Bonds End at Strongest Levels

Bonds End at Strongest Levels

Unlike yesterday, which saw an uneventful open give way to intraday weakness, today’s momentum was mostly friendly. Bonds avoided panicking in the morning hours. Mid-day war-related headlines made for some quick 2-way trading in the noon hour, but yields never went any higher than the AM highs. After sorting out that volatility, steady gain brought yields to the lowest levels of the day in the final hour of trading. For context, this is right on the highest edge of the short-term range seen in the week and a half leading up to the jobs report. 

Econ Data / Events

NFIB Business Optimism Index (May)

95.3 vs 96.0 f’cast, 95.9 prev

ADP Employment Change Weekly

29K vs — f’cast, 35.75K prev

Trade Gap (Apr)

-55.90B vs $-56.1B f’cast, $-60.3B prev

Market Movement Recap

08:23 AM A hair stronger overnight. MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 2bps at 4.543

01:38 PM MBS up 2 ticks and 10yr down 3.6bps at 4.528

04:15 PM MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 4.4bps at 4.52

Verification, Non-QM Corresp., AI/POS Products; Upcoming Webcasts; Non-Agency Product News

Remember when talk of a “re-IPO” of Freddie and Fannie dominated residential lending news? That has certainly quieted, Pulte’s attentions are diverted, and you can certainly buy stock in them now: share prices for both are down about 30 percent this year so maybe they’re a bargain. For those new to the biz, the FHFA oversees F&F, and the FHFA’s Director is Bill Pulte who is not without his critics and videos why. Meanwhile, in more constructive videos and interviews, housing affordability dominates the conversation, but Pennymac CEO David Spector argues the real solutions extend far beyond mortgage rates. In a candid interview with Robbie Chrisman, Spector shares his views on housing supply, homeowner lock-in, regulatory reform, and how technology could fundamentally reshape the mortgage experience. Hear from a couple veteran LOs about how the lowest rate isn’t always the best mortgage advice and how the best mortgage solution isn’t always the obvious one. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by JazzX, the first true end-to-end AI platform built for mortgage. From application to underwriting, JazzX is a new operating model that helps you scale growth, boost productivity, and transform how your team performs. Hear an interview with Littler’s Colton Long on how employers are increasingly responding to employee departures with legal action over alleged non-solicitation, confidentiality, and trade secret violations.) Lender and Broker Products, Software, and Services

Mortgage Rates Just a Bit Higher After Last Week’s Jump

The average top-tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate rose 0.08% last Friday after the jobs report came in much stronger than expected. Today added another 0.02% of upward movement. Today’s level of 6.68% is the 3rd highest of the past 9 months. Unlike Friday, there were no big-ticket economic reports driving volatility in rate markets. The only arguable cause and effect was seen earlier in the morning surrounding war-related headlines. These actually helped rates start the day lower than they otherwise would have. As the week continues, investors will remain tuned in to war-related developments as well as an important inflation report on Wednesday morning (the Consumer Price Index or “CPI”).