“Did you hear about the Chinese guy who spoke out against the government? Exactly.” Hate the U.S. Government or love it, sometimes government and lender interaction is beneficial, sometimes not. The ongoing federal government shutdown not only has impacted citizen’s psychology, but has hit FHA and VA loan processing via reduced staff, creating endorsement delays of days to weeks. USDA loans remain completely halted for new guarantees, although it appears that IRS transcript processing, and other verification services needed for all loan types, is functioning. The NAR (National Association of Realtors) estimates approximately 1,400 property transactions per day could be affected when the shutdown went beyond 30 days. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has suspended publication of economic data, leaving markets and policymakers without critical employment and inflation reports, grinding down bond market activity. Furloughed workers certainly aren’t buying homes. (Today’s podcast can be found here and Sponsored by ICE. As the standard for innovation, artificial intelligence, efficiency and scalability, ICE is the technology of choice for the majority of industry participants, defining the future of homeownership. Today’s features an interview with ICE’s Dana Federspiel on the key challenges servicers and subservicers are facing in a rapidly evolving industry, how servicers can achieve greater scalability and efficiency, and which regulatory issues may impact the sector heading into 2026.)

Today is a rare day when it comes to economic data.  The first Wednesday of any given month is often an important one for economic data because ISM Services often falls on Wednesday, joining ADP to create a duo with a strong track record of market movement.  In today’s case, because of the government shutdown, it means we’re getting a higher proportion of market-moving data inside a 2 hour window than any other day (or even entire week) could possibly offer. Unfortunately, neither report was bond-friendly. Thankfully though, ADP wasn’t exceptionally unfriendly. Additionally, at 48.2, ISM’s employment component remains under 50 (the dividing line between expansion and contraction) and barely beat the 47.6 forecast. These “yeah buts” are likely limiting the damage we’d otherwise be seeing, but there is nonetheless some damage to see.

Home price modeling changes hurt FOA’s third-quarter interim results but it was in the black between January and September on a continuing operations basis.

While FHFA reduced most of the single-family low-income goals, the MBA wants the refinance target for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac cut as well, its letter said.

The latest case comes after at least three other zombie lawsuits in the past year, with the owner of the loan in question claiming $173,000 in past-due interest.

Newer automation that can serve as a wraparound to existing technology can cut servicing costs in a competitive industry, according to fintech executives.

The age at which people purchase their first home has climbed rapidly since 2021, when the median was 33, according to a National Association of Realtors survey of transactions from July 2024 through June.

Wednesday More Likely to Take Cues From Econ Data

Bonds benefited from heavy stock selling late in the overnight session. This is not the typical pattern seen these days, but it’s not uncommon to see some positive spillover into bonds when stock losses are sharp enough. In any event, it’s not something to count on when it comes to tomorrow’s motivations. For that, we actually have economic data for a change. In the absence of government agency data, if we had to pick 2 reports to carry the torch, they would be ADP employment and ISM Services PMI. Tomorrow brings us both releases and, thus, a strong chance to see data-driven volatility. 

Market Movement Recap

09:15 AM modestly stronger overnight and holding gains so far.  MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 1.4bps at 4.095

01:39 PM Sideways near best levels. MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 2.6bps at 4.083

04:48 PM Heading out at best levels.  MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 2.5bps at 4.084

The inspector general’s office, responsible for overseeing the regulator, now sits vacant amid Director Bill Pulte’s swift changes and numerous fraud probes.

The agreement, if approved by a federal judge, would end litigation over two distinct cybersecurity incidents in 2021 which affected over 2 million customers.