Volatility Risk Ramps Up From Here

Volatility Risk Ramps Up From Here

Monday made it clear that traders are playing by the typical summertime, holiday week rules which often see the first day of the week result in very low volume and volatility. While participation should remain lighter than normal, that’s no guaranty of an ongoing absence of volatility. Even if there are fewer traders in the room, they can still move markets if econ data or Fed-speak (Warsh is on the calendar for Wednesday) bring any surprises. We’re also interested to see if there are visible shifts that transcend data/news based on the recently outsized role of quarter-end rebalancing trades.

Market Movement Recap

08:37 AM Flat overnight with mild selling at 8:20am. 10yr up 1.6bps at 4.383 and MBS down 3 ticks (.09).

12:30 PM 10yr up 1.4bps at 4.381 and MBS down 3 ticks (.09).

03:03 PM 10yr up half a bp at 4.373 and MBS down 1 tick (.03).

3.5-Day Week Starting Out Slow and Flat

At the risk of jinxing it, Monday is pretty much already in the back as an uneventful start to a holiday-shortened week (early close on Thursday and fully closed on Friday). Bonds were very flat overnight and are near unchanged levels in the first few hours. Unchanged is good in this case as it means we’re holding in a friendlier trading range under the 4.42% technical level in 10yr yields. Today is the only data-free day of the week and the next 3 are action-packed by comparison. While we’re expecting lower volume than normal due to the time of year and the holiday, this doesn’t necessarily mean lower volatility. In fact, light volume often exacerbates volatility if there are big market movers in play (like Thursday’s jobs report). We’re also open to a bit of extra volatility on the first two days of the week as quarter-end trading wraps up.

Verification, AI Processing, Digital Closing Tools; Ways to Think About AI; Conventional Conforming News

Lenders often ask about improving their execution, and STRATMOR’s current blog is “Pricing That Can Help Borrowers.” MLOs occasionally ask about an online tool that can help potential borrowers understand the process. Here’s something for your new clients, especially those who are first-time home buyers: a short quiz to get them started on what to think about in financing a home. For those of us in the industry who ask about some of the terms in our business, here’s something to keep in your back pocket: The MISMO Business Glossary delivers a curated set of standardized business definitions used across the mortgage lifecycle. By providing consistent terminology, the glossary helps industry participants communicate more clearly, improve operational efficiency, and reduce misunderstandings that can lead to risk and errors. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Experian. From lenders and landlords to employers and consumers, Experian helps connect the housing ecosystem with the data and insights needed to make faster, confident decisions. Lead a smarter housing journey with Experian. Today’s has an interview with Clear Capital’s Jason Legare on why appraisal modernization adoption remains uneven despite clear efficiency gains, where alternatives such as inspection-based waivers are gaining traction, and the operational and cultural barriers slowing broader acceptance.) Broker and Lender Software, Products, and Services

Mortgage Rates Inch to Another 6-Week Low

Mortgage rates ended last week at the lowest level since May 14th. Most of the recent drop happened last Wednesday, but each day since then has added a microscopic improvement. Today was no exception with the 30yr fixed rate index falling a mere 0.01%–the lowest increment we measure. The calendar of economic events was completely empty and consequential news headlines were just as scarce. This will change over the next 3 days on at least one front. Big-ticket econ data comes out on each of the next 3 mornings. Thursday’s jobs report is typically the most important scheduled monthly data, but each day carries at least some risk for volatility. Why only 3 more days this week? Because Friday is closed for the Independence Day observance. And when the bond market is closed, mortgage lenders don’t generate new rate sheets (and typically aren’t open to accept new locks).