Roughly Unchanged After Moderate Headline-Driven Volatility

As has been the recent custom, there were dueling headlines concerning the Iran war today with opposing claims regarding the status of the Israel/Lebanon ceasefire. If that sounds like kind of a stretch when it comes to bond market significance, bond traders agreed.  That said, it was still traded to some extent. This resulted in mid-day volatility that took bonds from slightly weaker to slightly stronger territory, and then back to being roughly unchanged. Econ data was a relative non-event in the morning, but Friday’s data has a slightly better chance of garnering a response.

Econ Data / Events

Jobless Claims (Apr)/04

219K vs 210K f’cast, 202K prev

Continued Claims (Mar)/28

1794.0K vs 1840K f’cast, 1841K prev

Core PCE (m/m) (Feb)

0.4% vs 0.4% f’cast, 0.4% prev

Core PCE (y/y) (Feb)

3.0% vs 3% f’cast, 3.1% prev

GDPQ4

0.5% vs 0.7% f’cast, 4.4% prev

GDP Final SalesQ4

0.3% vs 0.4% f’cast, 4.5% prev

Market Movement Recap

08:37 AM Very flat overnight. Slightly weaker after data. MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up half a bp at 4.30

10:31 AM weakest levels. MBS down 9 ticks (.28) and 10yr up 1.4bps at 4.311

11:38 AM 10s now down 1bp at 4.285. MBS are within 1 tick (.03) of unchanged.

01:39 PM Best levels of the day for 10s, down 3.2bps at 4.264.  MBS unchanged (also near opening highs).

03:37 PM Off the best levels, but not with sustained selling. MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 1bp at 4.288