Big Recovery For Mortgage Rates After Jobs Report

In discussing mortgage rates near 23-year highs yesterday, we asked if there was any hope for relief and concluded that the only question was one of timing.  In turn, timing would depend on economic data an inflation.  Rates got a glimpse of friendly economic data today following the big jobs report from the Labor Department.  It was still very strong in a historical context, but not quite as strong as economists had predicted.  Up until then, rates were in a bit of a panic this week due to a confluence of other data and events.  Wednesday was saw the biggest jump after the ADP employment data and an announcement regarding the government’s anticipated borrowing needs (via Treasuries). U.S. Treasuries are at the core of the rate market.  When investors become less interested in buying them or when the government becomes more interested in selling them, rates rise.  The ADP data hit the demand side of the equation and the Treasury announcement hit the supply side.  We can see how things played out in the following chart of 10yr Treasury yields as well as the much-needed response to Friday’s more important jobs report. Despite Friday’s recovery, current rate levels are still uncomfortably close to long-term highs.  Mortgage rates only made it back to Monday’s levels (30yr fixed index still over 7%).  In order to get meaningfully into the 6’s, we’ll need more data that comes in cooler than the market expects.

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Tame Jobs Data Opens Door For Bonds to Stabilize

Rates were arguably oversold heading into today’s jobs report, but certainly could have continued higher if NFP was much higher than expected.  Thankfully, it wasn’t (187k vs 200k f’cast, and a downward revision to last month).  Still great numbers, but not enough to justify the defensive posture leading up to them.  Bonds spent the rest of the trading session correcting that posture.  Some of that correction could be short covering on a Friday.  Some could be a legitimate attempt to get into a more nimble position ahead of next week’s CPI data.  Either way, we’ll take it.  But we’ll also be cautious about assuming we’ll get too much more without additional supportive data.

Econ Data / Events

Nonfarm Payrolls

187k vs 200k f’ast, 185k prev

Wages

0.4 vs 0.3 f’cast, 0.4 prev

Unemployment Rate

3.5 vs 3.6 f’cast/prev

Workweek

34.3 vs 34.4 f’cast/prev

Market Movement Recap

09:09 AM initially slightly weaker after jobs data, but bouncing back into stronger territory now.  10yr down 3 bps to 4.149 and MBS up a quarter point.

01:00 PM Gains continue.  10yr down 10.9bps at 4.07.  MBS up more than half a point.

02:53 PM Little change from the previous update.  MBS up 18 ticks (.56) and 10yr down 11.7bps at 4.062.

05:10 PM MBS went out at the highs of the day, up 22 ticks (.69) and 10yr at the lows, down 13.7bps at 4.042.

Tame Jobs Data Opens Door For Bonds to Stabilize

With rates pushing up to super long term highs by yesterday afternoon, it may not have taken too much of a miss in today’s jobs data for bonds to rally.  That’s essentially been the thesis so far this morning.  NFP was a bit lower than expected with a small downward revision to last month.  Wages increased, but some trade desks have pointed out that there is a calendar component that pulled some of August’s wage gains forward to July. The only other offsetting component was the small downtick in the unemployment rate.  Bonds briefly sold of but have mostly been rallying so far this morning.

As far as the notion of recently higher rates providing fertile ground for a correction, the following chart helps put that idea in context:

In other words, the gains are nice, but also overdue and underwhelming in the bigger picture.