In stark contrast to the entire month of March, April’s mortgage rate volatility has been downright boring. To put this in context, the average top tier 30yr fixed rate rose a substantial 0.65% by March 27th. In the first five business days of April, they’ve held inside a range of just 0.04%. Today did nothing to expand that range although it did leave rates microscopically higher versus yesterday. The Iran war continues to be the dominant source of inspiration for the financial markets, including the bond market that underlies interest rates. Given that tonight brings a deadline for a potentially major escalation in the war, there’s a risk of volatility heading into tomorrow.

Tonight brings 8pm ET deadline for Iran’s response to U.S. demands (opening shipping channels among other things). If there’s no response, Trump has threatened to attack critical infrastructure like bridges, power plants, etc.–a major escalation that would all but guarantee a much longer run of high oil prices (and all that goes with it). Reports of progress in peace talks (or lack thereof) are all over the map depending on who’s reporting and when. If there’s a genuine de-escalation (which could be announced hours before the deadline), you’ll know it based on the market response. If it happens after the close, futures/forex markets would still provide evidence of the market’s reaction. Between now and then, it’s just a waiting game with no clear direction.

The product preserves borrower’s first mortgage, and its potentially lower mortgage rate, without requiring the new monthly payments of a traditional HELOC, FOA says.

The latest government-sponsored enterprise changes include a more flexible sampling and a longer maximum term for some manufactured housing loans, respectively.

Lawsuits and probes are ramping up, and some courts have broadened the lending law’s statute of limitations, said Bradley Partner Jonathan Kolodziej.

Mortgage rates rising nearly 40 basis points from early-year lows have pushed some buyers out of the market, even as inventory and affordability remain better than a year ago, ICE Mortgage Technology found.

The White House’s proposed 2027 budget would slash funding to the Community Development Financial Institutions Fund, the latest in an ongoing campaign from the Trump administration to dismantle the politically popular program.

Holiday-Adjacent Waiting Game

Monday may not have been an official holiday for the U.S. bond market, but it way as well have been. Volume certainly acted the part, which is no surprise considering overseas holiday closures. Headlines and data had a limited impact, at best. In general the market is waiting to see what happens in Iran after tomorrow night’s deadline on Trump’s ultimatum to reopen shipping channels.

Econ Data / Events

ISM N-Mfg PMI (Mar)

54.0 vs 55 f’cast, 56.1 prev

ISM Services Employment (Mar)

45.2 vs — f’cast, 51.8 prev

ISM Services New Orders (Mar)

60.6 vs — f’cast, 58.6 prev

ISM Services Prices (Mar)

70.7 vs — f’cast, 63.0 prev

Market Movement Recap

09:03 AM A hair weaker overnight but rallying into positive territory in early trading. MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 1bp at 4.332

01:05 PM MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 0.7bps at 4.334

03:05 PM MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 1bp at 4.331

United Wholesale Mortgage lost ground to RKT in one category but held onto a healthy lead in another, an analysis of Home Mortgage Disclosure Act data shows.

Finance of America has not disclosed any incident, but a consumer filed an immediate lawsuit over a lone report of a ransomware gang’s recent hack.