Shaw, which was part of last year’s standstill agreement with Third Point, said it will support shareholder-driven change on Costar’s board.

In a contentious House Financial Services Committee oversight hearing, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent sidestepped questions on the Trump family crypto conflicts of interest and inflation with pugnacious responses to Democratic lawmakers’ questions.

Home equity investment platforms continue to attract dollars from the venture capital community but also face a proposed de facto ban in one state.

Despite a weak ADP jobs print, Treasury yields went nowhere, reinforcing a growing bearish, defensive case for rates, according to the CEO of IF Securities.

Shore Capital Partners, a Chicago-based private equity firm founded by billionaire Justin Ishbia, has raised more than $400 million for its second industrial fund.

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The average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate hit its highest levels in 2 weeks yesterday. The caveat was that the range has been very narrow during these 2 weeks. As such, by remaining unchanged versus yesterday, today’s rates are part of the same narrow range (6.15-6.20% for MND’s index). There were two relevant economic reports this morning as well as an update from the Treasury department regarding borrowing expectations. The latter is important for interest rates because the level of Treasury issuance is a primary ingredient in determining almost any consumer lending rate in the U.S. Higher issuance would increase the supply of bonds.  Higher bond supply would decrease the price of bonds. And when bond prices fall, rates move higher, all else equal. This morning’s update kept issuance unchanged in the short term, but noted the probability of increased issuance in the next fiscal year.  This put some upward pressure on rates early in the day, but a tame report on the services sector helped bonds find their footing. Flat bonds = flat rates. The end.

No Whammies in Wednesday’s Data. JOLTS Rescheduled for Thursday

With the big jobs report on hold until next Wednesday, this morning’s ADP/ISM duo had to do most of the week’s heavy lifting in terms of important econ data. The response was underwhelming, at best. ADP was a complete non-event, but also fairly close to consensus. ISM was mixed and generally helped bonds hold their ground with yields moving down from highs at 10am. The day’s range remained inside yesterday’s and there were minimal losses by the 3pm close. The JOLTS data that was scheduled for Tuesday will now be coming out on Thursday morning.

Econ Data / Events

ADP Employment

22k vs 48k f’cast, 41k prev

ISM Biz Activity (Jan)

57.4 vs 56.0 prev

ISM N-Mfg PMI (Jan)

53.8 vs 53.5 f’cast, 54.4 prev

ISM Services Employment (Jan)

50.3 vs 52.3 f’cast, 52.0 prev

ISM Services New Orders (Jan)

53.1 vs  57.9 prev

ISM Services Prices (Jan)

66.6 vs  64.3 prev

Market Movement Recap

08:24 AM No major reaction to ADP data.  MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 0.7bps at 4.27

10:03 AM Weaker ISM Services and a slight rally in bonds.  10yr was 4.29, but now down to 4.272.  MBS are 2 ticks (.06) off the lows, but still down 2 ticks on the day.

02:53 PM MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 1.3bps at 4.276

Today’s two key reports are ADP Employment (8:15am ET) and ISM Services (10am ET).  The former came out a bit softer than expected, but bonds didn’t react.  15 minutes later, Treasury released financing estimates for the quarter. These were as-expected and unchanged from the previous quarter, but Treasury noted that issuance would likely need to increase in fiscal year 2027.  Higher issuance = higher rates, all else equal. This wasn’t necessarily a surprise or even “new” info, but the reminder may have been worth a bit of selling at 8:30am.  ISM remains the day’s biggest source of potential volatility. 

Less than 45% of mortgage residential properties in the United States were equity-rich last quarter, a 1.5-percentage-point drop from the third quarter.