The root cause of the hack affecting over 5 million customers was an employee clicking on a link in a work-related search result, according to public case documents.

Mortgage rates were at the best levels in 2 weeks as of last Friday and today’s offerings are only modestly higher.  One counterpoint is that it didn’t take much to hit 2-week lows in a rate environment that had been utterly lacking in directionality or volatility during that time.  A counterpoint to that counterpoint is that bland performance is exactly what we expected over that time due to an absence of big ticket economic data. What is big ticket econ data and why does it matter?  This refers to the two key reports and a handful of their supporting actors that consistently cause rates to surge higher or lower.  The two reports above all others are CPI (the Consumer Price Index) and the big jobs report.  CPI caused a stir just before the sideways vibes set in and this Friday’s jobs report is just as capable. But here’s where those supporting actors come into play–a handful of other economic reports that don’t make quite as much noised as the big 2, but still enough to cause some movement.  None of those reports were out today, but there will be at least one on each of the next 3 mornings leading up to the big jobs report on Friday. If the bond market (bonds dictate rates) could know anything about how these reports will impact rates ahead of time, traders would have already made those trades.  Traders and mortgage borrowers alike are waiting to see what the reaction will be.  All we can know ahead of time is that the range of potential reactions is much wider in the coming days than it had been over the past 2 weeks. 

Sleepy Start to What May Be an Exciting Week

Every now and then the bond market makes a case for a 4 day work week.  Today is one of those days as absolutely nothing of consequence transpired in terms of trading levels.  Volume was also the lowest since the Monday before the last CPI report 3 weeks ago.  That’s a fitting milestone considering we’ve been waiting for this week of data ever since that CPI report sent rates quickly higher, but in case it’s not already clear, it’s the week as a WHOLE that matters.  Today was just a placeholder ahead of a steady ramp of scheduled events culminating in Friday’s jobs report. 

Market Movement Recap

09:40 AM Modestly weaker overnight with additional selling at the 8:20am CME open.  10yr up 3.9bps at 4.225.  MBS down 6 ticks (.19).

12:33 PM Very sideways all morning.  10yr up 3.3bps at 4.219.  MBS down 5 ticks (.16).

04:14 PM Almost perfectly sideways all day.  10yr at the exact same level (4.219) as last time.  MBS down 6 ticks (.19).

Last year I mentioned that today is the only day that is also a command. A few folks corrected me, saying that “March first” fits that bill as well. Live and learn. Here in Los Angeles at the L1 yearly event, folks are definitely here to learn but some of the talk is non-mortgage, like looking forward to Daylight Saving Time beginning this weekend (spring ahead!). Companies who learned to “save their pennies for a rainy day” are continuing to spend the money earned in 2020 and 2021 on smart technology, although a few are still using it for signing bonuses with inconsistent results. Lenders are certainly analyzing, purchasing, and using technology that they didn’t have time for during the pandemic 3-4 years ago. All of this while producing quality, compliant loans, something that never changes for good lenders. (Found here, this week’s podcast is sponsored by Richey May, a recognized leader in providing specialized advisory, audit, tax, technology and other services to the mortgage industry for almost four decades. Hear an interview with Rutledge Claims Management’s Aubrey Gilmore on customer experience in the hazard insurance space.) Lender and Broker Services, Products, and Software Tired of the slow, clunky loan process holding you back? Lender Toolkit can partner with you to unleash the ultimate automation experience and smoke your competition. Engage with Lender Toolkit to be successful on the journey to Encompass Web. Empower your origination with intuitive, guided, automated Task-Based Workflows. Lightning-fast pre-approvals, leaving manual work in the dust with AI Underwriter. Automate income verification, lower manufacturing costs, and reduce cycle times with Prism Income. Enable your production staff to easily validate and deliver accurate disclosures, saving you time and sanity with Disclosure Automation. Ready to crush it at EXP24? Don’t miss the chance to see our solutions in a live demo! Space is limited so book today here. P.S., Need a pre-EXP24 adrenaline rush? Join our Supercar Experience on March 18th! Go-karts, supercars, networking, and even a Ricky Bobby cameo await. More info here. Remember, as Ricky Bobby said, “If you ain’t first, you’re last!” Book your demo today and secure your spot in the winner’s circle.

We’ve been looking forward to the first week of March since the Feb 13th CPI report because this is the first time since then that we’ll see a top tier economic report capable of providing a meaningful cue for bond market momentum.  If there’s one report in mind to fill that role, it’s Friday’s jobs report.  But there are other worthy lieutenants on each of the preceding three days.  Monday, however, is a dud in terms of scheduled data–a placeholder day while we prepare for higher potential volatility.

While a Fannie Mae study confirms that the vast majority want to age in place, people 60 and older don’t want to use their residence as a piggy bank.

Prices in several cities came in more than 20% above what would be considered a sustainable level when compared to local economic factors, according to the rating agency’s report.

Until Congress addresses the federal deficit, the tendency will be for higher long-term interest rates regardless of what the Fed does with the short end of the yield curve, writes the Chairman of Whalen Global Advisors.

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said he’d like to see the central bank’s holdings of mortgage-backed securities go to zero.

Employees transitioned after Premier’s parent company, NTFN Inc. shuttered in December.