The average top-tier mortgage rates made it back to 5.99% yesterday for the first time since January 9th and only the second time in more than 3 years. With rates holding perfectly steady today, this is the 3rd day that matches that multi-year low. In one important way, the past 2 days represent a bigger victory for rates. Back on January 9th, the MND rate index only hit 5.99 for a few hours before bouncing. The next month and a half saw the average well into the low 6s. Contrast that to the current case where we’ve approached 5.99% more slowly and, thus far, are holding it much more steadily. All that having been said, there’s never a guarantee that tomorrow’s rates will be as low even if there aren’t any economic reports that suggest a potentially volatile response. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]

At the Optimal Blue Summit going on now, sessions range from AI to loan officer tools to market strategy, product unveilings built to transform pricing, trading, and profitability. Will AI help? A study published this month by the National Bureau of Economic Research found that among 6,000 CEOs, chief financial officers, and other executives from firms who responded to various business outlook surveys in the U.S., U.K., Germany, and Australia, the vast majority see little impact from AI on their operations. Speaking of which, today’s Mortgages With Millennials at 1PM ET, sponsored by Insellerate, Phil Ganz of Next Wave Mortgage discusses reducing operational friction while expanding access to homeownership, as well as down payment assistance strategy, digital systems, and how loan officers can better serve first time buyers in a margin conscious market. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by FirstClose. FirstClose Equity gets you to closings faster by empowering borrowers with vital property decisioning data. It is the only end-to-end digital HELOC & HEL solution built specifically for home equity. Hear an interview with Plantd’s Josh Dorfman on the intersection of sustainability, capital markets, housing, and pragmatic climate solutions for business and policy leaders.) Products, Services, and Software for Brokers and Lenders Disclosure speed is now a margin issue. Feewise is the enterprise disclosure manufacturing platform that turns mortgage compliance from bottleneck to business accelerator. Integrated into your existing technology stack and accessed from your POS or LOS, Feewise allows originators to self-serve LEs, CDs, CoCs, and full disclosure packages. Feewise provides the best possible starting point for every loan and serves all channels of business. Want to scale volume without adding staff? Ready to eliminate tolerance cures? Visit us at kiosk #17 inside the showroom floor at ICE Experience 2026, March 15-18. Contact info@feewise.com to schedule a product demonstration.

Volume and volatility is lower this morning compared to yesterday, but the same theme of risk aversion looks to be in play, probably.  Why “probably?” Because the theme in question (risk aversion, or what we sometimes refer to as the “stock lever”) oftentimes makes it hard to distinguish between correlation and causality. All we know so far today is that both stocks and bond yields are sightly higher from yesterday’s lows and have been generally sideways so far today. The econ calendar remains light in terms of importance, despite plenty of line items.

Home buyers working with the originator won’t have to liquidate their digital assets to access purchase, refinance, second-home or investment loans.

Some mortgage companies are taking advantage of a loan-interest deduction that was designed to benefit community banks, a Washington State legislator alleged.

A median-income household could comfortably afford a $331,483 home with a 20% down payment in January, $30,000 more than a year ago, Zillow found.

The sector has specialized data that experts can help with and may mitigate cyclical risk, but costs and customers are considerations, an industry veteran says.

Gatti will be based in the firm’s Washington, D.C. office, where he focuses on structuring and executing asset-backed securities deals and other structured finance transactions.

General Risk Aversion Trade Helping Bonds

Bonds began the day in just barely stronger territory but continued to improve throughout. The first rally followed the 8:20am CME open–a common time of day to see a bit of extra momentum and volume. The next leg of the rally played out in the 10am hour which is when stocks did all of their selling for the day. That dynamic lends itself to the conclusion that the broader market is trading in a “risk-off” pattern amid global trade uncertainty. 

Econ Data / Events

Factory Orders

-0.7 vs -0.5 f’cast, 2.7 prev

Market Movement Recap

09:52 AM Modestly stronger overnight and holding gains. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 2.6bps at 4.061

11:37 AM Best levels of the day. MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 5.5bps at 4.033

02:25 PM Holding at strongest levels. MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 6.2bps at 4.025

This coverage is coming out earlier than normal due to a more interesting headline than normal. The average top-tier 30yr fixed rate fell back to 5.99% today, matching the levels seen only briefly back on January 9th, 2026 when the Fannie/Freddie bond buying plans were announced. Much like the last time, there’s always a risk that something happens to prompt a bond market reversal today. If that happens, mortgage lenders could raise rates in the middle of the day.  But unlike last time, mortgage rates have eased down to current levels in a much more gradual and–dare we say–sustainable way. After all, today’s improvement is only a moderate 0.05% vs Friday. Back on January 9th, the initial day-over-day jump was more than 0.20%. There’s no new news causing the improvement. The broader bond market has gradually improved to the best levels since November and the mortgage-backed securities market (the bonds that directly dictate mortgage rates) have performed better than normal vs the broader market due to Fannie/Freddie purchases.  As always, keep in mind that 5.99% is a “top-tier” average among multiple lenders. This means that for a scenario with high FICO, high down payment and no other hits to pricing, various lenders will be quoting 5.875, 6.00, and 6.125% predominantly. Also keep in mind that many rates are quoted with different levels of upfront costs. There’s no way to assess the strength of a rate quote without knowing the rest of those upfront costs.