In-Range PM Weakness

In-Range PM Weakness

Viewed under a microscope, it may have seemed like today was a relatively volatile session for the bond market.  Weaker opening levels in Treasuries gave way to a mid-day rally that nearly got rates back to unchanged levels. But the afternoon saw steady selling that took bonds to their weakest levels of the session. In the bigger picture, this was a non-event as it leaves trading levels well within the prevailing range. Additionally, there were no compelling justifications for the move unless we want to continue to force the narrative of higher stocks prices leading to higher bond yields (where the correlation has been anything but reliable).

Econ Data / Events

MBA Purchase Index (Feb)/20

149.7 vs — f’cast, 157.1 prev

MBA Refi Index (Feb)/20

1432.9 vs — f’cast, 1375.9 prev

Market Movement Recap

08:58 AM Steadily but modestly weaker overnight. MBS down only 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 1.5bps at 4.05

11:31 AM MBS unchanged and 10yr up less than 1bp at 4.042

01:46 PM MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 0.6bps at 4.041

Re-Settling Into Same Narrow Range Amid Lack of Data

Some days, there’s a lot to say about what’s going on in the bond market. Other days are like today. Analysts have to lean on themes like trading ranges, technicals, and the asset allocation trade (buy stocks / sell bonds, and vice versa). Incidentally, those default explanations continue to hold some water with 10yr yields once again hesitant to push below 4.0% this week and a slow recover in stocks possibly pulling yields a bit higher.  We can also consider a bit of concessionary trading ahead of the 5yr Treasury auction (accounts abstaining from buying now because they have to buy later).

Non-QM, QC, Cash Flow Worksheet, Virtual Economist, Home Equity Closing Products; FHA/VA News

It is no secret that Congress and regulators have trouble keeping up with technology. But is an AI “conversation” with a borrower any different than a questionnaire given to that same borrower? Will the line be drawn at RESPA items? Can regulators audit transcripts of AI “conversations” without court orders? (One way to have the “inside scoop” on issues like this and others is to register for MBA’s National Advocacy Conference (NAC) this April. The early bird special ends Monday, March 2. It’s the industry’s largest advocacy event and the most effective way to represent your state at the national level.) Mark Weber predicts, “We will see a ‘credential implosion’ in mortgage banking. A person shopping for a mortgage can ask Ai about the best loan scenarios and for loan structuring assistance. Why bother with the credential of Certified Mortgage Planner with all those hours studying and human licensing to originate mortgages? Why would the mortgage industry want to protect human capital through regulation? Every knowledge industry is set up for major disruption.” (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by FirstClose, a leading home equity technology platform that combines digital application, automated workflows, integrated vendor management, and seamless LOS connectivity, to turn home equity into a scalable, predictable growth engine. Hear an interview with Optimal Blue’s Erin Wester on the extensive lineup of mortgage capital markets innovations unveiled at 2026 Optimal Blue Summit, including an industry-first AI/ML-powered forecasting tool.)

Mortgage Rates Mostly Holding Long-Term Lows

It may not be as glamorous as being able to say mortgage rates are “in the 5s,” but at 6.00%, today’s MND rate index is a mere 0.01% higher than yesterday’s multi-year low.  For all practical purposes, this means the average borrower will see almost exactly the same rates as yesterday.  In many cases, the quotes will be exactly the same.  There were no big ticket market movers on the econ calendar and no major headlines that caused any appreciable volatility in the bond market (bonds dictate mortgage rates).  In general, the entire week is very quiet in terms of those potential market movers. Rates would need to see a shift in important economic reports before committing to their next major move.