A year after the transaction was announced, and 11 months’ post-cancellation, an AI-driven answer to a search engine query said the deal was completed.

After steering his former companies through turmoil, Martell will again attempt to turn fortunes around for a firm under regulatory and legal scrutiny.

Plaintiff Jason Morano argues that his suit forced Rocket and Redfin to release information that helped shareholders make an informed decision on the merger.

The National Fair Housing Alliance accuses the department of using inaccurate statistics to justify deep cuts to fair housing programs

A survey from Redfin reveals that Americans are unsure about how President Trump’s policies will affect home prices.

Any food science major will tell you that the difference between jelly and jam is that jam has chunks of fruit in it; jelly is strained. There is also a difference in costs in our biz. Here in Honolulu at the MBAH conference, costs are part of the discussion, and sure enough, there is a map of the mortgage closing costs by state. There is also a difference in denial rates, state by state, for a variety of reasons, so the National Association of Realtors® recently examined data from 2023 to give homebuyers some information as to where denial rates are the highest and lowest, and which groups they most impact. The best (Easiest? Most qualified borrowers?) states to buy in, according to the study, are Alaska, North Dakota, and Nebraska, which all had drastically lower denial rates. The toughest are a trio of Southern states: Mississippi (rejecting 19% of all 2023 mortgage applications), Louisiana (18%), and West Virginia (15%). (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by TRUE. TRUE cuts time to critical loan events from days to minutes by using background AI workers to instantly validate data and automate underwriting decisions. Today’s has an interview with TRUE’s Steve Butler on the next evolution of “background AI” in mortgage tech: from cutting decision times to minutes, enabling instant pre-approvals, exposing the hidden costs of partial AI solutions, and what’s ahead in reshaping the future of lending.) Products, Software, and Services for Brokers and Lenders

While there’s been no shortage of political and geopolitical headlines over the past 2 business days, there hasn’t been much by way of inspiration for the bond market. Bonds (and, thus, rates) have moved nonetheless.   Perhaps it was the lower rates achieved last Thursday that prompted a pullback, or perhaps traders are pricing in some caution ahead of this week’s data and Fed announcement. Either way, bonds lost ground on Friday and again today–both times with little by way of overt justification. Fortunately, the losses have been modest.  They leave the average rate very much in the middle of its range over the past 2 months. And it wouldn’t be unfair to say rates have generally been sideways since last November in the bigger picture. Tomorrow’s Retail Sales data is capable of causing volatility in either direction, depending on the outcome.  Then on Wednesday, we’ll hear from the Fed.  While they will not be cutting rates at this meeting, they will be updating their rate outlook–something that frequently gets the market’s attention.

Token Weakness Without a Cause

Sometimes bonds rally or sell-off for no apparent reason, or at least for no reason that can be easily proven.  That’s been the case on each of the past two sessions  with 30yr yields moving almost 10bps higher between the two of them.  Geopolitical motivations have been nonexistent despite some efforts to link oil price concerns to bond weakness (not a solid thesis right now). Fiscal concerns may be having some small effect behind the scenes, but they’re hard to substantiate based on the available headlines. The easiest approach would be to continue to classify the market as rangebound, in which case a pull-back makes sense given the lower yields seen last Thursday–especially with bigger ticket data/events over the next two days.

Econ Data / Events

NY Fed Manufacturing

-16.0 vs -5.5 f’cast, -9.20 prev

Market Movement Recap

09:48 AM Choppy and slightly weaker overnight, but sideways and holding ground since then.   MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 2.4 bps at 4.426

01:47 PM After a decent rally into 10:30am, MBS are down an eighth from highs and 3 ticks (.09) on the day.  10yr up 4.6bps at 4.446

03:50 PM Heading out near weakest levels with MBS down an eighth on the day and 10yr yields up 5.3bps at 4.454

After rallying fairly well last Wednesday and Thursday, bonds pulled back on Friday, but not enough to erase more than half of the week’s gains. The new week is starting out in uneventful fashion with trading levels reasonably close to Friday’s latest levels after a bit of overnight weakness. The day’s only econ data (NY Fed Manufacturing) isn’t a big market mover to begin with and has already passed without a trace. With that, the focus remains square on Wednesday’s Fed dot plot as a key informant for near-term bond market volatility.  Tuesday’s AM data also has some chance to cause a response–largely due to Retail Sales. Geopolitical headlines haven’t been a big issue for better or worse as far as bonds are concerned although that could change depending on the nature of any additional escalation.
The bigger picture trend arguably remains rangebound with Friday’s weakness acting as a rejection of another breakout attempt (of the 4.40% range floor).  But someone more inclined to bullish interpretations could also argue that a general downtrend (green lines in the chart below) is in place with this morning’s friendly bounce adding the latest piece of evidence.

The company also made several new executive appointments in 2025 as it aims to turn itself into a national one-stop shop with end-to-end home buying services.