The setback pared a weekly gain for US government bonds sparked by an April 8 ceasefire agreement, which caused oil prices to tumble from near multiyear highs.

Economists surveyed by Wolters Kluwer are scaling back rate cut expectations as Iran conflict-driven energy costs push inflation higher, complicating the Fed’s path forward.

A Colorado couple filed suit after realizing they might owe as much as $279,000 on a home equity investment contract used to obtain $88,000 in 2018.

The industry reported $275 million in losses from internet crimes last year, a 59% annual increase as losses nationwide surpassed $20 billion.

“Wildfire risk is not just an occasional catastrophe, but a recurring cost embedded in the state’s economy,” said the report issued this week by the California Earthquake Authority.

Bonds Drift Weaker Despite Lower Oil Prices

Although they still technically made positive progress versus the end of last week, bonds ended the day moderately weaker. Lower oil prices offered no support, but that’s a tricky correlation these days. Longer-term oil contracts continue lining up with bond yield movement more reliably. To be sure, we can at least consider the impact of this morning’s CPI data based on decent trading volume at the time and a reversal of the sideways to slightly stronger momentum in the preceding few hours, but it’s impossible to say that it continued weighing on bonds for the rest of the session.

Econ Data / Events

m/m CORE CPI (Mar)

0.2% vs 0.3% f’cast, 0.2% prev

m/m Headline CPI (Mar)

0.9% vs 0.9% f’cast, 0.3% prev

y/y CORE CPI (Mar)

2.6% vs 2.7% f’cast, 2.5% prev

y/y Headline CPI (Mar)

3.3% vs 3.3% f’cast, 2.4% prev

Market Movement Recap

10:58 AM Slightly weaker this AM but leveling off with MBS unchanged and 10yr up 3bps at 4.306

12:46 PM weakest levels. MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 4.2bps at 4.319

03:35 PM flat for the past few hours with MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 4bps at 4.316

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Mortgage applications dipped again last week, though the pace of decline slowed considerably. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 0.8% decrease on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending April 3. Refinance activity continued to weaken, with the Refinance Index falling 3% from the previous week and now sitting 4% below year-ago levels. The slowdown reflects a sharp drop in borrower incentive following the recent run-up in rates. Purchase activity showed modest resilience, with the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index rising 1% from the prior week. However, demand remains softer overall, with purchase applications down 7% compared to the same time last year—the first annual decline since early 2025. MBA’s Joel Kan said “higher mortgage rates and continued economic uncertainty weighed down on mortgage applications again last week,” adding that refinance demand has dropped to its lowest level since December 2025. He also pointed out that some segments of the market are holding up better, particularly FHA and ARM loans, which continue to benefit from relatively lower rates and improving housing inventory in certain markets. Application composition shifted slightly, with refinance share decreasing to 44.3% from 45.3% the prior week. ARM share increased to 8.6% . FHA share edged down to 19.3% , while VA share held steady at 16.1% and USDA share remained unchanged at 0.5% .

If we’re splitting hairs, today’s average mortgage rates are technically higher than yesterday’s, but the change is so small that it’s just as fair to say that rates are flat. This closes out a week with surprisingly low volatility compared to that seen in March. In part, this can be attributed to longer-term oil prices being less volatile after moving down from their highs in late March. It’s also a reflection of uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the Iran war. The war (specifically, the economic/inflation implications) continue to be primary source of motivation for rates even in the presence of economic data that would normally have an impact. Reason being: we haven’t yet received big-ticket econ reports that have had a chance to bake in too much of the war’s impact. Today’s CPI inflation data was one of the first, but it came in close enough to forecasts to avoid making a strong case for rate volatility. 

The median forecast for monthly core CPI was 0.28% (0.3 after rounding up for most econ calendars). Today’s actual number was 0.196–obviously quite a bit lower than forecasts. In addition, supercore fell to .179 from .349. Despite those victories, forecasts correctly predicted a sharp rise in headline inflation which moved up from 2.4% to 3.3% year over year.  Apparently, it’s hard to get excited about buying bonds with headline inflation over 3%, no matter how much one expects it. Yields are actually modestly higher after the data, adding to modest overnight weakness. That said, through 6am, 10yr yields have held in a narrow range that has topped out 2bps below yesterday’s highs.