Its January forecast reverses the call first made in April 2022 that the U.S. economy would slip into an extended downturn.

The prepayment metric on the single-family issuer operational performance profile had been displaying outdated information.

The number of homeowners spending more than 30% of income on housing costs jumped 18% from pre-pandemic 2019, according to a new Harvard analysis.

The defendants are seeking more detailed information about what the bureau found as far as the extent of the alleged staff licensing violations.

With many already living in aging properties, the millennial generation could be stuck with the costs, a Leaf Home/Morning Consult survey claimed.

The bond market (which dictates interest rates) hasn’t had too many Mondays so far in January due to the holiday calendar.  Today’s example might have been confused for another holiday based on trading volume and volatility.  It was the lightest volume day of the year so far and the calmest in terms of volatility. Fortunately, the overnight market movement in Asia and Europe started things off on a solid note.  This allowed the average mortgage lender to drop rates slightly from Friday’s levels which, at the time, were the highest in more than a month.  Today’s average rates are the lowest since last Tuesday, but because the recent range has been narrow, they’re not too terribly different from any other day since then. Bigger changes become a bigger risk toward the end of the week, but especially by the middle of the following week where we’ll get the next Fed announcement and several important economic reports.  

While bonds are starting the domestic session in slightly stronger territory and holding sideways so far, the broader trend is still toward higher yields.  That’s been the case for about a month but the pace of weakness during that time has been far from threatening.  If anything, we’re dealing with a garden variety correction to the sharp rally seen in Nov/Dec, but one that has drawn some confidence of economic data that has been less than bond-friendly for the most part.  After all, “data dependent” is the phrase of the hour and there’s no reason to discount it yet.  With that in mind, this week is mostly about waiting for the only semblance of relevant data on tap, which will be Thursday and Friday morning (Claims, PCE, and to a smaller extent, GDP).

In the bigger picture, we would need to see a break above 4.31% before this correction would be more concerning, and a move back above 5.0% before abandoning all hope.  On the happier side of future unknowns, it would take a break of 3.33 to declare victory over the hyperinflation scare.  Point being, with big victory at 3.33 and big defeat at 5.00, the current 10yr yield of 4.10 is about as far away as it can be from committing to a decision.  Data can’t come quick enough.

Modest Gains. No Particular Reason

The week got off to a slow start as far as the bond market was concerned.  Volume was the lowest of the year so far, even if only by a small margin.  Volatility was also muted, at best.  The overnight session provided modest gains and about half of the gains stuck around through the close.  Even so, the improvement wasn’t remotely enough to change the prevailing landscape in which bonds are in a modest uptrend in search of a short-term ceiling from which to carve out a broader sideways set-up for the more important events in the next 3 weeks.

Econ Data / Events

Existing Home Sales

3.78m vs 3.82m f’cast, 3.82m prev

Consumer Sentiment

78.8 vs 70.0 f’cast, 69.7 prev

1yr inflation expectations

down 0.2%

5yr inflation expectations

down 0.1%

Market Movement Recap

09:48 AM Moderately stronger overnight. 10yr down 4bps at 4.09 and MBS up nearly a quarter point.

01:32 PM 10yr yields have drifted up from lows of 4.075 to 4.101 (still down 2.9bps on the day).  MBS still up 5 ticks (.16), but down an eighth from the highs.

03:23 PM More losses into 2pm, but off the weakest levels at the 3pm CME close.  10yr down 2.9bps at 4.103.  MBS up an eighth on the day.

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The industry leaders have made seven commercial appearances between them during the pricey, marquee advertising window.