The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau said some non-profit hospitals are failing to provide assistance to low-income consumers, while landlords may be illegally charging fees to pay rent through online portals.

First Electronic Bank is using technology from Spring Labs to analyze its fintech partners’ customer communications and identify problems.

Jobs Data Poised to Influence Size of The Upcoming Rate Cut

Thursday ended up being fairly uneventful for bonds, with the balance of data leaving us slightly better off.  ADP employment had the biggest positive impact and the selling pressure created by ISM Services was ultimately unable to argue a better case.  Friday’s jobs report will offer a final ruling of sorts.  It will decide whether the early September rate rally will continue and it will also inform the odds of a 25bp vs 50bp rate cut from the Fed in 2 weeks.  The range of potential bond market reactions are only limited by the data’s ability to exceed or fall short of forecasts.  Potential volatility is as high as it’s been since the beginning of August.

Econ Data / Events

ADP Employment 

99k vs 145k f’cast, 111k prev

Challenger Layoffs

75k vs 26k prev

Jobless Claims

227k vs 230k f’cast 232k prev

Continued Claims

1838k vs 1870k f’cast, 1860k prev

ISM Services PMI

51.5 vs 51.1 f’cast, 51.4 prev

ISM Prices

57.3 vs 56.0 f’cast, 57.0 prev

Market Movement Recap

08:30 AM Flat overnight and stronger after ADP.  10yr down 1bp at 3.746 and MBS up 2 ticks (.06).

10:07 AM Weaker after ISM data (but still barely green on the day).  MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 0.2bps at 3.752

10:57 AM Now decidedly weaker with MBS down 2 ticks (.06) on the day and 6 ticks (.19) from the highs.  10yr up 1.1bps at 3.767

03:34 PM back near stronger levels.  MBS up 3 ticks (.09).  10yr down 2.3bps at 3.732

“If you were born in September, it’s pretty safe to assume that your parents started their new year with a bang.” Are originators getting a “bang for their buck” when it comes to marketing to real estate agents? “Rob, have you heard that 20 percent of real estate agents account for 80 percent of transactions? And that most loan officers are calling on the 80 percent of real estate agents who hardly do any business?” Yes, I have. I’ve even heard worse: that 70 percent of agents don’t close any deals. I can’t verify that, but I can recommend three things. First, make sure that the time and energy you or your staff are spending is focused on courting agents who actually do transactions. Second, skim through the NAR website, as it is chockful of statistics that will help you. Third, the St. Louis Fed does a bang up job with stats, including the number of active listings… so let’s see… 900,000 listings and 1.6 million real estate agents… (Today’s podcast is found here and this week’s is sponsored by Stavvy. Moving real estate beyond paper documents. Stavvy is the digital platform that helps real estate professionals grow their business and ditch the paper process. Book a demo today! Hear an interview with Gallus Insight’s Augie Del Rio on his love for data and how his entrepreneurial spirit was cultivated from a young age in Mexico.) Lender and Broker Software, Services, and Loan Programs The best mortgage CRM is the one you’ll actually use… If your CRM isn’t making your life easier, making you more money or giving you the gift of time by automating tedious admin tasks then what’s the point? Aidium Mortgage CRM is built for the loan officer and embraced by the enterprise. Why? It’s got a complete Reporting Suite to measure personal and team performance over time. Does your CRM have 24/7 phone, chat, and email support? Aidium does. How about a Marketing Suite? Lead and Referral management? Pre-built email/SMS series. Start asking yourself if your CRM is actually working for you, or if it’s just another valueless expense. I want to see why Top-Performers trust Aidium.

Thursday morning had the highest concentration of economic reports so far this week with ADP, Challenger, Claims, and two flavors of Services PMI data.  The early employment metrics were weak.  ADP, specifically, pushed yields lower at 8:15am.  Jobless Claims were neither weak nor strong and bonds were free to drift sideways to slightly stronger after that.  The stronger ISM PMI data pushed bonds back in the other direction at 10am (no real reaction to S&P version). The net effect is almost perfectly unchanged trading levels heading into the PM hours.

Wouldn’t it be nice if you could know what was going to happen with mortgage rates before it actually happened?  Since the dawn of time in financial markets, there’s someone who’s willing to make a seemingly compelling prediction about the future for every person who’s willing to believe such things are better than 50/50 guesses.  When it comes to time frames as short as 24 hours, it’s a 100% coin flip. Reason being: Friday’s direction will be determined by the outcome of the Employment Situation (aka, the jobs report)–the single most important scheduled economic report on any given month.  This installment is particularly important because it’s in a unique position to influence the Federal Reserve’s decision on the size of the rate cut that will be announced in 2 weeks. Financial markets have long since adjusted to the expected outcome of the jobs report.  In other words, if jobs come in at or around 160k payrolls, that’s not actionable news even though it would constitute a big improvement over last month’s 114k.  It’s the scenarios where the payroll count is less than 100k or more than 200k where the market is more likely to go a bit wild. Under 100k would likely result in another meaningful move toward even lower rates than today’s (already the lowest since April 2023).  Over 200k would mean a quick return to the recent range.  For better or worse, it’s not out of the realm of possibility to see rates move by 0.1 to 0.2%.  Contrast that to the average change over the past 2 weeks of less than 0.05%. The report will be released at 8:30am ET which is well before mortgage lenders set their rates for the day.

The new offering from United Wholesale Mortgage replaces a July through Labor Day promotion that only covered certain FHA and VA refinance products.

In a little over a month, the company’s newly appointed chief strategy officer has built out a six-person strong recruiting team.

After hikes pinched profits across the industry, a move in the opposite direction could be the start of a more promising trend. But bankers caution that the immediate effects of a September rate cut figure to be small.

Steady purchase demand still led to a positive August according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.