The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s proposal to eliminate medical debts from credit reports is under attack from debt collectors, which claim the rule will drive up litigation costs and drive doctors out of business.

While the pace of consumer inflation is showing signs of slowing, building material costs are running counter to the trend, according to the National Association of Home Builders.

The Federal Reserve chairman has two years left in his term, which he will serve regardless of who occupies the White House. Powell’s term on the Fed Board of Governors expires in 2028.

The wholesale unit is running a month-long special looking to boost the product by waiving the $795 origination fee.

We occasionally reference 5 day winning streaks for mortgage rates as the sort of uncommon occurrence that greatly increases the odds of at least a temporary pullback.  Longer streaks do happen, but odds of a pullback increase sharply after 8 days. With all that in mind, today marked the 8th straight day of improvement in mortgage rates. Does this mean we’re destined to see rates move higher tomorrow?  Not necessarily.  First off, we can never be sure we’re destined to see any particular outcome when it comes to the simple question of whether rates will move higher or lower over such a definite time frame. Perhaps more interesting is the fact that the underlying bond market (rates are a factor of bond prices) has already seen a mild pullback that began shortly after last Thursday’s inflation data.  It was just mild enough that the average mortgage lender was able to avoid increasing rates since then. Last but not least, rather than rely on precedent in the absence of context, we should consider that rates have been responsive to a small group of important economic reports.  While it’s not on the same level as last week’s inflation data, tomorrow’s Retail Sales data is one such report.  Simply put, there’s no magic rule that would preclude a 9 day winning streak if Retail Sales happened to fall far enough below forecasts.  Conversely, if the data is surprisingly strong, rates would likely rise and it would have nothing to do with the low odds of 9 day winning streaks.

The Sun Also Sets on Bond Rallies

Don’t worry, the headline is much more dire than the underlying message.  Long story short, there are always some counter-trend influences even when the bond market is trending decisively in one direction.  One might refer to the trend since May or to last week’s CPI reaction as decisive.  As such, one might increasingly expect some ground to be given.  We could certainly argue that we’ve seen resistance in bonds ever since the middle of Thursday morning, following the CPI rally.  In a figurative sense, this re-sets the board for the next move, and big ticket economic data helps determine the direction of that move.

Econ Data / Events

NY Fed Manufacturing

-6.6 vs -6 f’cast, -6 prev

Market Movement Recap

10:32 AM Modestly weaker overnight but holding ground so far.  MBS down just over an eighth and 10yr up 4.3bps at 4.227.

01:04 PM Losing some ground as Powell speaks.  MBS down 2 ticks from highs (0.06) and an eighth on the day.  10yr up 4.4bps at 4.227

02:55 PM Still under some pressure, MBS down 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr up 4.3bps at 4.227

03:35 PM Weakest levels of the day for MBS, down 7 ticks (.22).  10yr up 4.6bps at 4.229

While there’s no way objectively quantify the political ramifications of the failed assassination attempt on former President Trump over the weekend, history suggests–at the very least–that such occurrences are not damaging for a candidate’s political capital.  As one example, Reagan’s approval rating immediately jumped 8 points after being shot in 1981.  There does seem to have been an initial market reaction in the overnight session, but much like with the presidential debate reaction, it was very underwhelming in the bigger picture.  This doesn’t preclude a bigger reaction in November, but as in 2016, the most important political change would be one that results in a one-party sweep (House, Senate, Oval Office).

Yes, I know that this is a mortgage commentary, but some things are way above that. (Warning: tissues may be required; what’s happened legislatively since?) Dr. Ruth, who was sent to a Swiss orphanage by her parents were killed during the holocaust, died, as has fitness guru Richard Simmons, actresses Shelley Duvall, and Shannen Doherty. None of this has anything to do with mortgages, other than we as lenders are constantly involved in the fabric of our client’s lives. It seems like, at least over the past couple of years, time has flown by. It’s been four years since we were all watching called “The Tiger King.” The pandemic is ancient history in terms of mortgage rates. Four years since the last summer Olympics were scheduled. World Financial Group announced that Olympic and X Games gold-medalist snowboarder Shaun White will headline the company’s Convention of Champions this week. Don’t confuse Shaun with Sage Kotsenburg and his Totally Dope Refi Mortgage…a classic short clip. (Today’s podcast is found here and is sponsored by Calque. Calque provides a binding backup offer on a borrower’s departing residence, which empowers lenders to provide a bridge-like experience with easier qualification and less risk. Today’s episode features an interview with PHH Correspondent Lending’s Taylor Adams on the current state of correspondent lending. Lender and Broker Software, Services, and Products Home insurance pricing and availability continue to challenge homebuyers and existing homeowners in 2024. Matic, a digital insurance platform built for the mortgage industry, helps your borrowers find the best price and policy options by offering quick access to a network of 40+ A-rated insurance carriers directly within the loan closing or servicing experience. Seamlessly integrating into your existing processes, Matic saves time and reduces administrative burdens for processors, automating tasks like insurance document delivery. Our platform also enhances the borrower experience and opens up a new revenue stream for your business, with each policy generating additional income. Learn how mortgage enterprises can deliver automated, personalized insurance offers to your borrowers by booking a demo today.

Second quarter margins at the three big banks were lower versus three months’ prior, missing Keefe, Bruyette & Woods expectations of a flat comparison.

Property insurance and taxes account for over one-third of current loan performance risk, according to Auction.com’s recent survey of default servicing leaders.