Executives surveyed by American Banker said companies vying to wrestle market share from banks are a major threat to operations in the coming year.

Bonds Recovering a Bit After “Framework of a Deal” on Greenland

Geopolitics have been front and center for financial markets over the past 2 days with both stocks and bonds taking clear cues from newswires pertaining to tariff brinksmanship, trade deal negotiations, foreign wealth fund participation, and ultimately, the late-day announcement of a “framework of a deal” regarding Greenland. Details are in short supply, but the most important development being a pause on the plan to implement new tariffs on February 1st. Markets are cautiously trading this as a win for now with stocks and bonds at the best levels of the week, but definitely not back in line with last week’s levels. 

Econ Data / Events

MBA Purchase Index (Jan)/16

194.1 vs 184.6 prev

MBA Refi Index (Jan)/16

1580.8 vs 1313.1 prev

Pending Home Sales

71.8 vs 79.2 prev

Market Movement Recap

09:54 AM choppy, sideways overnight session and little-changed so far. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 1bp at 4.286

01:25 PM reasonably well received 20yr bond auction.  10yr down 3 bps at 4.266 and MBS up an eighth.

02:57 PM Best levels of the day after Greenland-related tariff pause and word of a “deal framework.”  MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 4.6bps at 4.25

What’s said in the online video, which replicates the president’s voice with his permission, may be as important to lenders as how the message is delivered.

Representatives of both insurers and policyholders point out multiple flaws in the new laws and additional proposed bills.

The President is promising big announcements on housing affordability issues in Switzerland, but will it include ending the GSE conservatorships?

Hot securitization sectors such as non-qualified mortgages and home equity are set to expand further amid market shifts this year, recent forecasts suggest.

The real estate data firm said the merger will support efforts to scale and plans to ramp up development of enterprise technology products.

Range Breakout Intensifies. Chicken or Egg?

After months spent observing the same old range in the bond market, we’re finally in the throes of a confirmed breakout. Unfortunately, the breakout has seen 10yr yields surge almost 10bps above the range ceiling in just 2 days. Technical analysts are high fiving each other because this is a classic breakout event (higher volume, sharper movement in the direction of the breakout). Fundamental traders are saying “not so fast” because there’s nothing to say bonds couldn’t be in decent shape today without fiscal drama in Japan or spiraling geopolitical tension over Greenland. We got unequivocal confirmation of the latter today when a Danish pension fund said it was pulling out of US Treasuries. That marked the day’s biggest volume spike and sharpest selling.  

Econ Data / Events

ADP weekly jobs

8k vs 11.25k prev

Market Movement Recap

08:37 AM Sharply weaker overnight as bonds brace for fallout with Europe over Greenland push. 10yr up 6.1bps at 4.285.  MBS down nearly 3/8ths of a point.

10:43 AM Bouncing back a bit. MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr up 4.7bps at 4.27

01:47 PM MBS now down 10 ticks (.31) on the day and almost 6 ticks (.19) off intraday highs.  10yr up 6.2bps at 4.286.  No new drama.  Just gradual selling. 

On today’s Mortgage Law Today at 3PM ET, sponsored by Polunsky Beitel Green, LLP, Brian Levy sits down with Mitch Kider to unpack the shifting legal and regulatory landscape facing mortgage lenders, CFPB uncertainty, fair lending risk, GSE policy, enforcement trends, and how AI is beginning to reshape legal strategy heading into 2026. on tomorrow’s Mortgage Matters at 2PM ET (brought to you by Lenders One) is Ethan Winchell, President & Co-Founder of Truework, to discuss the seriousness and technology of verifications. Learning about capital markets is certainly intentional, and MCT’s Exchange 2026 (February 12-13) in San Diego is intentionally focused on market analysis, innovative technology announcements, and collaborative roundtables with industry peers. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by Truework, the one verification solution to replace in-house waterfalls. Verify any borrower with a VOIE solution that automates the entire process to quickly deliver the most accurate and complete reports with broad GSE coverage. Today’s has an interview with American Pride Bank’s Jessica Bluj on One-Time Close construction-to-permanent loans versus traditional multi-close structures.) Products, Services, and Software for Brokers and Lenders Digital tools are transforming how loan officers connect with borrowers, offering a seamless, mobile-first experience. With the Encompass LO Mobile App, a key component of ICE Customer Acquisition, flexibility is at your fingertips. Manage pipelines, update loan details and connect with borrowers anytime, anywhere. Explore how your team can work smarter, stay connected and build stronger borrower relationships with this powerful tool. Learn more here.

Mortgage rates jumped sharply higher on Tuesday in response to weakness driven by geopolitical events and overseas financial markets. After hitting lows of 5.99% for a few hours on January 9th and spending last week in the low 6’s, the average top tier 30yr fixed rate is back up to 6.21% today.  This matches the level seen the day before the announcement of the administration’s $200 bln mortgage bond buying plans. The last time rates were higher was December 23rd.  In light of that announcement, why aren’t mortgage rates doing better?  Simply put, the market has already reacted to that news to the extent allowed by its transparency. If it were something like the Fed’s bond buying initiatives in the past (Q.E. or “quantitative easing,” which involved a detailed buying schedule laid out well in advance), it would be easier for rates to drop much more quickly.   As it stands, the market will learn about this new buying plan as it plays out. In practice, this means that there will be certain days where mortgage rates do better than US Treasuries.  And then there will be regular days like today, when both are hurting in roughly equal measure.  As always, there’s no way to know if today is a sign of additional momentum toward higher rates. It likely depends on the outcome of present geopolitical issues and upcoming economic data.