The online real estate and mortgage company alleges the defendants are violating the Sherman Antitrust Act by impeding a scheduling platform it owns.

The North Carolina-based company said it expects to close about 4% of its branch network, or roughly 80 offices, by the end of the first quarter. The closures come amid Truist’s $750 million cost-cutting initiative.

The end-of-year slowdown comes after a recent fall surge, but overall activity still finished 6% below late 2022 levels, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

The former chairman of Ocwen and once-related Altisource businesses is filling the role vacated last year by Jason Kopcak and then interim CEO Danya Sawyer.

As of this morning, it looked like the theme for mortgage rates in 2024 would be up, up, and away–at least as far as the first two business days were concerned.  The average 30yr fixed rate had risen 0.10% in 2 days after spending the previous 10 business days holding no more than 0.06% above the 7 month lows. In other words, rates had been uncommonly willing to remain uncommonly close to long-term lows and that suddenly looked like it was beginning to change. But things changed again after this morning’s economic data.  The hotly anticipated Job Openings data came in slightly below forecast.  The total was under 9 million for the 2nd month in a row–the first time that’s happened since job openings were still on the way up in 2021. Bonds (which determine rates) are looking for evidence of a cooler labor market, among other things.  This is one of the reports that’s in a position to provide such evidence.  After the release, bonds improved and that eventually allowed mortgage lenders to reprice with lower rates in the afternoon. The mid-day change doesn’t get the average lender back to the lowest recent levels, but it suggests that the market is not predisposed to moving higher.  From here, the next critical data will be the big jobs report on Friday morning.

Proof of Data Dependent Concept

The first two days of the new year were shaping up to paint an unpleasant picture for the bond market in which the strong rally in Nov/Dec faced the prospect of technical correction.  That risk remained through the first few hours this morning, but things began to change after the JOLTS data (not at first, but eventually!). As losses turned to gains in the afternoon we had fresh proof of concept for the prevailing “data dependent” narrative for rates.  JOLTS wasn’t even bad, per se, it was merely the first time we’ve seen consecutive months under 9m since job openings were still on the way up in 2021.  At the risk of reiterating the obvious, Friday’s jobs report will tell us even more about data dependency.  On a side note, Fed Minutes helped–primarily due to the nod to an eventual winding down of quantitative tightening (something that came through better in today’s minutes than in the press conference 3 weeks ago).

Econ Data / Events

Job Openings (JOLTS)

8.79m vs 8.85m f’cast, 8.852m prev

ISM Manufacturing

47.4 vs 47.1 f’cast, 46.7 prev

Market Movement Recap

09:42 AM More overnight weakness. 10yr up 5.2bps at 3.993.  MBS down a quarter point.

10:19 AM brief recovery after 10am data, but now back to weaker levels.  10s up 4.7bps at 3.988 and MBS down 3/8ths.

01:52 PM Nice mid-day rally.  10s down 2.3bps to 3.918.  MBS now unchanged on the day.

02:27 PM Gains maintained after Fed Minutes.  10yr down 3.2bps at 3.909.  MBS up 1 tick (0.03).

As long ago as December 14th, we’ve had our eye on today’s 10am economic data as the next reasonably important moment for the bond market.  There simply wasn’t anything on the calendar in the meantime that had as much market movement potential as this morning’s JOLTS (Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey). Volume and volatility confirm the focus was not misplaced, but the result was so close to the consensus that the trading reaction has been mixed.  In general, the market has been defensive in the new year and it was up to weaker data to push back against this morning’s higher yields–something that’s probably happening after a bit of back and forth initially.

In the bigger picture, the most bearish way to approach the selling pressure in the new year is to consider it a rejection of a break below 4%, but that’s a bit too presumptuous in an environment that is likely to remain data dependent.  As long as the data doesn’t object, Tuesday and Wednesday morning’s selling pressure could merely represent a return to the prevailing trend.  From here, it will be up to data to keep rates in a downtrend or suggest the downtrend is over for now.

“Affordable” means many things. There are residential lending industry jokes about making a loan on anything with axles or a license plate. (Like “don’t.”) Being “permanently affixed” is usually in the underwriting guidelines, which makes this story about someone having their driveway stolen very interesting. (In this clip a builder explains how the scam works.) There are plenty of trends in the builder world, one of which is “build for rent.” Instead of just having a house here or there, BFR homes are clustered together and form a community, much like an apartment community, and with many of the same amenities, essentially an apartment building as a defined community. This new “asset class” even has its own conference. The category is usually not a good thing for IMBs or small banks or credit unions. (Today’s podcast can be found here, and this week’s is sponsored by the STRATMOR Group, the data-driven mortgage advisory. At STRATMOR, insights and knowledge are applied to guide mortgage clients to make sound strategic decisions and take actions that improve their success. Hear an interview with STRATMOR Group’s Mike Seminari on data behind customer experience and how companies can take steps to improve referrals today.) Broker and Lender Programs and Software Happy New Year from TENA Companies, Inc.! Do you have a plan set for your Mortgage Origination Quality Control and Servicing Quality Control in 2024? The market continues to evolve, influenced by moving interest rates, changing regulations, and tech advances. There is no better time to strengthen your organization’s QC program. Ongoing regulatory developments from the CFPB, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, FHA and others underscore the need for a robust Quality Control framework that is able to react quickly to change. Don’t delay in formulating your Quality Control plan for 2024! Connect with TENA today to implement a strategy that addresses the nuances of today’s mortgage landscape. TENA’s highly-skilled and experienced auditors undergo continuous training to ensure they are well-versed in the latest industry and regulatory changes. TENA Companies, Inc. is here to help guide your firm’s QC program to success in 2024!

Mortgage activity took the usual hit over the last two weeks as the country celebrated a variety of religious and secular holidays. The Mortgage Brokers Association (MBA) was closed during Christmas Week, so this morning’s report encapsulates the December 18 to December 29 period. MBA said its Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, declined 9.4 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis compared to two weeks earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 38 percent.   The unadjusted Refinance Index fell 43 percent below its prior reported level but was 15 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The refinance share of mortgage activity accounted for 36.3 percent of total applications. The previously reported share was 39.4 percent. [refiappschart] The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index declined by 5 percent over the holiday period while the unadjusted Purchase Index fell 34 percent. The Index was down by 12 percent year-over-year. [purchaseappschart] Loan sizes, somewhat of a proxy for home prices, continued to trend lower. The average loan was $356,500 compared to $360,100 before the holidays. Purchase loans averaged $407,200, down from $416,000.  Markets continued to digest the impact of slowing inflation and potential rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, helping mortgage rates to stay at levels close to the lowest since mid-2023. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate edged higher last week and ended 2023 at 6.76 percent, over a percentage point lower than its recent peak of 7.9 percent in October 2023,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “ The recent decline in rates has given the housing market some cause for optimism going into 2024 , but purchase applications have not yet picked up in response, with the overall level of purchase activity 12 percent lower than a year ago. Refinance applications were still at very low levels, but were 15 percent higher than a year ago.”

Bank investors hope they can party like it’s 1995, when the U.S. economy stayed healthy even after aggressive Federal Reserve rate hikes. But a few analysts are a bit more cautious over whether banks’ loan books will hold up as well this time.