Wednesday Could Be Entirely Different

Wednesday Could Be Entirely Different

April 7th has been one of the most important days on the calendar for the Iran war due to deadline for Iran to accept Trump’s terms or face major escalation. If the escalation was even remotely similar to Trump’s threats, it would all but preclude a quick end to the war and especially the market-related fallout. heading into the close, Pakistan floated an option for a 2-week ceasefire in exchange for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Markets responded favorably to notion with stocks and bond both rallying and oil prices falling to session lows. Given the absolute and severe nature of the alternative, it would be a surprise if tomorrow didn’t involve a larger than normal move in one direction or the other.

Econ Data / Events

ADP Employment Change Weekly

26K vs — f’cast, 10K prev

Core CapEx (Feb)

0.6% vs 0.4% f’cast, 0% prev

Durable goods (Feb)

-1.4% vs -0.5% f’cast, 0% prev

Market Movement Recap

09:03 AM Flat overnight. MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down just under 1bp at 4.331

09:41 AM Down an eighth of a point in MBS and 10yr up 1.7bps at 4.356

11:30 AM Near weakest levels. MBS down a quarter point and 10yr up 2.3bps at 4.364

03:07 PM Decent recovery. MBS down only an eighth and 10yr down almost half a bp at 4.336

04:34 PM well into the green now on ceasefire optimism. MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 3.5bps at 4.305

AI Assistant, eSignature, Subservicing, AI Adoption Products; VA Servicing and Loss Mit Update

Artificial intelligence is all the rage in conferences and webinars, and today’s Advisory Angle at 2PM ET, powered by STRATMOR Group. Sue Woodard and Garth Graham break down the biggest takeaways from ICE Experience 2026 and what they mean for lenders right now. The discussion focuses on borrower expectations, AI adoption, and how leading organizations are aligning strategy with long-term outcomes. Tomorrow’s “Mortgage Matters: The Weekly Roundup” presented by Lenders One, has the CHLA’s Scott Olsen discussing how and what independent mortgage bankers are doing in the current AI, regulatory, and origination environment. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by JazzX, the first true end-to-end AI platform built for mortgage. From application to underwriting, JazzX is a new operating model that helps you scale growth, boost productivity, and transform how your team performs. Hear an interview with Moder’s Erik Andersen on the company’s strategic partnership with Palantir Technologies to co-build an AI-powered mortgage operations platform.) Products, Services, and Software for Brokers and Lenders “AI in mortgage is everywhere, but where is it actually driving real results versus just hype? Join JazzX AI for on Monday, April 20th at 1PM ET/10AM PT for our webinar AI in Mortgage: From Pilot to Production – How Leading Lenders Are Deploying AI Today. We’ll be joined by leaders from across the industry to unpack how they’re prioritizing AI use cases, measuring ROI, and turning early experiments into meaningful impact. You’ll hear candid lessons on what’s working, what’s not, and how teams are thinking about time-to-value as AI adoption accelerates. Reserve your spot today to hear how leading lenders are turning AI into real results.”

Mortgage Rates Little-Changed But Volatility Could Return Quickly

In stark contrast to the entire month of March, April’s mortgage rate volatility has been downright boring. To put this in context, the average top tier 30yr fixed rate rose a substantial 0.65% by March 27th. In the first five business days of April, they’ve held inside a range of just 0.04%. Today did nothing to expand that range although it did leave rates microscopically higher versus yesterday. The Iran war continues to be the dominant source of inspiration for the financial markets, including the bond market that underlies interest rates. Given that tonight brings a deadline for a potentially major escalation in the war, there’s a risk of volatility heading into tomorrow.

Waiting on Tonight’s Ceasefire Headlines

Tonight brings 8pm ET deadline for Iran’s response to U.S. demands (opening shipping channels among other things). If there’s no response, Trump has threatened to attack critical infrastructure like bridges, power plants, etc.–a major escalation that would all but guarantee a much longer run of high oil prices (and all that goes with it). Reports of progress in peace talks (or lack thereof) are all over the map depending on who’s reporting and when. If there’s a genuine de-escalation (which could be announced hours before the deadline), you’ll know it based on the market response. If it happens after the close, futures/forex markets would still provide evidence of the market’s reaction. Between now and then, it’s just a waiting game with no clear direction.