Continued jobless claims dropped to the lowest level since October 2024 and bonds are selling off a bit.  Those two things may seem like they’re clearly connected, but the selling didn’t start for another 15 minutes after the data and the most noticeable selling has taken place in the past 15 minutes (almost a full hour after the data). As for a scapegoat for that selling, there’s only conjecture. We can see surging commodities prices coinciding with Treasury sales, but we wouldn’t leap to the assumption that traders are selling bonds to buy commodities.  In any event, the damage is fairly limited in the big picture.  One could simply say this is an ongoing rejection of 10yr yields re-entering the previous trading range. 

The pending agreement would resolve claims over a 2021 hack which affected 5.8 million customers of Lakeview, Community, and Pingora Loan Servicing.

Respondents to an exclusive NMN survey lay odds on lower rates boosting housing despite stagflation and recession risks. Here’s how the Fed’s view compares.

The activist investor is calling on Costar to exit its residential real estate businesses to concentrate on commercial.

Rocket denied the allegations, saying the lawsuit is a retread of a case the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau filed that was quickly dismissed.

Markets are sending mixed signals as the dollar slides, gold surges and Treasuries barely react, a disconnect that could spill into other assets, according to the CEO of IF Securities.

No Surprises From Powell. No Major Movement in Rates

As expected, the Fed held rates steady today. The statement was moderately more hawkish in that it acknowledged progress on the labor market front and overall economy. To the very small extent that the statement was hawkish, Powell’s press conference could be viewed as counterbalancing due to the non-threatening characterization of inflation and ongoing openness to additional easing if conditions justify it.  Bonds are heading out the door almost exactly in line with opening levels and there wasn’t much movement in between.

Market Movement Recap

09:24 AM Just barely stronger overnight and sideways so far this morning. MBS unchanged and 10yr effectively unchanged at 4.248.

12:38 PM MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 1.3bps at 4.259

03:10 PM Limited reaction to Fed.  Gaining some ground as Powell presser continues.  MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr unchanged at 4.246

On some occasions, a rate announcement from the Federal Reserve (even one that results in no change to the Fed Funds Rate) can cause a huge move in mortgage rates. Today was not one of those days, but in its defense, it was never that likely to be. In order for a Fed announcement to have a big impact, it has to surprise the market in some way. A rate cut (or absence thereof) is rarely a surprise these days. Instead, the market is more likely to receive new information via the Fed’s economic projections and the Chair’s press conference. Economic projections come out every other meeting and this wasn’t one of them. So any chance of excitement rested with Powell’s press conference. But Powell stayed perfectly on-script, striking a balance between hope and caution. Financial markets agreed. There was essentially no reaction to any of today’s Fed events in stocks or bonds. Flat bonds = flat mortgage rates all else equal. Today’s average rate was microscopically higher than yesterday’s, but that happened well before the Fed announcement and not for any specific reasons. 

Rates actually declined or remained flat over a two-year period in 15 states, including Florida, with natural disasters and tariffs affecting 2026’s movements.

The Tulsa, Oklahoma-based bank expects the pace of loan growth to quicken this year, driven in part by its nine-month-old warehouse lending business.