Early in the trading session, the bond market began improving in response to more updates on a potential Iran peace deal. When bonds improve, rates fall, but the initial reaction proved short-lived.  Thankfully, the reversal didn’t do any new damage. This allowed the average lender to keep rates right in line with yesterday’s 6.61% for a top-tier 30 year fixed. You’d have to go back to May 14th to see anything lower.

How ‘bout this one: A firefighter went to the college graduation ceremony for a baby he helped deliver many years ago. Loan originators can be involved in many life events of their clients as well, as the months and years roll on, something that a software program can’t do. They’re also in a great position to explain the nuances of the summer home buying season to clients. They know that rates aren’t the only thing making homes unaffordable. The median home price rose from $274,900 in Q4 2019 to $414,900 in Q4 2025, according to the National Association of Realtors. That has affected affordability much more than the rise in mortgage rates (the average 30-year fixed rate increased from 3.90 percent at the end of 2019 to 6-something percent today, let’s say about 6.16 percent because I saw that number somewhere). If we apply those rates on top of the median home prices in question and assume a 20 percent down payment, we get monthly principal and interest payments of $1,037 at 3.90 percent and $1,341 at 6.16 percent if the home costs $274,900. With a median home price of $414,900, those monthly payments go to $1,566 at 3.90 percent and $2,024 at 6.16 percent. Higher prices are impacting affordability significantly more than higher rates. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by NFTYDoor, the white-label HELOC platform for banks, credit unions, and brokers. Close in zero days with warehouse funding. Power your home equity lending with NFTYDoor. Today’s features an interview with NEO Home Loans Ryan Grant on the evolution of interactions between mortgage professionals and borrowers, and how companies can best provide support to origination staff.)

It seems that we’ve seen slight variations on the same peace deal news for the past several days. That’s probably because there is an actual peace deal that’s probably near the actual finish line and that’s probably why the market is actually willing to trade it. This morning’s headlines were as simple as any recent example: Iran’s state TV obtained a draft of the peace framework with the key inclusion being a commitment to restoring commercial traffic through Hormuz within one month. Bond yields dropped about 2bps on the news and MBS rallied about an eighth of a point–fairly tame, but clearly connected.

Current CEO Rick Thornberry is retiring as Radian shifts to a multi-line business, with former Mr. Cooper President Mike Weinbach taking over on Aug. 13.

Certain private-label securities may get a lower risk weighting for bank capital and separately, second liens have new uniform guidelines for TRID.

Home prices rose 0.7% annually in March, down from a 0.8% increase in the previous month, according to the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller home price index.

Crude oil futures dropped sharply Sunday, triggering bullish Treasury gaps. The head of correspondent business development at AD Mortgage writes about what it means for yields.

Insurance claims dropped in 2025, but covered loss amounts didn’t follow, largely due to the severity of the Southern California wildfires, Rate reported.

Good Reminder That The Market Gets to Decide What Matters

If oil, Treasuries, stocks, and the rest of the market were completely closed, and if we could only estimate the probable impact of the news that’s been available over the past 3 days, it would be hard to make that case that bond yields should be any lower than they were on Friday. In fact, some of the newswires (the ones citing various military clashes) might lead one to suspect yields should be higher. But here we are with 10s down more than 6bps and MBS up almost half a point just after 3pm ET–a good reminder that the market gets to decide what to make of the available news.

Econ Data / Events

Philly Fed Non Manufacturing

-23.6 vs -13.0 f’cast

Chicago Fed Activity Index

.14 vs -.03

Market Movement Recap

08:43 AM Overnight peace optimism gains holding. MBS up half a point and 10yr down 8bps at 4.482

11:02 AM Off best levels. MBS up 3/8ths and 10yr down 5.6bps at 4.502

02:45 PM Modest recovery. MBS up 14 ticks (.44) and 10yr down 6.1bps at 4.498

The shift gathered pace at the most recent policy meeting in April, when three voters on the Federal Open Market Committee voted against the decision to hold rates steady.