Jobless claims data continues to defy a majority of other labor market metrics in showing a remarkable lack of any signs of softening.  In fact, the 4 week average is now at a 13 week low.  While this isn’t the most highly consequential econ data, it’s one of this week’s only actionable reports. As such, bonds are undergoing a small but negative reaction, adding to moderate overnight weakness.

The end of VA foreclosure moratorium is behind a rise in auctions, but bidder hesitancy suggests home prices could fall further.

Rocket Companies confirmed it had reduced its workforce following the completion of its Redfin merger. The company also plans to discontinue Rocket Card on Sept. 8.

Plaintiffs, who are all U.S. citizens of Indian origin, accuse the company of making the fraud accusations to cover up the unlawful termination.

The Department of Justice has filed a notice that it will appeal a D.C. District Court ruling that reinstated two democratic members of the National Credit Union Administration who had been fired by President Trump earlier this year.

The agreement with D2 Asset Management doubles the firm’s previous commitment to Unlock, as current economic trends provide momentum for the growing sector.

Broadly Calm Despite Modest Pull-Back

If anything about the present week required investigation and explanation, it was the justification for fairly decent gains right out of the gate. Today’s weakness, by comparison, is more logical. Why? Broader momentum is sideways and volatility should be lower this week vs last. A bit of of a pull-back on Wednesday means bonds are doing a good job of keeping things sideways.  For those determined to assign blame, we could perhaps turn to the US/Japan trade deal progress that apparently helped stocks and hurt bonds in the overnight session. At the very least, we know markets are somewhat tuned in to such developments based on mid-day newswires regarding a potential EU trade deal that briefly hit bonds and helped stocks. 

Market Movement Recap

08:47 AM steadily weaker overnight on trade deal announcements.  MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 2.4bps at 4.37

11:49 AM Sideways to slightly weaker.  MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 3.1bps at 4.344

12:18 PM Weakest levels after trade headlines, but stabilizing now.  MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 4.3bps at 4.389

04:31 PM Heading out without much change. MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 3.5bps at 4.381

The analytical theme this week has been to observe the market movement and then go scrambling for justification.  Such is the nature of a week without any actionable econ data. This morning’s example involves yesterday evening’s announcement of a trade deal with Japan which can generally be credited with boosting stocks and hurting bonds in the overnight session.  There’s been just a bit more selling as domestic trading ramps up for the day, but not enough to break above this week’s high yields.

Two months ago, existing home sales hit a five-month low. Last month’s report showed a minor rebound. This month’s update, released July 23, shows a return to weakness. Sales declined 2.7% in June to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.93 million. That leaves activity just above the recent low and still 25% below long-term norms. Year-over-year, sales were unchanged nationally. As has been and continues to be the case, zooming out on the same chart results in an entirely different impression of the home resale market. Sales levels have hovered near 75% of pre-pandemic norms for three years now. “The record high median home price highlights how American homeowners’ wealth continues to grow—a benefit of homeownership,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “High mortgage rates are causing home sales to remain stuck at cyclical lows.” Regional Breakdown (Sales and Prices, June 2025)

Region
Sales (annual rate)
MoM Change
Median Price
YoY Change

Northeast
460,000
-8.0%
$543,300
+4.2%

Midwest
950,000
-4.0%
$337,600
+3.4%

South
1.81 million
-2.2%
$374,500
+0.3%

West
710,000
+1.4%
$636,100
+1.0%

It’s been a pretty good run for mortgage rates since hitting their most recent highs last Tuesday. Each subsequent day saw a modest improvement. That winning streak finally ended today, but just barely. The average top tier 30yr fixed rate was only 0.01% higher compared to yesterday. For all practical purposes, that means that rates have been flat soo far this week after starting out just a bit lower than last week.  There haven’t been any major sources of motivation in terms of economic data.  Headlines surrounding trade deals have made for some barely-noticeable reactions in the underlying bond market, but not big enough to have a more visible impact on rates. Tomorrow brings the week’s most active slate of economic data even though the reports on tap are not remotely in the same league as several of next week’s key players. The implication is that volatility potential is slightly higher. But that’s not saying much considering the absence of any volatility so far this week.