2025 is effectively over when it comes to meaningful shifts in the bond market. The coming days will be so heavily-affected by light volume/liquidity that any apparently significant shifts would be taken with a grain of salt anyway. Even as we look back over the past 4 months, we see a persistence of the very narrow 4.00-4.20 range in 10yr yields. The past 3 weeks have been especially narrow.

 While the recent micro range in 10s is on the high side of the broader range, this has more to do with shifts in the yield curve. For instance, 2yr yields are hugging the lower end of their 4-month range.

MBS and mortgage rates are somewhere in between, which is why they’ve been outperforming 10yr yields relative to the highs/lows of their respective ranges.

The Massachusetts Democrat requested to see records related to second liens that banks were required to expunge per terms of the 2012 mortgage settlement.

The move formalizes acting leadership roles both have had in different segments of the government-backed mortgage market serving many first-time homebuyers.

More than 80% of mortgage brokers expect business to grow in 2026, mainly through the strengthening of referral networks and the expansion of non-QM offerings.

Existing-home sales in the US barely rose in November, as a recent moderation in price growth and mortgage rates motivated buyers at the margin.

Monthly excess spread will confer credit enhancement to the notes, KBRA said, and while it will be released it will not be available as credit enhancement in future payment periods.

It ended up being a fairly uneventful day for mortgage rates despite scattered speculation about the impact of foreign monetary policy decisions. The average lender nudged just a hair higher, resulting in the 2nd lowest reading of the week. Apart from yesterday, the last day with lower rates was more than 2 weeks ago on December 4th. The coming week will be heavily affected by the realities of the holiday trading environment. There’s no repeatable formula for this. We simply widen the range of potential rate movement that occurs for no apparent reason. Most of the time, rates simple drift aimlessly sideways, but on certain years, there are  inexplicable jumps/dips. We won’t have a solid sense of where the rate market wants to be until the important economic reports start coming out in January.

Bond Market in Holiday Mode

Holiday mode is impossible to clearly define when it comes to its impact on the bond market. We know it when we see it, and we saw it today. Bonds paid no attention to econ data no matter how much it may seem that the 10am Consumer Sentiment numbers had an impact. Movement was minimal and not visibly tied to any other motivation. And as we already discussed this morning, Japan’s rate hike was a non-event. Holiday trading randomness will get worse over the next 2 weeks before it improves in early January.

Econ Data / Events

Consumer Sentiment (Dec)

52.9 vs 53.4 f’cast, 51.0 prev

Existing home sales (Nov)

4.13M vs 4.2M f’cast, 4.1M prev

Sentiment: 1y Inflation (Dec)

4.2% vs 4.1% f’cast, 4.5% prev

Sentiment: 5y Inflation (Dec)

3.2% vs 3.2% f’cast, 3.4% prev

U Mich conditions (Dec)

50.4 vs 50.7 f’cast, 51.1 prev

Market Movement Recap

10:12 AM Sideways at modestly weaker levels. MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 2.1bps at 4.143

12:15 PM Decent recovery into 11am, but fading a bit now.  MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 01yr up 2.7bps at 4.148

Seasonally adjusted mortgage application activity declined 3.8% last week, according to MBA’s Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending December 12. Unadjusted applications fell 5% from the prior week, reflecting a typical seasonal slowdown as the year draws to a close. The Refinance Index slipped 4% from the previous week but remains 86% higher than the same week one year ago, underscoring continued refinance interest as rates remain rangebound. Purchase activity also softened, with the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index down 3% from the prior week. On an unadjusted basis, purchase applications declined 7% week-over-week but are still running 13% above last year’s pace. “Mortgage rates inched up last week following the FOMC meeting, as investors interpreted the comments to signal that we are near the end of this rate cutting cycle. As a result, mortgage applications declined slightly,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s SVP and Chief Economist. “Purchase application volume typically drops off quickly at the end of the year, and this shifts the mix of the business, with the refinance share reaching 59 percent last week, the highest level since September. However, refinance activity has remained mostly the same for the past month as rates continue to hold at around the same narrow range.” The refinance share of applications increased to 59.0% from 58.2% the previous week. ARM share rose to 7.2%. FHA share edged lower to 19.5%, while VA share increased to 16.6%. USDA share increased to 0.4%.

The December National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) edged up one point to 39. This is the 3rd straight month of improvement in the index–a development that could be confused for something encouraging.  But the reality is that builder confidence is merely drifting along just barely above the lowest levels in more than a decade. This has been the case for more than 3 years now. Peeling back the layers shows familiar constraints, even if the numbers shuffled slightly. The index measuring current sales conditions rose one point to 42, while the gauge tracking prospective buyer traffic held steady at 26—still firmly in “low to very low” territory. Future sales expectations improved one point to 52, extending a three-month stretch above breakeven. “Market conditions remain challenging with two-thirds of builders reporting they are offering incentives to move buyers off the fence,” said NAHB Chairman Buddy Hughes. “Meanwhile, builders are contending with rising material and labor prices, as tariffs are having serious repercussions on construction costs.” Pricing pressure continues to do much of the heavy lifting. NAHB reports that 40% of builders cut home prices in December, marking the second consecutive month at or above that level. The average price reduction eased to 5%, down from 6% in November, while the use of sales incentives climbed to 67%—the highest share in the post-Covid period. Regionally, the three-month moving averages show a broad-based but still uneven improvement. The Northeast slipped to 47, while the Midwest strengthened to 43. The South rose to 36 and the West improved to 34, though both regions remain more acutely exposed to affordability pressures.