Bonds yields stayed lower than oil prices suggested yesterday afternoon. The same is true this morning, but oil prices have risen enough to lead bonds into weaker territory. Said differently, Iran war de-escalation sentiment is increasingly drying up, thus causing higher oil prices, higher bond yields, and lower stock prices. Additionally, the closer we get to the weekend without good news on negotiations, the more escalation risk will be priced-in by the market due to the Saturday deadline on Trump’s ultimatum to reopen shipping channels lest they be taken by force.

What’s new out there? Well, United Airlines is talking about having couches in the air. There’s always something new in compliance, and there are firms that specialize in it including Feewise, Truework, Asurity, RiskExec, TENA, ACES Quality Management, Firstline Compliance, and LicensingStore.com listed in the Marketplace. There’s always something new impacting mortgage rates. “Rob, I know that short term rates have gone up more than long term rates. Doesn’t an inverted yield curve, where short term rates are higher than long term rates, portend a recession?” Not always, especially when it is temporary. All kinds of people predicted a recession a few years ago that never materialized, reminding us that no one can predict the future. That said, financial companies like JPMorgan Chase predict no Fed cuts in 2026 and mortgage rates, which have gone back up to last summer’s levels, aren’t helping biz. Investors don’t think much of the prospects for builders, and their stocks have behaved accordingly. PulteGroup, for example, is at a one-year low, down 20 percent from a few months ago. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Quorum Federal Credit Union offering a broker outlet. Quorum empowers brokers to close more deals with flexible, high-LTV mortgage and HELOC solutions featuring up to 4 percent comp, low FICO options, and versatile programs for nearly every borrower scenario. Each day’s podcast features an interview with a mortgage luminary after 6AM PT, today’s with Peter Idziak with Polunsky Beitel Green on President Trump’s executive order’s impact on mortgage regulations.)

After a somewhat hopeful day on Wednesday, mortgage rates are back to their same old tricks on Thursday. The tricks in question involve following the broader market reaction to the Iran war which has caused significant and almost exclusive upward movement in interest rates for the entire month of March. Average 30yr fixed rates have been at or near the highest levels in 7-8 months over the past 4 days. Today easily took them to slightly higher levels as global financial markets lost ground. The move lines up symmetrically with lower stock prices and higher oil prices. Until there’s meaningful and lasting de-escalation of the Iran war, the safest bet is for more volatility for interest rates. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]

The Federal Home Loan Bank system, a Depression-era program designed to shore up mortgage lending that has morphed into a go-to — and controversial — source of cheap financing for banks and other financial institutions.

Lenders and condo market stakeholders are raising concerns that new GSE rules ending limited reviews and tightening reserve requirements could raise costs and limit access.

The title policy and settlement statement datasets introduce digital standards that will allow the information on forms to move as data instead of documents.

The national delinquency rate ticked up seven basis points to 3.72% last month, coupled with a 10-basis-point increase in prepayment speed, according to ICE.

Stakeholders rely on detailed, easy-to-read reports. From including cited data to using a structured format, learn how to simplify the lending reports process.

Noticeably Lighter Volatility. Why?

Wednesday offered a welcome break from the pervasive volatility seen since the start of the Iran war. It was among the narrowest trading ranges of any single day in March, especially during domestic trading hours. This is somewhat surprising considering the preponderance of contradictory newswires and headlines concerning the state of the Iran war (i.e. ceasefire vs more strikes and negotiations vs no communication). If Iran is refuting U.S. claims regarding de-escalation, why would bonds be calmly in stronger territory? Simply put: U.S. claims regarding de-escalation matter more than verified agreements with Iran. If the U.S. wants to wind down the war, that’s what will happen and that’s what the bond market likes.

Econ Data / Events

Import Prices

1.3 vs 0.5 f’cast, 0.6 prev

Market Movement Recap

08:58 AM Choppy and slightly stronger. MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 3.7bps at 4.327

11:32 AM Near best levels. MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 5bps at 4.315

01:26 PM Relatively weak 5yr auction but no major reaction. MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 3.6bps at 4.329

03:06 PM Holding sideways at similar levels. MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 4.2bps at 4.323

Products, Services, and Software for Brokers and Lenders A restaurant can seem like the picture of efficiency…until the kitchen falls behind. Guests are seated, orders are taken, and everything appears to move seamlessly. But when what happens up front is not fully connected to what is happening behind the scenes, delays build quickly, and the experience starts to suffer. Home equity lending is no different. Demand may be strong, but when workflows, systems and fulfillment processes are not aligned, speed slips and opportunities stall. On March 31 at 2 PM ET, join FirstClose for a webinar on how lenders using Encompass® by ICE Mortgage Technology® are solving that challenge. The session will explore how automation and digital workflows help accelerate decisioning and closing, reduce friction and improve pull-through. Attendees will also see how FirstClose’s XpressEquity and Intelligent Automation-powered Order Management System work together to streamline the home equity process. Register here. Are you confident you’re capturing every dollar your pipeline is actually worth? On March 26, tomorrow, join Optimal Blue for Hedging 201: The Components of Pipeline Valuation, where we break down the critical elements that help shape accurate, profit‑driving valuation. Following up on Hedging 101, this session goes deeper into how data quality influences your pull‑through models, why precise position and gain/loss reconciliation matters, and the best practices that strengthen loan sale execution and hybrid AOT strategies. You’ll also explore duration modeling and its impact on hedging precision, plus key accounting and cash‑flow considerations like SIFMA settlement dates and recognizing unrealized versus realized gains. Led by Optimal Blue’s hedge and loan trading experts, this webinar shows how our advisory, analytics, and modeling can help mitigate interest rate risk, reduce hedging costs, and support smarter, more confident decision‑making across your secondary workflow. Register today.