The Federal Reserve’s struggle in bringing inflation down from its current level to its 2% target may come down to how the government measures shelter costs in the U.S., leading some experts to question whether the problem is in the economy or in how it is measured.

Some opposition to new allowances for attorney opinion letters may not be accounting for the fact these aren’t your grandfather’s AOLs, a law firm report claims.

The rate at which Gen Z is charting a new course by teaming up with people who aren’t related or romantic partners is soaring as homeownership hurdles rise.

The U.S. 30-year yield reached the highest level in a month on Monday amid predictions that a Trump presidency would lead to higher inflation.

The New York Stock Exchange has suspended trading in the FOA warrants, although the common stock is still active on the board.

Major homeownership expenses now account for 35% of the average American’s wages as housing market challenges continue, according to Attom.

Data Over Politics, For Now

Several days ago, we were debating whether the presidential debate or the month-end/new-month trading environment was the bigger market mover.  The political angle was more popular in the analytical community, but evidence is increasingly suggesting that popularity wasn’t necessarily warranted.  Today offered some compelling evidence in the form of absolutely no reaction to a widely circulated newswire that seemed to suggest Biden having second thoughts about remaining in the running.  Contrast that to the immediate and obvious reaction to the ISM Services data, which made for the highest Treasury trading volume since PPI and jobless claims data on June 13th.  Data will remain in focus when markets return from the holiday break on Friday morning thanks to non-farm payrolls.

Econ Data / Events

ADP Employment

150k vs 160k f’cast, 157k prev

Market Movement Recap

08:39 AM Flat overnight and stronger in early trading.  MBS up 1 tick (0.03).  10yr down 2.6bps at 4.406

01:40 PM Drifting sideways after strong reaction to weak ISM data.  MBS up about a quarter points and 10yr down 8bps at 4.352

Did you know that there were 2.5 million estimated people living in the newly independent nation of the United States in July 1776? Per the Census Bureau, that figure has now risen to around 335 million. 56 individuals of those 2.5 million people were signers of the Declaration of Independence, with John Hancock, a merchant by trade, being the first signer. Benjamin Franklin, who represented Pennsylvania, was the oldest signer at age 70; Edward Rutledge of South Carolina was the youngest signer at age 26. Speaking of numbers, if you like them, although the FHFA and the CFPB would like you to believe that they are part of the fabric of the United States, they aren’t. But the FHFA and the CFPB Release Updated Data from the National Survey of Mortgage Originations for Public Use. Hey, I only know what I read in the newspapers. But there is some interesting real-time information out there, and if you want to see who’s paying what in violations, here you go. (Today’s podcast is found here and this week’s is sponsored by Bundle, the attorney-prepared legal documents company that is dedicated to the real estate, mortgage, and title industries. Fuel your operations and execution of documents from deeds to subordinations to assignments, and everything you need for any order, in one bundled price; receive 20 percent off using the code “Chrisman” at checkout. Hear an interview with Atlas Real Estate’s Tony Julianelle on the recent single family rental market transformation and why individuals in the mortgage industry should care about property management.)

“Data dependent” is one of the most common phrases heard from the Federal Reserve these days when it comes to rate-setting policy.  And while the Fed doesn’t directly dictate mortgage rates, the bond market tends to trade the same data that the Fed cares about. Today’s key report, the ISM Services index, isn’t quite at the top of the Fed’s list, but it’s a longstanding market mover when it comes to bonds and, thus, rates. Today’s installment was much weaker than expected.  Weak data correlates with lower rates, all other things being equal. Bonds improved immediately after the release.  This allowed mortgage lenders to set lower rates today.  Some lenders had already published their initial rates for the day and several of them ended up issuing positive reprices before the end of the day. The bond market is closed tomorrow for the holiday, but will be back to digest an even more important economic report on Friday morning: the big jobs report.

Higher interest rates knocked mortgage application volume back last week. But, while purchase volume appears to lose ground year-over-year, refinancing activity is steadily improving compared to the same week in 2023. The Mortgage Bankers Association said its Market Composite Index, a measure of that application volume, decreased 2.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier and rose 8.0 percent on an unadjusted basis. The Refinance Index was down 2.0 percent compared to the week ended June 20 and was 29.0 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 35.7 percent of total applications from 35.1 percent the previous week.   [refiappschart] The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index fell 3.0 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index increased 7.0 percent compared with the previous week and was 12.0 percent lower than the same week one year ago. [purchaseappschart] “Mortgage rates moved higher last week, crossing the 7 percent mark, even as the latest inflation data has kept market expectations alive for a rate cut from the Fed later this year,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s SVP and Chief Economist. “Purchase applications decreased the final full week of June, even as both new and existing inventories have increased over the past few months. Refinance activity also remains subdued – although there was a slight increase in applications for conventional refinance loans.”