The National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) slipped modestly in January, easily prolonging its stay in a narrow range near all-time lows. Pending home sales decreased 0.8% month over month and were down 0.4% compared with the same time last year. While affordability conditions have improved somewhat as mortgage rates trend closer to 6%, the improvement has failed to bolster contract activity. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun noted that lower rates have expanded the pool of mortgage-eligible households, potentially adding hundreds of thousands of new buyers this year. However, he cautioned that without a meaningful increase in housing supply, additional demand could simply push prices higher and renew affordability pressure. The Midwest and West posted monthly gains, while the Northeast and South declined. On a yearly basis however, the picture changes, with the South and West slightly positive and the Northeast and Midwest down from a year ago—reinforcing the fact that sales activity remains uneven and regional. Regional Breakdown (Month-Over-Month)
Northeast: −5.7%
Midwest: +5.0%
South: −4.5%
West: +4.3%
Regional YoY Change
Northeast: −8.3%
Midwest: −3.3%
South: +4.0%
West: +0.3%

Mail-related check fraud never seems to go away, and the FBI reminds us that blue gel pens certainly help in reducing check fraud. “Rob, are you hearing that the increase in the popularity of artificial intelligence has led to an increase in mortgage fraud?” Yes, I have. It can be insidious… it may not show up until months or years have passed. Investors are becoming more and more wary. AI proponents say, however, that AI can be very good at detecting fraud. So, you decide. Few mortgage court cases ever make it to a jury to decide anything, but the industry is watching a class action lawsuit that alleges Rocket Companies and its subsidiaries illegally steered homebuyers to its in-house mortgage and title services. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Optimal Blue. The only end-to-end capital markets platform built to power performance, precision, and profitability. Modern. Proven. Optimal Blue. Hear an interview with MAXEX’s Tom Pearce on the partnership with Tradeweb to create a more centralized, transparent, and scalable institutional marketplace for U.S. residential mortgage loans.) Products, Services, and Software for Brokers and Lenders Truework is a comprehensive income and employment verification platform that fully replaces manual in-house waterfalls and provides mortgage lenders with a single automated solution to run their verification processes. With Truework, lenders see up to 50% cost savings on verifications while increasing speed, accuracy, and R&W relief. We also offer free pre-approvals to help you qualify borrowers faster… only pay when we complete a file. Trusted by 4 of the top 5 lenders in the U.S., Truework is built to deliver results. Learn more.

The New York City-based lender, whose roots lie in taxi lending, believes an expanded home-improvement loan operation will generate mid-teen loan growth this year.

The increase in borrower activity came as housing starts ended 2025 on a high note, while mortgage rates were a percentage point lower year-over-year.

The impact of insurance costs, availability and related state rules also were top of mind at the Mortgage Bankers Association servicing conference.

The lawsuit accuses Veterans United of deceptively suggesting it’s part of the Department of Veterans Affairs and steering clients to more costly loans.

While the Freddie Mac survey recorded a weekly decline, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield had moved back up by 6 basis points around midday on Thursday.

Bonds Punt. Focus Turns to Friday’s Econ Data

Bonds spent the past 2 days pushing back toward slightly higher yields after the 10yr nearly hit 4.0% in Tuesday’s overnight session. While there was probably some technical resistance at work, Thursday suggests it wasn’t a lasting, thematic shift. In other words, rather than remain committed to an ongoing push back toward higher levels, yields were flat to slightly lower. Perhaps this is as simple as 10yr yields hitting the 4.10 mark this morning and traders playing a narrow 4.0-4.10 range until econ data makes a breakout suggestion. On that note, Friday is the busiest morning of the week with the 1st look at Q4 GDP as well as December PCE inflation.

Econ Data / Events

Jobless Claims (Feb)/14

206K vs 225K f’cast, 227K prev

Philly Fed Business Index (Feb)

16.3 vs 8.5 f’cast, 12.6 prev

Market Movement Recap

08:41 AM Weaker overnight and little reaction to econ data. MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 2.5bps at 4.102

12:08 PM Steady gains all morning. MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up less than half a bp at 4.081

01:38 PM Best levels of the day. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 1bp at 4.068

For the average lender, top-tier 30yr fixed mortgage rates were perfectly unchanged compared to yesterday. This keeps them right in line with the lowest levels in more than 3 years. That said, if we’re splitting hairs, better rates were available 4 days in the past month and a half (Jan 9, Jan 12, Feb 13, Feb 17). So why is it that there are news headlines today claiming that rates hit their lowest levels in more than 3 years? Simply put, those stories are based on weekly survey data from Freddie Mac. Freddie isn’t technically wrong, but you have to understand their methodology. Freddie’s survey is an average of the rates available from last Thursday through yesterday. Indeed, if you use the numbers from our daily rate index on those days, the average is the lowest in 3 years, even if today’s rates are a hair higher than several recent days.

It’s hard to believe that the COVID pandemic was six years ago with its increase in deaths. For our biz, we switched to “work from home,” among other changes. Along those lines, I received this note: “Rob, are you hearing about a concern among lenders about the liquidity of the non-QM sector? As in a repeat of March 2020 when many non-QM lenders suspended their programs due to volatile market conditions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, hurting the ability to submit, underwrite, lock, or fund non-QM loans?” Personally, I don’t foresee that, but liquidity should always be discussion topic. In my 40+ capital markets years, I’ve never seen anyone hedge credit risk. Hedging a non-QM pipeline is a complicated question. If you think about the risk-free baseline, Treasury securities come to mind. For Agency loans, let’s say QM loans, there’s a spread above Treasury securities based on credit risk and prepayment risk. For non-QM loans, there’s another spread above QM loans, primarily based on credit but also loan size, geography, etc. Be careful out there! (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Optimal Blue. The only end-to-end capital markets platform built to power performance, precision, and profitability. Modern. Proven. Optimal Blue. Hear an interview with economist Elliot Eisenberg on trends seen across economic data and how high the bar has become for the Fed to justify easing if headline resilience persists.) Products, Services, and Software for Brokers and Lenders