Uneventful Start to What May be an Uneventful Week

Uneventful Start to What May be an Uneventful Week

Without any big ticket events or major news headlines, it was no surprise to see bonds bounce around in a narrower sideways range.  Data-free Mondays are often superfluous when it comes to informing the big picture and today was no exception. It might have been even narrower if not for holiday closures in the overnight session (lower volume and lighter liquidity can increase volatility, all other things being equal).  MBS underperformed Treasuries in a small but obvious way (MBS lost ground while Treasuries improved), but we’re not reading much into that just yet.  This week’s only hope for inspiration is the Treasury auction cycle–at least in terms of scheduled events–and that means we’re probably waiting for May 15th CPI for the next big dose of volatility.

Market Movement Recap

09:53 AM Slightly stronger at the open, but backtracking in the past hour.  MBS up 1 tick (.03).  10yr down 1.1bps at 4.503.

11:09 AM Weakest levels of the morning with MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up only half a bp at 4.509.

02:56 PM MBS underperforming, still at weakest levels, down 2 ticks (.06).  10yr down 2.3bps at 4.489

Mortgage Rates Modestly Lower to Start The New Week

Mortgage rates did well last week, making it almost halfway back to the lower levels seen on April 9th.  Why focus on April 9th?  That was the last day before the most recent Consumer Price Index (CPI). Why focus on CPI?  That’s the monthly economic data that matters most to rate movement these days.  It’s not the only game in town, but it caused the biggest recent jump, by far. Last week’s combination of economic data and reassurance from the Fed was enough to get rates headed back in a friendly direction.  There was some follow-through today, but not for any news reasons.  In fact, “reasons” for rate movement are in far more limited supply this week.  In other words, last week was good and we caught a small break today with the modest improvement in rates, but things could be more choppy and sideways for the rest of the week.

Digital HELOC, Non-QM, Diligence, CRM, Construction Products; Primer on NEXA/Kortas/Grella Case

Think your job has its ups and downs… How’d you like to be a lipstick tester? (You should see the rest of him!) For me it is off to Birmingham tomorrow, where no lipstick testing is on the agenda, but I am sure that one of the topics at the MBA of Alabama Conference will be how best to lend in an era of constrained supply of houses to buy. But that may be changing: Florida is seeing its inventory of homes for sale skyrocket and price growth stagnate, largely due to homebuilders rushing to accommodate a flood of newcomers. Because we’ve done such a great job keeping building costs on land down, while at the same time not polluting our oceans, let’s build a floating city for 20,000. (Sarcasm font required.) Whether it is real estate, beer cans, or the value of companies, values are determined by supply and demand, so here’s something interesting: Berkshire Hathaway’s cash pile has hit a record as Warren Buffett cut its stake in Apple, a company that he described as one of Berkshire’s “four giants” (its insurance business, its stake in Apple, its BNSF railroad, and its energy operations). Follow the money?! (Found here, this week’s podcasts are sponsored by Matic, the digital insurance marketplace built for the mortgage industry. Matic integrates home insurance shopping into the lending and servicing experience, allowing customers to shop carriers and find a policy in minutes. Create a new revenue stream that boosts customer happiness today! Hear an interview with JVM Lending’s Jay Vorhees on running a retail operation in today’s lending environment and how he empowers his employees.)