Stocks have swung wildly on Pulte’s comments as he opines on everything from credit score pricing, to cryptocurrencies as mortgage assets, and even the job security of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

Most indicators cited by Morningstar DBRS are favorable to a good securitization market the rest of the year, but inflation is one of several challenges.

Dr. Mark Calabria takes on the additional role of chief statistician of the United States; retired Ally Bank executive Diane Morais has joined First Citizens Bancshares’ board of directors; MainStreet Bank has promoted Alex Vari to chief financial officer; and more in this week’s banking news roundup.

A federal judge in Texas dismissed the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s medical debt rule and prohibited states from passing their own laws prohibiting medical debt on credit reports.

Rising home prices and softening sales offer a mixed view of a market that some say is shifting to favor buyers.

The share of economists expecting a September rate reduction grew in the July Wolters Kluwer survey, but the October or later percentage also increased.

While refinances are behind the latest increases, the pace of purchase activity may be a stronger indicator of where the housing market sits.

Bonds Bracing For CPI Impact

Stocks sold off quickly in the overnight session in response to the announcement of 35% tariffs on Canada.  Bonds view such news as a double edged sword, but also drifted into weaker and weaker territory as the day progressed. Given that yields remained inside the week’s range, we’re more inclined to view this as an acceptable sideways drift ahead of big ticket data event: Tuesday’s CPI report. It goes without saying that some of the market will have to be surprised by the outcome which either will or will not show that tariffs have begun impacted the data in a significant way. The farther from forecast, the larger the surprise and the potential bond market reaction. In that light, Friday’s weakness could be viewed as a move to the sidelines ahead of the forthcoming revelations. 

Market Movement Recap

09:50 AM Steadily weaker overnight with MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 5.2bps at 4.398

11:55 AM Mostly sideways after  early weakness.  MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 6bps at 4.405

03:00 PM MBS are down 6-7 ticks (.19-.22) depending on the moment and 10yr yields are up 7.7bps at 4.424.

In terms of news that seems like it should be important, the biggest overnight development was the announcement of a 35% tariff on Canadian imports starting August 1st (up from the previously-slated 25%). Exemptions for USMCA goods and energy/fertilizer are probable, but TBD. And of course, it’s also possible the deal will change again before August 1st. Nonetheless, when it comes to a top tier trading partner, any durable increase in tariffs is a concern for the bond market from an inflation standpoint. Both stocks and bonds lost ground overnight with 10yr yields pushing up toward (but not over) this week’s highs. 

Don’t forget to snag your free Slurpee today at participating 7-Elevens! Speaking of edible things, I like my Frosted Flakes, Froot Loops, and Raisin Bran. M&A is not confined to lenders: Imagine my surprise when I learned that Michigan’s WK Kellogg Co. is set to be acquired by the Italian candymaker behind Ferrero Rocher in a nearly $3 billion deal. Sometimes it is hard to track who’s doing what, and how it impacts us, which is why STRATMOR’s latest write up is titled, “The Tax and Spending Bill: The Impact on Borrowers.” Tracking locks is important: the locks that Optimal Blue tracks increased 2 percent in June. Non-QM locks account for an increasing percentage of total volume, rising over 7 percent during the month. “The steady rise in this category reflects the industry’s growing focus on flexibility and meeting borrowers where they are.” According to Curinos’ new proprietary application index, refinances decreased 21 percent week over week and increased 17 percent in June; the purchase index decreased 19% week over week and decreased 2% for June as a whole. June 2025 funded mortgage volume increased 15% YoY. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by Truework, the only all-in-one, automated VOIEA platform that helps mortgage providers achieve up to 50 percent cost savings with an industry leading 75 percent completion rate. Today’s has an interview with National Community Reinvestment Coalition’s Josh Silver on ending redlining through a community-centered reform of the Community Reinvestment Act.)