UWM raised its Q1 and full-year 2026 revenue guidance ahead of Two Harbors’ March 16 shareholder vote, citing AI efficiency gains, amid stock volatility since the merger announcement.

Nonagency underwriting is expanding but the public sector is a different story due to recent performance issues, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Civil rights groups object to a $68 million settlement between the Department of Justice and Colony Ridge Development in Texas, calling the deal a sham for funneling $20 million into immigration enforcement and surveillance of victims.

Afternoon Weakness in Bonds Despite Lower Oil Prices. Will CPI Matter?

Days like today are a problem for a “set it and forget it” mentality when it comes to energy prices and the bond market. On many occasions since the beginning of last week, the correlation between oil prices and bond yields has been plain to see. Additionally, oil price volatility has been the only way to explain much of the movement in bonds. Now this afternoon, bond yields broke higher despite no clear cues from oil. We are left to lean on things like a weak 3yr Treasury auction and general supply pressures surrounding a large corporate bond issued by Amazon. Tomorrow brings CPI–usually a relevant market mover, but unlikely to carry as much weight given the current backdrop.

Econ Data / Events

ADP Weekly Employment

15.5k vs 12.75k prev

Market Movement Recap

08:56 AM Weaker overnight vs Monday’s late-day rally levels.  Stronger vs 3pm close. 10yr at 4.124. MBS down 19bps from 5pm, but up a few bps vs 3pm.

09:54 AM MBS down 5 ticks (.16) on the day and 10yr up 2.5bps at 4.12 

12:17 PM MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 1.6bps at 4.112

03:22 PM MBS down 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr up 4.6bps at 4.142

In the highest-priced housing markets, some buyers see adjustable-rate mortgages as the only loan they may initially qualify for, Cotality found.

TransUnion cuts VantageScore 4.0 to $0.99, aiming to boost lender choice and affordability as FHFA pushes mortgage score modernization and competition.

The company dropped the broker channel just months after Frank Martell became CEO; now that Anthony Hsieh is running things again, LoanDepot brought it back.

San Francisco-based Anthropic is challenging a decision by the department and other federal agencies like the Federal Housing Finance Agency to shift their AI work to other providers.

An estimated 565,000 first-lien refinances closed in the fourth quarter, up 50% from a year prior and the most since the second quarter of 2022, ICE found.

One of the conversation topics late last week in Deer Valley is the weather and climate, and more specifically that Salt Lake City had received virtually no snow this winter, which means that places like Atlanta and Charlotte have received more snow than a city at 4,300 feet elevation. Syracuse, New York has received nearly 5 feet of snow so far this year. Ever heard of Commonspace in Syracuse? As another affordable alternative, it’s a “cohousing” community in a restored 19th century office building made up of 25 mini apartments help affordability and that remind me a lot of my college dorm life, which was pretty cool and fun. The “Bull Moose Project” launched a new housing affordability hub examining why homeownership is increasingly out of reach for working families, and, per the site, outlining specific policy levers the Trump administration could use to restore competition and affordability in the housing market. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Floify, an industry-leading point of sale platform. The Dynamic Apps 2.0 AI-powered enhancement lets lenders tailor application flows by loan type, leading to higher completion rates, less operational back-and-forth and specialty lending without the one-size-fits-all compromise. Hear an interview with Rocket’s Austin Niemiec on the three-year strategic alliance with Compass aimed at expanding home listing inventory to create a significantly enhanced and affordable home buying and selling experience for American families.)