Mortgage application activity continued to move higher last week, though the pace slowed considerably as financial markets turned volatile and mortgage rates moved back up from their recent lows. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported an increase of 3.2% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending March 6. This week it was purchase demand doing the heavy lifting. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 7.8% from one week earlier and was 11% higher than the same week one year ago. MBA noted that purchase activity continues to track ahead of last year’s pace as improving inventory levels support more transactions. Refinance activity was largely flat by comparison. The Refinance Index edged just 0.5% higher from the previous week but still remained 81% higher than the same week one year ago. According to MBA Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni, markets were unsettled by geopolitical developments during the week, pushing longer-term interest rates higher. The average 30-year conforming mortgage rate rose back above 6% after briefly dipping below that threshold in recent weeks. The composition of activity shifted slightly away from refinances. The refinance share of total applications decreased to 57.8% from 59.8% the prior week, while ARM share increased to 8.9% . FHA share rose to 17.1% , VA share declined to 16.1% , and USDA share remained unchanged at 0.4% .

March hasn’t been a great month for mortgage rates and the past 3 days have been particularly bad. During that time, our daily rate index went from 6.09% on Tuesday to 6.41% today–the highest since September 4th, 2025.  While that’s certainly not the fastest jump we’ve seen, it’s the worst 3-day stretch since early April, 2025. Mortgage rates are driven primarily by movement in the bond market. Like several other asset classes, bonds have not been happy about the Iran war. This is counterintuitive for those who expect bonds to serve as a safe haven in times of uncertainty, but when war has a direct impact on inflation expectations, it’s more than enough to offset any of the safe haven benefit that might otherwise be seen. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]

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The real estate firm resolved two other NTRAP lawsuits in late 2025 and may find itself in front of another following a recent Nevada investigation.

A group representing this part of the industry and a community lenders’ association both called for more time to implement the legislative mandate.

The lender will offer a comprehensive suite of residential lending programs and commercial lending solutions, such as builder construction loans.

Industry comments are favorable, but with statements like “no bill is perfect” and “bold action is needed,” groups want changes before it goes to the president.

The Senate passed a bipartisan housing bill in an 89 to 10 vote, but how quickly and easily the bill can pass the House remains unclear.

War Protest: Bond Market Edition

There’s no quicker way to classify the movement we’ve seen over the past 2 weeks. The market is actively protesting the war in Iran–not because it’s a sentient being that cares about violence, but rather because the implications for inflation, economic uncertainty, and Treasury issuance on not great. There weren’t even any major developments today–just a few newswires that suggested no end in sight for the conflict or the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. 10yr yields are quickly back up to early Feb levels, but the selling is being led by the short end of the curve with 2yr yields at the highest levels in more than 6 months.

Econ Data / Events

Building Permits (Jan)

1.376M vs 1.41M f’cast, 1.455M prev

Continued Claims (Feb)/28

1,850K vs 1850K f’cast, 1868K prev

Housing starts number mm (Jan)

1.487M vs 1.35M f’cast, 1.404M prev

Jobless Claims (Mar)/07

213K vs 215K f’cast, 213K prev

Trade Gap (Jan)

-54.50B vs $-66.6B f’cast, $-70.3B prev

Market Movement Recap

08:30 AM Roughly unchanged overnight. No reaction to econ data. MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down half a bp at 4.223

11:33 AM Weakest levels. MBS down a quarter point. 10yr up 2.7bps at 4.254.

02:03 PM Back to weakest levels after a very modest attempt to recover. MBS down a quarter point again and 10yr up 2.6bps at 4.253

03:29 PM More selling around the 3pm close. MBS down 3/8ths and 10yr up 4.3bps at 4.27

Mortgage rates are driven by the bond market. Although bonds only experienced moderate, steady weakness throughout the day, mortgage rates lurched higher by an amount typically seen when the market is reacting to big, breaking news.  But there wasn’t any of that sort of news on tap today–just downbeat updates that reinforced a longer timeline for geopolitical disruptions. The bigger issue for mortgage rates is that they often experience heightened volatility when they pass through the 6.25% level. Due to the underlying structure of the mortgage market, 6.25% is sort of a dead zone. If you really want to see the nuts and bolts behind that phenomenon, here’s the primer. The practical result is that movement tends to be bigger when rates are rising or falling through 6.25% (or any level that ends with 0.25 or 0.75). As such, when rates began moving up from 6.125%, the slightly elevated bond market volatility made for a faster trip up to the 6.375% zone (today’s MND index was revised up to 6.35% in the afternoon after ending Monday at 6.14%). This is the highest level since December 8th, 2025, though it should be noted that prior to September 2025, rates had been much higher, on average, for roughly an entire year.