A mortgage customer claims his data was compromised in a hack last year at a tax and accounting firm reportedly used by the wholesale giant.

The June jobs report is creating an overhang on economist forecasts for interest rates going forward, especially when combined with recent inflation data.

Today is a half day for financial markets, which is a typical feature of a federal holiday weekend. Because tomorrow is fully closed, the big jobs report (normally a Friday affair) was instead released this morning. It ended up helping rates move lower. The jobs report (officially “The Employment Situation”) measures new jobs created (or lost) each month in addition to the unemployment rate. The job count was much weaker than expected and, although the unemployment rate technically dropped, it did so for the wrong reasons (fewer people considered themselves part of the workforce). In fact, if we adjust for labor force participation, unemployment actually moved higher. The jobs report is the most important economic data as far as bonds are concerned. And because bonds dictate rates, there’s a clear connection to the mortgage world. Weaker jobs data = lower rates, all else equal. Today was no exception with MND’s 30yr fixed rate index erasing most of yesterday’s spike. 

Not Reading Too Much Into Late Day Reversal

Bonds rallied quickly in response to this morning’s jobs report and pressed to even stronger levels by mid-day. That’s the point in the day that most traders (the ones actually working) consider bonds to be “closed.” You’re free to do the same and count today as a win. But in the noon-2pm hour, a decent chunk of the AM gains were erased. We wouldn’t read too much into those and instead view them as a facet of pre-holiday-weekend illiquidity and/or position squaring. This doesn’t imply directionality in the future. It just means we have to wait for next week to get a clean read on market sentiment.

Econ Data / Events

Average earnings mm (Jun)

0.3% vs 0.3% f’cast, 0.3% prev

Continued Claims (Jun)/20

1,814K vs 1810K f’cast, 1821K prev

Jobless Claims (Jun)/27

215K vs 220K f’cast, 215K prev

Non Farm Payrolls (Jun)

57K vs 110K f’cast, 172K prev

Participation Rate (Jun)

61.5% vs — f’cast, 61.8% prev

Unemployment rate mm (Jun)

4.2% vs 4.3% f’cast, 4.3% prev

Market Movement Recap

08:25 AM Weaker overnight with 10yr up 2bps at 4.502 and MBS down an eighth.

08:31 AM Moving back into positive territory after jobs report. MB now unchanged and 10yr down 1bp at 4.47

12:16 PM MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 1.2bps at 4.469

01:48 PM weakest post-data levels with 10yr up 1bp at 4.49 and MBS now unchanged. 

Home price appreciation remained subdued in April, as the latest data from both FHFA and the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Indices continued to point to a housing market with little overall momentum. While annual price growth improved modestly from the prior month in both reports, elevated mortgage rates and ongoing affordability challenges continued to keep appreciation well below historical norms. FHFA reported that U.S. house prices declined 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted basis in April, marking the first monthly decline since last summer. March’s gain was also revised higher to 0.2% . Despite the monthly pullback, national home prices were still 2.0% higher than one year earlier, a slight improvement from March’s annual pace. Regional results remained highly uneven. Among the nine census divisions, monthly price changes ranged from a 1.0% increase in New England to a 0.8% decline in the Mountain division. On an annual basis, the East North Central division continued to lead with 4.4% appreciation, while the Pacific division posted the weakest annual gain at just 0.2% . The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index painted a similar picture. The national index rose 0.8% year over year in April, up slightly from March’s 0.7% increase. Annual gains also strengthened modestly in the major metro composites, with the 10-City Composite rising 1.8% and the 20-City Composite increasing 1.1% .

The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) reported on the performance of first-lien mortgages in the federal banking system during the first quarter of 2026. The OCC Mortgage Metrics Report, First Quarter 2026 showed that 97.7 percent of mortgages included in the report were current and performing at the end of the quarter, a slight increase from 97.6 percent in 2025. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Experian. From lenders and landlords to employers and consumers, Experian helps connect the housing ecosystem with the data and insights needed to make faster, confident decisions. Lead a smarter housing journey with Experian. Today’s has an interview with First Lien Capital’s Bill Bymel on how insurance challenges, AI adoption in servicing, and key leading indicators are shaping the next potential cycle of market distress.) Broker and Lender Software, Products, and Services With 30-year rates range-bound in the mid-6 percent range, credit unions selling loans on a best-efforts basis are forfeiting 35-40 basis points of conventional execution on every commitment. That’s margin that could be returned directly to members as more competitive rates or reinvested into balance sheet strength. In MCT’s new guide, A Credit Union’s Guide to Moving to Mandatory Loan Sale Delivery, Chad Stone, Director of Northwest Regional Sales at MCT, walks through the operational prerequisites for moving to mandatory, how credit unions’ structural advantages, including no warehouse line expense, portfolio optionality as a backstop, and higher member pull-through, make the risk profile more manageable than most leadership teams assume, and what board and governance approval requires. The guide also covers how lean secondary teams can run a hedged mandatory pipeline without expanding the capital markets function. Join MCT’s newsletter to stay informed with the latest market commentary and mortgage capital markets education.

Mortgage application activity was essentially unchanged last week, as a modest increase in purchase demand offset a slight decline in refinancing. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 0.04% increase in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending June 26. Purchase activity provided the week’s modest support. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 1% from the previous week and remained 3% higher than the same week one year ago, extending a trend of stronger year-over-year demand. Refinance activity eased slightly, with the Refinance Index declining 1% from the prior week while remaining 9% above year-ago levels. “Mortgage rates eased slightly last week as oil prices declined. As a result, mortgage applications increased modestly, with an uptick in purchase activity offsetting a smaller decline in refinances,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Purchase applications remain ahead of 2025’s pace and have exhibited year-over-year growth for almost three months, as prospective homebuyers are finding opportunities in markets with ample inventory and easing home-price growth.” The refinance share of mortgage activity edged down to 41.4% from 41.5%, while the ARM share declined to 7.6% , its lowest level since January. Government-backed application shares were mixed. FHA share decreased to 16.9% from 17.9%, while VA share increased to 12.9% from 12.3%. USDA share slipped to 0.4% from 0.5%.

The real estate and fintech company completed the purchase of 100% of Mortgage One Group, marking a major step in its push into AI financing.

This data release means another milestone for the use of updated credit score models than the current FICO Classic has been met by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

The Department of Housing and Urban Development got 67 responses to its request for information regarding the FHA program’s Minimum Property Requirements.