Higher capital requirements tend to drive certain lending activities away from banking and toward so-called shadow banks. How regulators shore up banks without driving their customers away is the source of a spirited philosophical debate in Washington.

The qui tam suit filed in 2018 alleged errors in government loan submissions all the way back to 2008, the year it was founded.

Those living in San Francisco and New York want to switch cities in higher proportions than ever before, the brokerage and search platform found.

Some pandemic-related gains have been ceded to depositories, national numbers from last year’s Home Mortgage Disclosure Act reporting confirm.

PeoplesBank in Massachusetts and others have developed digital brands that cater to younger customers’ demands for smoother technology and mobile experiences.

Yellen said that she sees diminishing risk for the U.S. to fall into recession, and suggested that a slowdown in consumer spending may be the price to pay for finishing the campaign to contain inflation.

We’re halfway through 2023 already. Time flies. It doesn’t seem that long ago when I was a kid and I had to learn how to make my own bowl of cereal with milk. Now there are instructions. Talk about the dumbing down of the population. I don’t know if they still make the small boxes with serrated grooves you could cut or tear through and then just add milk. Why dirty a bowl when you don’t have to? Spending money on useful things is one thing, although I’ve been known to spend money on some odd things, like copper fire extinguishers. But I guarantee that I will never spend my money on a $60,000 microscopic ‘Louis Vuitton’ bag. People are still spending out there. Why haven’t we seen a recession yet? One of the biggest reasons is the labor market, which has remained remarkably resilient. Companies had a difficult time finding workers during the pandemic and are reluctant to let them go. Second, companies, governments, and families everywhere took advantage of low rates to refinance their existing debt, and now they are paying rates that are close to the inflation rate, the equivalent of free money. More on recessions below! (Today’s podcast can be found here and is sponsored by Visio Lending. Visio is the nation’s premier lender for buy and hold investors with over 2.5 billion closed loans for single-family rental properties, including vacation rentals. Through its top-rated Broker Program, Visio brokers can earn up to 5 percent. Hear an interview with American Land Title Association’s Steve Gottheim on Fannie Mae’s title insurance pilot program and alleged attempted expansion beyond its core mission and statutory charter.)

Month/Quarter-End Came Early

As we witness the absolute lack of any meaningful volatility at the 3pm CME close today, we can safely say that month-end trades were pulled forward to this morning, and also to yesterday.  That means Thursday’s reaction to GDP/Claims may have been a bit overdone.  In the absence of month-end, it would likely have been a large, in-range correction but not one that tested the range so aggressively.  As for today, a friendly response to as-expected PCE inflation left bonds modestly stronger with little fanfare after the morning hours.

Econ Data / Events

Core PCE Price Index

0.3 vs 0.3 f’cast, 0.4 prev

Core PCE (y/y)

4.6 vs 4.7 f’cast, 4.7 prev

Consumer Sentiment

64.4 vs 63.9 f’cast, 59.2 prev

Market Movement Recap

08:59 AM Flat in Asia. Slightly weaker in Europe.  Rallying in domestic trading.  10yr down 1.5bps at 3.827.  MBS up an eighth.

01:25 PM Modest gains continue.  MBS up 6 ticks (.19).  10yr down 3bps at 3.811.

04:02 PM Another flat afternoon.  MBS up an eighth.  10yr down 2.3bps at 3.819.  

Whereas Thursday’s data was clearly bad for bonds/rates (ultimately creating a challenge to the 3.84 range ceiling), Friday’s key morning data is relatively inoffensive.  In fact, with Core PCE being in line with expectations, bonds are starting the day by breathing a relative sigh of relief.  If early trading trends hold up, this may be enough for yields to hold the prevailing range despite looking destined to depart yesterday.

Under a 2-year-old program, homebuyers receive grants of up to $5,000 for down payments and closing costs. JPMorgan Chase said the latest expansion — to some new 3,000 census tracts in 16 U.S. markets — may help an additional 1,000 customers obtain mortgages.