But in the Mountain and Pacific regions, values ended the most recent period lower than where they were one year prior.

The government-sponsored enterprises have consistently earmarked some distressed loans for community, nonprofit and minority investors. Certain Democrats want more.

The amount represents more than half of UWM Holdings Corp.’s outstanding shares.

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau said it would determine whether its victims’ relief fund could be used to make payments to affected consumers because companies that agreed to settle allegations of illegal telemarketing practices are insolvent.

A lawsuit accuses the group of trespassing, damaging office space and taking digital and physical property from their former employer after their departure.

The role of economic data in determining mortgage rate momentum is hard to overstate these days and today provided another solid example.  This morning, the average mortgage lender was offering rates that were modestly HIGHER compared to yesterday afternoon.  After the data hit, most lenders ended up offering mid-day improvements that brought the average easily below yesterday’s. The data in question was the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (aka “JOLTS”).  While it’s not quite on par with reports like The Employment Situation (the official name for the big jobs report most frequently referred to simply as “the jobs report”), it’s been an increasingly reliable source of inspiration for rates.  Today’s installment was the weakest since March 2021.  Mortgage rates tend to improve when data comes in weaker.  This is both a general truth and a specific consequence of the Fed’s current stance on rates.  The Fed wants to see more evidence that high rates are having a negative impact on the economy.  Yes, it does seem odd to be rooting for economic pain, but as far as the Fed’s concerned, a softer labor market is a good price to pay in exchange for lower inflation. 30yr fixed rates are still in the 7% range, but if the week’s remaining economic data were to be as downbeat as JOLTS, that could change.  Just be aware that surprises can occur in either direction when it comes to the data.  

Is The Top In?

No one had much to say or think about JOLTS (the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) over the past few decades, but it has risen to an increasingly prominent market moving role in the 2023.  Today was the latest example as a big miss resulted in a big win for the bond market.  Taken together with last Wednesday’s PMI-driven gains, 10yr yields are a full 25bps off last week’s highs.  That’s the kind of reversal that makes people start thinking about longer term tops.  So was that the top?  The answer depends on the extent to which you can accept the Fed’s “data dependent” thesis (and if so, it depends even more on how the upcoming data actually comes out). 

Econ Data / Events

Case Shiller Home Prices

m/m = 0.9 vs 0.6 f’cast, 1.5 prev
y/y = -1.2 vs -1.3 f’cast, -1.7 prev

FHFA Home Prices

m/m:  0.3 vs 0.7 prev
y/y:  3.1 vs 2.8 prev

JOLTS

8.827m vs 9.465m f’cast

Market Movement Recap

08:51 AM Stronger in Asia, but steady selling in Europe.  10yr up 2.8bps at 4.232.  MBS down just over an eighth, but some weakness is due to illiquidity. 

10:15 AM Big gains after JOLTS. 10yr down 5.3bps at 4.151. MBS up 7 ticks (.22).

“What did the happy real estate agent put on her sign? I have lots to be thankful for.” (Feel free to use that gem at your next presentation at Sotheby’s.) In response to yesterday’s opening paragraph comments about housing supply, from Maryland Ken Sonner sent an article about how New Zealand managed to shift its zoning to help alleviate the supply issues and lower rents. People like lists for some reason, and here is the “The 15 most in-demand ZIP codes for U.S. homebuyers, and #1 is in Ohio.” But heading back to inventory, affordable housing, and such, the topic is certainly percolating up to Capitol Hill. A bipartisan duo in the U.S. Senate introduced a bill that would address a shortage of affordable housing in rural communities by easing the process for non-profits to acquire properties with USDA rural housing loans. It would also decouple the related rental assistance so that the assistance doesn’t end when the mortgages mature. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by Black Knight. Black Knight is an award-winning software, data and analytics company that drives innovation in the mortgage and real-estate industries, and the capital and secondary markets. Listen to an interview with Servbank’s Anthony Forsberg on default and loss mitigation.) Lender and Broker Software and Services Don’t discount the value of prioritizing your customers. Many servicers are adding customer-focused technology to give homeowners self-service options and more. Just take it from AimLoan, an internet-direct mortgage lender that recently implemented MSP®, Black Knight’s loan servicing system, along with several other customer-focused solutions. After recently moving its servicing portfolio in-house, AimLoan needed proven technology to enhance the customer experience of today and prepare for growth of tomorrow. Ready to join AimLoan by enhancing the way you serve your own customers? Learn more about MSP today.

While bonds may have started the day drifting into slightly weaker territory, losses have quickly shifted to gains in the wake of this morning’s big ticket data.  JOLTS (the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) has been an increasingly important report.  It will be one of the data points considered by the Fed in determining whether the labor market has softened enough to begin removing some of the “restriction” from the current monetary policy stance.  In other words, if job openings drop enough (and if other data sings a similar tune), the Fed will be wondering more about the timing of the first rate cut than the potential for another rate hike.  Today’s number marked a sharp decline from last month and brings job openings to the lowest level since early 2021.

The bond market response was clear:

For what it’s worth, the chart of 2yr Treasury yields wouldn’t look much different apart from the values on the y-axis, but 2s have fallen more than twice as fast as 10s–an indication of the bond market reassessing the Fed’s rate outlook in the coming year.

The lender has shed nearly 80% of its expenses in the past year, in part through massive downsizing.