While stock market volatility may be a drop in the bucket in the bigger picture, earnings season tends to increase volume and liquidity.  This can spill over to the bond market in unpredictable ways, but so far this week, it’s been helpful–especially at the 9:30am NYSE open. A few hours before that, bonds moved into positive territory following a series of comments from Bessent.  Topics included trade negotiations and Fed Chair Powell. Bessent doesn’t see a need to fire Powell, echoing a WSJ report over the weekend to the same effect. If Bessent’s underlying goal is to help yields move lower in order to decrease Treasury’s interest burden, it’s working.

The company has agreed to sell the MSRs on Aug. 1. Its merger with Mechanics Bank is set to close during the third quarter of this year.

Opendoor’s stock price at one point on Monday was at $4.97, more than double its Friday close, but a large drop late in the day left it with a 96 cent gain.

The bill’s sponsors say it can help address widespread problems with housing affordability by allowing homeowners to build accessory dwelling units.

Google, Oliver Wyman and Corridor Platforms offer bankers a safe space where they can experiment with using generative artificial intelligence for customer interactions.

An average of 2.2 issues found in problematic loan files shows existing tools are insufficient to detect vulnerabilities before closing, Fundingshield said

Uneventful Resilience

Monday’s theme for the bond market was one of moderate resilience–at least for the longer-end of the yield curve.  Yields are lower across the board (less so for shorter-term notes like the 2yr) without any headline or data-based motivations. On days like this, motivation is assumed to come from technicals and trading taking place in other markets for other reasons. With earnings season in full swing, it’s no surprise to see 9:30am and 4pm garner most of the days volume and volatility.f

Econ Data / Events

Leading Indicators

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Market Movement Recap

10:35 AM stronger overnight and holding gains so far.  MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 6.3bps at 4.357

02:01 PM still sideways at stronger levels.  MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yur down 5.7bps at 4.363

03:44 PM Off the best levels but still stronger on the day.  MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 5.1bps at 4.369

Mortgage rates didn’t move much on Monday, but they moved in the right direction with the average lender 0.03% lower for a top tier 30yr fixed scenario versus last Friday.  That makes this the 4th straight business day with a modest gain and it gets us back in line with the lowest rates since July 3rd. One fairly consistent theme this week will be the absence of the sort of high-impact economic data that is often responsible for rate volatility. Last week’s key data was the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which pushed rates higher on Tuesday.  There are several economic reports on tap this week, but none of them are on par with CPI, let alone something like next week’s jobs report–arguably the single most important report for rates.

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It seems like only 2 weeks ago (because it was) that we encountered an entire week without any major events on the econ calendar. The present week is not much different. Scheduled speeches from Fed members will not include comment on monetary policy as the Fed is in its blackout period (no monetary policy comments in the 12 days leading up to a Fed announcement). S&P PMI (Thursday) is occasionally worth a reaction, and Jobless Claims only tends to matter when it falls very far from forecasts. It’s against this backdrop that both stocks and bonds are making respectable gains this morning. The absence of specific motivations leaves focus on technicals, with the simplest conclusion being “support at 4.50% in 10yr yields last week.” Technicians that are into that sort of thing are also noting nearness to the 100 day moving average.