The overnight session leading into this morning’s open was completely sideways–especially compared to yesterday’s example. The boatload of econ data line items did nothing to change that. Expectations weren’t high anyway. GDP (Q4) and monthly PCE (February) are both too stale to matter. Jobless Claims were a mixed bag with initial claims rising substantially and continued claims falling off a cliff (lowest since May 2024). But again, bonds have done nothing with the data and trading levels are almost perfectly flat to start another day of watching war headlines. 

VantageScore, created in 2006, is a joint venture by the three major credit bureaus (Equifax, Experian, and TransUnion). Will it change your lending process? Possibly. Do government regulations change your lending process? States have trigger lead requirement overlays, over and above what was enacted at the Federal level in March. (Talk to your attorney.) Some states are rumored to be looking at bundling credit report fees, referring to the practice of combining various charges associated with obtaining credit reports into a single, all-inclusive fee, which can “help eliminate hidden costs, improve compliance with regulations, and simplify the pricing structure for consumers and lenders alike.” Some companies, like Birchwood, discuss bundling and transparency. Interest rates are relatively transparent, and on today’s The Big Picture at 3PM ET Chris Bennett of Vice Capital Markets will discuss strategies given shifting rates, geopolitics, and framing hedging given the Fed’s thoughts. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by JazzX, the first true end-to-end AI platform built for mortgage. From application to underwriting, JazzX is a new operating model that helps you scale growth, boost productivity, and transform how your team performs. Hear an interview with OFA Group’s Thomas Gaffney on what real problems tokenization solves in mortgage finance today, where it will gain early traction in residential real estate, and how lenders can assess regulatory risk and platform credibility as the market evolves.)

Many borrowers will see no difference between yesterday and today’s mortgage rate quotes. The average lender moved just a hair lower. Once again, the rate market is responding to war-related headlines and their impact on oil prices. Rates don’t always care what oil prices are doing, but at present, there’s more correlation than normal due to the inflation implications from a protracted conflict. Inflation is the true concern for bonds/rates when it comes to oil. Today’s headlines involved various de-escalation anecdotes, mainly centering on Israel and Lebanon. Prior to those headlines, rates were set to match yesterday’s levels. Afterward, the average lender was 0.02% lower for a top tier 30yr fixed rate.

A new Basel III proposal offers mixed results for warehouse lending, with some risk-weight relief for banks but tougher terms that could crimp credit availability for nonbank mortgage lenders.

Better is focusing on its U.S. mortgage unit, which reported higher-than-expected preliminary loan volumes and priced a stock offering.

The California-based lender announced Wednesday the addition of One Goal Mortgage, a branch serving the Omaha, Nebraska, metro area and Southwest Iowa.

A Iran ceasefire sparked a $20 oil drop and Treasury rally, narrowing the rate-cut window from 18 to 15 months, but key technical resistance levels and a potentially ugly Friday CPI report could still reshape the outlook, according to the head of correspondent business development at AD Mortgage.

Roughly a third of homeowners with a mortgage rate less than 6% would not give up their rate for any reason, according to a survey of 1,000 mortgage holders.

It’s a fluid situation in financial markets on Wednesday. The 2-week ceasefire in the Iran war caused a big reaction last night, but the benefit to the bond market (bonds dictate rates) has been increasingly wiped out during domestic hours.  If we measure the reversal versus yesterday’s closing levels at 5pm ET, the reversal is almost complete. But bonds were already rallying in the afternoon due to expectations for the official ceasefire news. All that to say, we’re still in noticeably better shape than we were mid-day yesterday, but the overall improvement is smaller than most borrowers would expect. In fact, the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate is just barely at the low end of April’s range at 6.40% vs the previous low of 6.41% on April 2nd. Earlier today, it was as low as 6.38%, but mortgage lenders made mid-day changes in response to bond market deterioration. 

Bonds Lose Almost All The Overnight Gains

Bonds rallied sharply overnight–adding onto an already decent rally yesterday afternoon that took 10yr yields from 4.38% to 4.23% in less than 24 hours. Now at Wednesday’s close, we’re back to unchanged levels near 4.30%.  The move follows a similar correction seen in longer-term oil futures and, in a general sense, a news cycle that made the ceasefire seem increasingly tenuous as the day progressed. The absence of a bigger, sustained rally speaks to the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. withdrawal from the Middle East as well as lingering impacts on energy costs that may still flow through to inflation data.

Market Movement Recap

09:08 AM logically stronger overnight and holding gains steadily so far. MBS up almost 3/8ths and 10yr down 5.2bps at 4.244

10:58 AM MBS up 5 ticks (.16) but down a quarter point from highs. 10yr down 2.8bps at 4.268, but up more than 3bps from lows. 

02:09 PM No reaction to 10yr auction or Fed minutes. MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 2.2bps at 4.274

02:44 PM New lows. MBS just barely better than unchanged, and same story for 10yr yield at 4.293