bp at 4.058

04:26 PM heading out fairly flat. MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 1.1bps at 4.059

It was an uneventful day for mortgage rates with the average lender holding right in line with last Friday’s levels. In this case, that’s a good thing. On the day before and/or after a 3-day weekend, rates tend to be more volatile than normal. That was certainly the case last Friday as the MND rate index dropped at its fastest pace since early January.  By holding steady, rates remain right in line with the lowest levels in more than 3 years.

On Mortgage Law Today at noon PT Brian Levy, Loretta Salzano, and Peter Idziak sit down with Laura LaRia and Sandy Shatz for a deep dive into the legal and regulatory pressures shaping mortgage servicing. The discussion covers litigation trends, servicing agreements, regulatory developments, and how AI is beginning to influence risk and compliance strategy. And on tomorrow’s Mortgage Matters (at 1PM ET) Faith Schwartz, who has an incredible pedigree, draws upon her decades of housing finance and policy experience to discuss crisis leadership lessons, regulatory evolution, and what today’s lenders should be watching as the market recalibrates. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Optimal Blue. The only end-to-end capital markets platform built to power performance, precision, and profitability. Modern. Proven. Optimal Blue. Hear an interview with TRUE’s Steve Butler on why lenders start automation too late by focusing on late-stage checks instead of intake, even though most costs are created early, and how to move certainty upstream.) Products, Services, and Software for Brokers and Lenders If your borrowers are equity-rich but cash-constrained or stuck behind a home sale contingency and running into DTI limits, join Flyhomes live webinar on February 25 to see how Flyhomes Buy Before You Sell can help them purchase before selling, with little to no cash out of pocket. By unlocking equity from their current and future home, borrowers can access up to 105 percent LTV of the new purchase price. Save your spot for the webinar now or book a call to review a borrower scenario today. Flyhomes has helped 5,000+ buyers over the past 10 years, and LOs using this program close an average of 1.2 more loans per month.