Rep. Patrick McHenry, chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, says he won’t seek reelection next year. He is known for collaboration with Democrats on stablecoin and other issues.

But the average cost for a mobile home is still more than $300,000 lower than a permanent construction.

The company will appeal the New York Stock Exchange’s determination that it hasn’t demonstrated compliance with NYSE rules within an 18-month period.

While Fitch and CoreLogic predict home prices will rise next year, Redfin is forecasting a 1% drop in the second and third quarters.

Right from the start and with only a few days that didn’t fit the narrative, November was a stellar month for mortgage rates, and December is picking up right where it left off.  The first few days of the new month have only seen rates move lower by 0.07%, but that’s a strong showing considering the drop of almost 3/4th of a percent from 10/31 through 11/30. Frequently, when rates enjoy winning streaks of that size and duration, we’ll see a more concerted effort in financial markets to circle the wagons and push back a bit.  One could make a case that we saw just that sort of push-back between Nov 3rd and 13th when the average rate rose 0.20%, but even that was a small correction relative to 0.50% drop seen over the first 3 days of the month. The absence of 2-way volatility has been especially notable since 11/15/23 without any spike bigger than 0.03.  What’s up with this uncanny, super-stable strength? [thirtyyearmortgagerates] In not so many words, the data and events have justified what we’ve seen up until this point.  11/14/23 was the last major inflation report and it was good for rates.  Since then, there haven’t been any big red flags in other reports.  Fed speakers have been open-minded about what comes next for rate policy.  Even when we look at more loosely-related threats to rates, such as energy prices (due to their inflation implications), we find oil at the lowest levels since July. Incidentally, mortgage rates are now effectively at the lowest levels since July, albeit late July.  There have been a few days where our 30yr fixed rate index was slightly lower, but not by enough that the average borrower would see a difference in a rate quote.

Logical Response to Data. Bonds Not Looking Nervous at 3 month lows

We knew that today’s JOLTS and ISM reports were likely to cause a reaction if they were much higher or lower than expected.  ISM ended up coming in right in line with forecasts, but job openings fell more significantly.  At 8.733m, it was not only the lowest reading in more than 2 years, but also a big miss versus a median forecast of 9.3m.  Bonds responded logically by extending the moderate AM rally with good volume.  10s ultimately moved down to 4.17% before hitting resistance and traded sideways near that floor for the rest of the day.  It is a sign of the times that there was no concerted effort to push yields back in the other direction despite hitting the lowest levels since August.

Econ Data / Events

ISM Non Manufacturing

52.7 vs 52.0 f’cast, 51.8 f’cast

Job Openings

8.733m vs 9.3m f’cast
last month revised from 9.553 to 9.350

Market Movement Recap

09:13 AM Modestly stronger overnight with additional gains at 8:20am CME open. 10yr down 4.4 bps at 4.215.  MBS up 3 ticks (.09).

10:30 AM Additional gains after data.  10yr down 5.8bps at 4.201.  MBS up an eighth.

02:03 PM Generally sideways near best level.  10yr down 8bps at 4.18.  MBS up 5 ticks (.16).

JOLTS, the job openings and labor turnover survey, used to be a very forgettable report.  On a scale of potential market movers, we’ve always assigned it the lowest possible rank.  But that changed over the past year and a half.  As the Fed and the market searched for signs that an ultra tight labor market might be loosening, job openings have emerged as a highly tradeable metric despite the fact that they run a full month behind nonfarm payrolls.  Today’s count came in at the lowest levels since mid-2021, when job openings were still in the process of surging to all-time highs.  Outright levels are still quite high, but definitely moving in the right direction as far as interest rates are concerned. 

My cat Myrtle doesn’t have a lot of rizz, and there are those that will argue that no cat has any charisma whatsoever. But plenty of marketing people do, or can create it, and even if you’re not in marketing, there are some clever marketing people out there. Creative minds as well, and if you’re looking for a Christmas present, here are the “best inventions of 2023” per Time Magazine. There is also cleverness and creativeness in the modular home manufacturing industry, probably far outpacing the ability of state and local government to issue permits. Meanwhile, lenders are facing a winter trying to figure out if they are in the “Survive until ‘25” camp or the “Grow more in ‘24” mindset? The credit industry is reeling as lenders grapple with soft versus hard pulls, renegotiating pricing, and bundled deals. And for some reason LO comp continues to be unsettled: dual comp, MLOs as real estate agents, transferring pipeline data when changing jobs, different fee structures within the same state, and so on. (Today’s podcast can be found here, and this week’s is sponsored by nCino, makers of the nCino Mortgage Suite for the modern mortgage lender. nCino Mortgage Suite’s three core products, nCino Mortgage, nCino Incentive Compensation, and nCino Mortgage Analytics, unite the people, systems, and stages of the mortgage process. Hear an interview with Mayer Brown LLP’s Holly Spencer Bunting on RESPA happenings and how the industry can get to better regulation.) Lender and Broker Products, and Services

Any capital injection from GIC would follow an effort by Apollo to raise capital that enables Atlas SP’s balance sheet to grow to more than $50 billion from about $40 billion in February.

Levels of home equity in seriously delinquent loans have fluctuated but today there’s still a sufficient amount to help many access foreclosure alternatives, Intercontinental Exchange said.