Just as Underwhelming as Expected

Just as Underwhelming as Expected

No sense in trying to manufacture excitement out of something boring. Even before Fed speakers went into the customary blackout period 12 days ago, it was already abundantly clear that they were all on the same page–a page of uncertainty in an uncertain chapter of an uncertain book.  Nothing had changed in the past 12 days that would allow the Fed or Powell to be any less uncertain about which of the two competing forces on rates would win out in the coming weeks/months.  As such, there was nothing Powell could do but reiterate that fact 17 times for the 17 different versions of the same question. It’s no surprise bonds are heading out the door precisely in line with pre-Fed levels.

Market Movement Recap

09:15 AM Sideways to slightly weaker overnight with a modest bounce in early trading.  MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up less than 1bp at 4.305

02:05 PM 10yr yields are down 3.0bps on the day at 4.268 and MB are up 6 ticks (.19).

03:23 PM Some back and forth during press conference, but largely at pre-Fed levels.  MBS up just over an eighth and 10yr down 2bps at 4.278

Mortgage Rates Lower After Fed Announcement, But Not Because of It

There’s nothing like a Fed announcement day to get almost every media outlet to run headlines that attempt to tie the day’s market movement to the Fed’s rate decision. The problem in today’s case is that there wasn’t even anything remotely resembling a decision, nor did anyone expect there to be. Markets were effectively betting on a zero percent chance of a rate cut at this meeting, and that’s been the case for several weeks. Fed speakers had also been very clear in their shoulder shrugs during that time, saying that there are two big policy considerations in play right now, each arguing in the opposite direction. Specifically, the Fed has a mandate to “promote maximum employment,” which could also be viewed as “promote a strong economy,” and a mandate for “price stability,” which is fancy talk for the Fed’s inflation fighting role.  When Fed speakers have recently referred to those two mandates being in tension, they mean the potential drag on the economy from tariffs and tighter fiscal policy argues in favor of lower rates if it translates to higher unemployment and weaker economic data.  Contrast that to the potential increase in inflation due to tariffs, which argues in favor of higher rates. Simply put, there was nothing the Fed could do today but sit on its hands and wait to see which side of the mandate ended up having more compelling evidence, and nothing for Fed Chair Powell to do but reiterate that fact multiple times when almost every reporter asked a different version of the same question.