While existing home sales aren’t measured in GDP, many of the things which come along with it are, and those are likely to start trending down, First American said.

While foreclosure numbers in the first six months of this year were up compared to 2024, starts eased as the spring progressed, according to Attom.

The merger of the firm’s lending arm and Figure Markets is a reaction to a thawing regulatory environment.

New residential construction increased 4.6% to an annualized rate of 1.32 million homes last month, picking up after an almost 10% slide in May, according to government figures released Friday.

The legislation is a direct response to HUD’s effective elimination of the PAVE task force and comes amid ongoing debates over DEI policies in the federal government.

Needle Threaded. Now What?

As always, big-ticket data and/or news headlines have  potential energy in terms of their impact on bonds/rates.  For instance, this week’s CPI could have caused a big move higher or lower. Same story with Trump/Powell headlines. Realized impacts of high-potential-energy events can vary quite a bit.  All too often, separate considerations, data line-items, or headlines and subsequent retractions act as offsetting penalties that return the bond market to the original line of scrimmage. Such was the case this week and Friday didn’t do anything to change that.  In fact, it solidified the feat. From here, in terms of what’s on the calendar, apart from the lame duck Fed announcement at the end of July, we’re mostly waiting for the next jobs report in early August.

Econ Data / Events

Consumer Sentiment

61.8 vs 61.5 f’cast, 60.7 prev

1yr inflation expectations

down 0.6%

5yr inflation expectations

down 0.4%

Market Movement Recap

10:22 AM Modestly stronger overnight and sideways so far.  MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 2.2bps at 4.431

01:49 PM Sideways to slightly stronger.  MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 3.3bps at 4.42

05:27 PM Same levels as the last update and that’s a wrap for the week.  Bonds almost perfectly unchanged from last Friday.

While any rate watcher’s bingo card should always have a few squares devoted to “unchanged, flat, etc.,” this week’s had at least as many squares reserved for a big reaction to inflation data.  Specifically, Tuesday’s inflation data had the power to cause a big move in rates.  While it was the week’s biggest influence, rates actually managed to hold flat overall. Friday did very little to alter that reality. By Thursday, we were already back in line with last week’s latest levels. Friday technically pushed our 30yr fixed index 0.01% lower, so it’s a victory despite being the smallest variety. We’re not able to read much–if anything–into this flatness.  Inflation data and news headlines amounted to a threading of the proverbial needle. Without any decisive momentum from this week’s events, we’re now likely waiting until the first week of August before scheduled data has another chance to cause a big reaction.

Mortgage application activity dropped sharply last week as rates moved higher, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) latest survey. The Composite Index fell 10.0% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending July 11, reversing much of the prior week’s gain. “Mortgage rates rose last week following higher Treasury yields, which weighed on both purchase and refinance demand,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Refinance activity declined, and purchase applications fell to their lowest level since May.” Refinance applications fell 7% from the previous week but remain roughly 25% higher than the same week one year ago. Purchase applications declined 12% on a seasonally adjusted basis. The unadjusted index increased 11% week-over-week and is still about 13% higher than 2024 levels, reflecting a modest improvement in year-over-year comparisons despite recent volatility. The average 30-year fixed rate rose to 6.82%—up slightly from the prior week—while points held steady or edged lower depending on loan type. Mortgage Rate Summary:

Loan Type
Rate
Change
Points
Change

30yr Fixed
6.82%
+0.03
0.62
0.00

15yr Fixed
6.11%
+0.05
0.66
−0.01

Jumbo 30yr
6.81%
+0.03
0.39
−0.01

FHA
6.55%
+0.02
0.74
−0.02

5/1 ARM
6.01%
+0.02
0.58
−0.02

Builders are placing their better days in the future according to the National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) and Wells Fargo’s latest Housing Market Index (HMI). Buoyed by longer-run expectations, the headline builder confidence index rose one point to 33, but remained deep in pessimistic territory, marking the 15th consecutive month below the key threshold of 50. Underlying components of the index were mixed:
Current sales conditions rose one point to 36
Sales expectations for the next 6 months climbed 3 points to 43 
Buyer traffic slipped one point to 20
High mortgage rates, elevated construction costs, and persistent affordability challenges continue to weigh on builder confidence. In response, many builders are offering concessions to attract hesitant buyers. The share of builders reporting price reductions rose to 38% in July, the highest since NAHB began monthly tracking in 2022. The average price cut remained at 5%. Sales incentives remained widespread as well, with 62% of builders reporting some form of incentive—unchanged from June. While the small uptick in sentiment may reflect cautious optimism in certain segments of the market, the overall outlook remains subdued. Builders continue to face significant headwinds, and buyer traffic is still near post-pandemic lows.

The latest Residential Construction report from the Census Bureau showed a mixed bag for June, with a modest gain in overall housing starts driven by a rebound in multifamily construction, while single-family activity continued to decline. Building permits were essentially flat, suggesting a pause in the momentum seen earlier this year. As usual, the market focuses most on building permits and housing starts, with the latter representing the beginning of actual construction activity. Total starts rose 5.2% to an annual pace of 1.321 million, up from a revised 1.256 million in May. The increase was entirely due to a sharp rebound in multifamily starts, which surged from 316k to 414k—more than reversing the previous month’s drop. In contrast, single-family starts fell 4.4% to 883k, marking the lowest level in 11 months. Building permits—a forward-looking indicator—were nearly unchanged, inching up from 1.393 million to 1.397 million. That masked a 3.7% decline in single-family permits, which dropped to 866k, while multifamily permits rose modestly from 444k to 478k. Meanwhile, housing completions fell sharply, down 13.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.314 million. That included a 12.5% decline in single-family completions, which dropped from 1.038 million to 908k.