Markets Hit by Glut of Escalation Headlines

Markets Hit by Glut of Escalation Headlines

Monday’s trading session ended up being as simple as it was unpleasant. Bonds lost ground somewhat sharply as war-related headlines kept adding up to additional escalation. Highlights include overnight reports of Iran hitting a U.S. warship with missiles, multiple reports of UAE air defenses being activated, and damage/fire at a UAE oil export terminal. While bonds had a few moments of independence, they were broadly driven by rising oil prices associated with the aforementioned headlines.

Econ Data / Events

ISM Manufacturing Employment (Apr)

46.4 vs 49 f’cast, 48.7 prev

ISM Manufacturing PMI (Apr)

52.7 vs 53 f’cast, 52.7 prev

ISM Mfg Prices Paid (Apr)

84.6 vs 80 f’cast, 78.3 prev

Market Movement Recap

09:20 AM moderately weaker overnight. 10yr up 3.5bps at 4.41 and MBS down 7 ticks (.22).

11:31 AM Weakest levels after headlines regarding Iran attacking UAE. MBS down 3/8ths and 10yr up 6bps at 4.435

02:23 PM sideways just off weakest levels. MBS down half a point and 10yr up 7.1bps at 4.447

Some Volatility Surrounding Headlines, But Not Much Change

Some Volatility Surrounding Headlines, But Not Much Change

Bonds began the day roughly flat before losing ground modestly into the 9am hour as markets mis-read headlines regarding new peace proposals submitted by Iran. But just before 10am, similar headlines resurfaced including the claim that Iran’s new proposal made concessions regarding Iran’s nuclear aspirations. This accounted for a swift move into positive territory that was only partially reversed after Trump said he wasn’t satisfied with the latest proposal despite acknowledging progress in the peace talks. The net effect is a bond market that is roughly unchanged heading into the 3pm CME close. As has been the case, any major progress toward peace over the weekend (or any major escalation) could result in trading levels being drastically different on Monday morning.

Econ Data / Events

ISM Manufacturing Employment (Apr)

46.4 vs 49 f’cast, 48.7 prev

ISM Manufacturing PMI (Apr)

52.7 vs 53 f’cast, 52.7 prev

ISM Mfg Prices Paid (Apr)

84.6 vs 80 f’cast, 78.3 prev

Market Movement Recap

09:00 AM Modestly weaker overnight. MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 2bps at 4.39

10:05 AM Rallying after ISM data.  MBS back near unchanged levels and 10yr down half a bp at 4.364

10:54 AM Giving up roughly half the gains now. MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr just a hair over unchanged at 4.373

02:29 PM Flat in the PM hours so far. MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up less than 1bp at 4.379