The Sunshine State deal comes following a banner year for credit union-bank combinations, despite pushback from community banking advocates.

Moody’s Corp., a company that grades bonds and analyzes corporations’ financial performance, said it expects to earn less this year than it had previously forecast.

Broadly Sideways Despite Intraday Volatility

Shorter term bonds lost ground today while longer term bonds and MBS managed a modest victory. While this isn’t really a victory considering the mixed performance, it was better than a sharp stick in the eye.  Moreover, MBS were able to outperform–something that is not at all uncommon on the first few days of a Treasury auction week.  In the bigger picture, yields are hugging the upper boundary of a trend that would seem fairly boring and only slightly weaker over the past few months after breaking sharply below and above that trend after the tariff announcement drama. 

Econ Data / Events

Leading Indicators

-0.7 vs -0.5 f’cast, -0.3 prev

Market Movement Recap

09:50 AM Moderately stronger overnight after initial weakness. MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 4.378.

01:15 PM Fairly weak 2yr auction.  Some additional selling, but still stronger on the day.  MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 2.2bps at 4.387

03:30 PM Sideways near same levels.  MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 1.5bps at 4.395

The rate of new home sales picked up by 14% from the month prior, data provided by the Mortgage Bankers Association shows.

The partnership between alternative investment managers adds to signs investors see the private mortgage market as attractive, albeit not immune to risk.

The cost-cutting task force could impact the congressionally chartered nonprofit which provides grants and lending for both homeowners and renters.

The homebuilder agreed to acquire Alliant National in a transaction announced last October, with this deal closing after the Cherry Creek mortgage purchase.

The agency is offering buyouts and early retirement incentives for employees, with layoffs possible if targets aren’t met, as part of the Trump administration’s overall downsizing of the federal government.

Heading into last week, we expected to be waiting until after the holiday weekend to get a better sense of the prevailing tone in financial markets. If the week of April 7-11 represent tariff-driven panic, last week offered some hope that markets could stabilize in response to a more measured approach from the Trump administration. Those hopes were already looking tenuous last Thursday as Trump unleashed a barrage of criticism at Fed Chair Powell, ultimately suggesting could remove Powell if so desired. Global markets don’t love this narrative, and traded that fact overnight with weakness in the U.S. Dollar, stocks, and longer-term bonds. As Trump doubles down on his anti-Powell rhetoric this morning, stocks are swooning enough to help bonds recover back near unchanged levels.  The just-reported failure to reach a trade deal with Mexico (as well as a conspicuous absence of any major trade deals) is further contributing to the stock market swoon.

In the 1980s I fell off my bike and hurt my knee. I’m telling you this now because we didn’t have social media then. It doesn’t take social media to know that the S&P 500 is down 10 percent for the year, but fortunately “the stock market is not the economy.” As lenders and vendors everywhere focus on people, processes, and technology in trying to help their clients, on a broader scale, things have turned south. The benchmark S&P 500 index has now notched seven negative weeks out of nine, as tariff developments continue to sour sentiment. After several, sometimes confusing, adjustments and clarifications to tariff policy in recent weeks, things were quieter on that front last week. Lenders working with builders took note of one builder’s comments. “This year’s spring selling season started slower than expected, as potential homebuyers have been more cautious due to continued affordability constraints and declining consumer confidence,” Paul Romanowski, CEO of D.R. Horton, the largest homebuilder in the country, said on the recent earnings call. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week is sponsored by nCino, makers of the nCino Mortgage Suite for the modern mortgage lender. nCino Mortgage Suite’s core products unite the people, systems, and stages of the mortgage process. Hear an interview with Planet Home’s Mike Dubeck on managing a company through market cycles and driving business through technology investments.) Software, Products, and Services for Lenders and Brokers