Rough Week For Bonds. No Help From Friendly Data

Rough Week For Bonds. No Help From Friendly Data

Bonds managed to recover modestly after the initial yield spike in the morning hours, but nonetheless earned the honor of seeing the biggest week over week jump in 10yr yields since 1981 (note: some outlets are saying 2001 or 1987, but we’re not seeing that, and it doesn’t really matter.  It was a rough week, is the point). Looked at as a 2 week time frame, and it was on par with many other recent examples of moderately brisk selling.  That leaves the upcoming week and a half in a great position to let us know how freaked out we should be. 

Econ Data / Events

Core MM PPI

-0.1 vs +0.3 f’cast, 0.1 prev

Core YY PPI

3.3 vs 3.6 f’cast, 3.4 prev

Consumer Sentiment

50.8 vs 54.5 f’cast

1yr inflation expectations

6.7 vs 5.0 previously

5yr inflation expectations

4.4 vs 4.1 previously

Market Movement Recap

09:34 AM Losing ground despite softer PPI.  MBS down more than a quarter point and 10yr up 6.4bps at 4.496

12:51 PM Nice reversal off weaker levels.  MBS now down only an eighth  and 10yr up only 2.2bps at 4.45

02:35 PM Fizzling sideways now.  MBS down 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr up 6.7bps at 4.499

The Reasons May be Esoteric, But The Selling is Real

The Reasons May be Esoteric, But The Selling is Real

Bonds sold off today, in spite of a very bond-friendly CPI. One reason for that is the market’s assumption that it will need to wait and see what tariffs do to inflation in the coming months. Another reason is the laundry list of reasons discussed in yesterday’s recap. A new reason added to today’s mix in the form of the passage of the budget framework in the House.  As passed, there is $1.5 trillion in spending cuts staked simply on reassurances from Johnson and Thune. Markets didn’t love the implications for Treasury issuance.  The long end of the yield curve (10yr, 30yr, etc) took most of the damage while Fed rate expectations keep the short end of the curve anchored (i.e. a 2yr Treasury won’t drift too far above medium term Fed Funds Rate expectations).  So bonds had selling to do and 2s weren’t eligible, per se. Result: bigger sell-off than we otherwise would have seen in 10s/30s.  

Econ Data / Events

Core MM CPI 

0.1 vs 0.3 f’cast, 0.2 prev
unrounded 0.057

Core YY CPI

2.7 vs 3.0 f’cast, 3.1 prev

MM Headline CPI

-0.1 vs 0.1 f’cast, 0.2 prev

Jobless Claims

223k vs 223k f’cast, 219k prev

Market Movement Recap

11:19 AM Paradoxically modestly weaker after CPI data.  MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 1.3bps at 4.34 ( up from lows of 4.29+).

12:13 PM Weakest levels.  MBS down nearly 3/8ths and 10yr up 2bps at 4.373

03:30 PM New lows, down almost half a point in MBS and up 5bps at 4.40 in 10yr yield.