More than half of prospective buyers said they would be comfortable purchasing a home without any direct human involvement, according to an industry survey.

The government-sponsored enterprise left its mortgage rate predictions unchanged for 2026 but revised next year’s likely average slightly upward.

Banking Committee Democrats warned that the Trump administration’s failure to nominate Democrats to vacancies at the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., Securities and Exchange Commission and National Credit Union Administration threatens the bipartisan structure Congress established for financial regulators.

For the fifth time in the past seven weeks, mortgage rates moved higher, Freddie Mac reported, as consumer prices keep rising due to the Iran conflict.

A further reduction in single-family premiums is “definitely something to look at,” said Frank Cassidy, who slashed some for multifamily while at HUD.

Big Rally After More Forceful Peace Deal Announcement

This morning’s commentary noted Trump comments regarding planned air strikes for today. Bonds reacted, but maintained some skepticism. That proved to be a good instinct. At roughly 1:30pm, Trump said the air strikes were cancelled and that all parties had agreed on a deal, and that a time/place for signing would be announced shortly. There wasn’t as much push back against those claims by foreign sources as we’ve often seen in response to similar claims of deals being reached. Stocks surged. Oil plummeted. 10yr yields dropped another 8bps for a total of more than 10 on the day. Almost every lender repriced by a healthy amount. Now we wait for whammies or no whammies. 

Econ Data / Events

Continued Claims (May)/30

1,795K vs 1780K f’cast, 1777K prev

Core PPI m/m (May)

0.4% vs 0.5% f’cast, 1% prev

Core PPI y/y (May)

4.9% vs 5.4% f’cast, 5.2% prev

Jobless Claims (Jun)/06

229K vs 219K f’cast, 225K prev

PPI m/m (May)

1.1% vs 0.7% f’cast, 1.4% prev

PPI y/y (May)

6.5% vs 6.4% f’cast, 6% prev

Market Movement Recap

08:45 AM Initially weaker after PPI and war headlines, but finding some footing. MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 2.8bps at 4.527

01:03 PM MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 1.7bps at 4.537.  Weakest levels since this morning

01:51 PM MBS up half a point and 10yr down 8.2bps at 4.472

03:24 PM MBS up 5/8ths. 10yr down 10.2bps at 4.453

Mortgage rates began the day in uneventful fashion with the average lender right in line with yesterday’s latest levels. Things might have gotten off to a slightly better start, but higher inflation in this morning’s econ data and discouraging war-related headlines put upward pressure on bond yields (yields and rates are technically the same thing and they move in the same direction). The bulk of the day remained uneventful but that changed abruptly at 1:30pm when news circulated that Trump cancelled today’s planned air strikes and said that both sides had approved final details of a permanent ceasefire, and that a time/place of a deal signing would be announced shortly. Markets reacted swiftly with stocks rallying, oil falling, and rates dropping. Mortgage lenders prefer to set rates only once per day, but they will make mid-day changes if the underlying bond market makes a big enough move. Today’s was easily big enough, and a vast majority of lenders made friendly revisions to their daily rate offerings in short order. The net effect brough the average lender to the lowest levels since last Thursday.

Bonds were reasonably stronger in the overnight session with 10yr yields down roughly 4bps from 4.56 to 4.52. About 8 minutes before the PPI data came out, a series of Trump comments on the Iran war sent oil prices and bond yields higher (new strikes and intent to take Kharg Island). PPI added to the pressure with the monthly headline hitting 1.1% vs 0.7% forecast. The fact that core PPI came in at 0.4% vs 0.7% last month tells us that energy prices are the main driver (as does the text of the report itself, oddly enough). In fact, both energy and goods inflation are running higher than post-pandemic.

But the market assumes these can still be relatively short-lived spikes if the war ends. Reason being, even though goods inflation is the highest in decades (month over month), that includes energy-related goods. 

Bonds had already gone through this mental math and found their footing about 6 minutes after the data. A few minutes later, Trump made additional comments that helped push back in the other direction. With that, bonds have regained most of the ground lost earlier this morning.

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Tiffany To, CEO and co-founder of Ontollo, is bringing her background in enterprise artificial intelligence to the board of PennyMac Financial Services.