Modest Gains After Opening Weaker

Modest Gains After Opening Weaker

Tuesday ended up being a uneventful trading session despite 10yr yields hitting 3-week highs. Those highs were in place right at the open and things gradually improved from there. Markets are expressing a token amount of concern over the lack of progress on US/Iran peace, which  continues to be the biggest potential market mover. Notably, there was also an obvious reaction to Consumer Confidence data today (even though it was very small). This lets us know we can’t tune out other econ data just because the broader momentum is more likely tied to geopolitical developments. 

Econ Data / Events

ADP Employment Change Weekly

39.25K vs — f’cast, 54.75K prev

Case Shiller Home Prices-20 y/y (Feb)

0.9% vs 1.1% f’cast, 1.2% prev

CaseShiller 20 mm nsa (Feb)

0.4% vs — f’cast, -0.1% prev

FHFA Home Price Index m/m (Feb)

0.0% vs 0.2% f’cast, 0.1% prev

FHFA Home Prices y/y (Feb)

1.7% vs — f’cast, 1.6% prev

Consumer Confidence

92.8 vs 89.0 f’cast, 92.2 prev

Market Movement Recap

09:14 AM Modestly weaker overnight. 10yr up 2bps at 4.362 and MBS down 3 ticks (.09).

11:07 AM MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 1.8bps at 4.359

02:29 PM MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 1.5bps at 4.357. No reaction to 7 year auction

Highest Yields in 3 Weeks as US Shuns Iran Proposal

Bonds sold off slowly and steadily overnight, largely tracing a similarly steady rise in oil prices. The latter is most easily attributed to reports that Trump is not happy with the latest Iran peace proposal although those reports stopped short of saying the proposal was flat-out rejected. There was additional volatility in oil prices surrounding news that the UAE is pulling out of OPEC, but that mostly resolved with oil moving off the highs (more competition, less supply throttling expected). Most recently a decent showing in Consumer Confidence is keeping bonds in a defensive stance.

Investor, Workflow, Accounting, AI, DPA Tools; LOs and Technology; Fed Meeting Starts

The big keep getting bigger: Real Brokerage announced that it is purchasing RE/MAX for $550 million, revealing that, including debt, the deal is worth an estimated $880 million. The name will be the Real REMAX Group (“a transformative opportunity to fuse REMAX’s strong brand equity with leading AI technology”) and it’s been reported that Motto Mortgage, owned by RE/MAX, will retain its current business model of a mortgage brokerage franchisor following the completion of this deal. REMAX doesn’t belong to the National Association of Realtors, although “they” say that 87 percent of real estate agents are NAR members. NAR tells us that 63 percent of its members are female. There are agents who are part-time license holders, people who got licensed but never entered the business, and even agents on a team where all deals are closed under the team leader. The 2025 NAR Member Profile paints a different picture. Among REALTORS® specializing in residential sales, only 5 percent reported zero transaction sides in 2024, the typical Realtor completed 10 transaction sides, and Realtors with two years or less experience reported a median of 3 transactions. LOs should be careful who they call on! (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Figure, which is shaking up the lending world with their five-day HELOC, offering borrower approvals in as little as five minutes and funding in five days. Figure has hundreds of partners in the Banking, Credit Union, Home Improvement, and of course, IMB space embedding their technology. Today’s has an interview with Seroka’s John Seroka on how brands are discovered by prioritizing credible, structured, and widely validated information over traditional SEO, making it critical for companies to build consistent digital authority and trust signals.)

Mortgage Rates Rise to 2-Week Highs

Mortgage rates moved moderately higher today for the average lender, but not for any exciting reasons. Rather, the change has more to do with timing of the underlying market movement. While it’s true that mortgage rates are directly influenced by the bond market, mortgage lenders prefer to set rates once per day. From there, they will occasionally make adjustments if the bond market experiences enough volatility. The catch is that lenders are less likely to adjust rates the later it is in the afternoon and if the bond market has been changing steadily/gradually. With all that in mind, yesterday saw a steady, gradual decline in the bond market that persisted into the late afternoon. As such, most lenders didn’t go to the trouble of adjusting rates yesterday. In other words, the average lender was already planning on raising rates a bit this morning even if the bond market started the day flat. But bonds lost even more ground this morning (before lenders decided on rates for the day). Bottom line, lenders were tasked with adjusting for 2 days of modest weakness all at once. The result is a move that is bigger than the average recent day, but not because the underlying market movement was bigger or more volatile than average. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]