Stronger Bonds, Before and After (And Regardless of) Economic Data

Bonds were stronger overnight with 10yr yields hitting roughly 4.25% even before this morning’s economic data came out.  Now at the 3pm CME close, 10yr yields are still at 4.25% and they didn’t stray too far from that midpoint in either direction. Data was neither friendly nor unfriendly and there was certainly no discernible reaction.  We’re left to chalk up the rally to serendipitous, temporary factors such as month-end trading, holiday weekend position squaring, and the proverbial skids being greased by a light liquidity environment.  It was and always will be the plan to basically ignore market movement on Thanksgiving week and tune back in more attentively during jobs report week (i.e. next week).  NOTE: we are not currently planning on scheduled commentary for this Friday’s half day unless something momentous happens.  Bonds will be open until 2pm ET.

Econ Data / Events

GDP

2.8 vs 2.8 f’cast

Jobless Claims

213k vs 216k f’cast

Continued Claims

1.907m vs 1.910m f’cast

Core PCE Q/Q 

2.1 vs 2.2 f’cast, 2.8 prev

Core PCE M/M

0.3 vs  0.3 f’cast, 0.3 prev

Core PCE Y/Y

2.8 vs 2.8 f’cast, 2.7 prev

Market Movement Recap

09:19 AM moderately stronger overnight and no reaction to 8:30AM data.  MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 5.2bps at 4.253

10:14 AM Modest weakness after PCE data.  MBS still up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 3.8bps at 4.268 but up from lows of 4.24

02:31 PM Near the best levels now.  MBS up a quarter point and 10yr down 6.6bps at 4.24

The interest rate market continues the healing process after taking heavy damage in October.  During the course of that month, the average top tier conventional 30yr fixed rate increased more than 0.75% and broke above 7.0% for the first time since early July.  The first few days of November saw some additional volatility with our rate index hitting 7.13% on November 6th. Things have calmed down more and more since then.  While this doesn’t mean there’s been a huge correction back toward lower levels, the absence of additional weakness is nearly as big of a victory as we could have seen.  Today’s installment didn’t bring a huge day-over-day change to mortgage rates, but we were already close enough to the 1-month low that a modest improvement is all it took. Rates take cues from bonds which, in turn, take cues from economic data, among other things. Today was the busiest day of the week for data, but none of it ended up causing a big move in one direction or the other.  Instead, bonds calmly continued toward stronger levels.  Be aware that this sort of movement at this time of the year can be a serendipitous byproduct of market motivations that don’t have anything to do with the typical motivations.  That’s an opaque phrase, to be sure, but a high detail explanation would require a novel, and it would be fairly esoteric to boot.  Suffice it to say that traders have to make certain trades before the end of the month, and most bond traders would consider that to be today.  It shouldn’t necessarily be viewed as an indication of additional positive momentum.

“Rob, my borrowers would be really happy with rates below 7 percent. When will we get there?” A wise economist with the MBA once told me, “If you’re going to give a number, don’t give a date. If you’re going to give a date, don’t give a number.” Probably early next year. If I could predict rates precisely, I’d be writing this from a sleepy village on a beach in Mexico. Depending on where the home is, maybe the focus should be more on obtaining homeowner’s insurance at a reasonable level. Everyone is talking about how delinquencies are following mounting insurance costs! Per HomeLight, nearly half (46 percent) of the people out there say that buyers and sellers are hoping for interest rates to drop to between 5.75 percent to 6.00 percent before they make a move. Homeowners are borrowing nearly 50 percent of their equity for three main reasons: Debt consolidation (88 percent), home renovations (79 percent), and purchasing another property (55 percent). However, homeowners have tapped into equity for some far-fetched reasons, too: loan officers reported clients using their equity to buy a helicopter, cosmetic surgeries, and fund food truck, bouncy house, and sheep herd fire abatement businesses, respectively. Writing a daily Commentary pales in comparison. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by Truework. By connecting every verification method into one platform, Truework helps lenders eliminate process disruptions, maintain a competitive borrower experience, and reduce the fiscal impact of verifying income. Hear an interview with Socotra Capital’s Chris Baumann on hard money lending 101.)

Although this morning contained the week’s most active slate of economic data, it has completely failed to inspire even the most modest of responses in the bond market, both in terms of volume and volatility.  Disclaimer: there is some chance of a reaction to the monthly PCE data which did not come out at 8:30am as it normally would and is instead rescheduled for 10am ET. Bonds were stronger overnight with most of the gains coinciding with the start of the European trading session (weaker data in Europe helping bonds). There’s been no movement so far during domestic hours. Some traders are also pointing to month-end buying as a source of support for bonds over the past 3 days.

U.S. lumber prices, which already have risen in recent months due to lower production in Canada, could see further gains after President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs on trade from north of the border.

Expanded data shows home prices rose over 5% annually at the end of the third quarter, prompting the FHFA to boost mortgage loan limits accordingly.

Southern Trust Mortgage claims its former LO, now employed with Movement, stole thousands of confidential files and its customers.

The median monthly payment amount for new purchases moved higher for the first time in six months, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

New single-family home sales decreased 17% last month to a 610,000 annualized rate, according to government data issued Tuesday.

No Major Data. No Major Drama

While today’s economic calendar was not necessarily “empty,” it may as well have been in terms of market movement potential.  Home prices came in hotter according to FHFA, but bonds never care about home price indices (apart from the housing meltdown, perhaps). Same story for new home sales which tanked due to Hurricane Milton. Consumer confidence and the 5yr auction were right in line with expectations, thus leaving only the Fed Minutes at 2pm.  The Fed couldn’t possibly have said anything interesting 3 weeks ago that we haven’t already heard several of them say in the past 3 weeks.  Therefore, it was never likely to inspire bond market movement. We’re left with a modest correction to yesterday’s rally and a day of mostly flat trading into the 3pm CME close.  Wednesday could be a bit jumpier depending on the data and month-end trading uncertainty. 

Econ Data / Events

FHFA Home Prices

0.7 vs 0.3 f’cast, 0.4 prev

Case Shiller Home Prices

-0.3 vs -0.3 prev

Annual Case Shiller Prices

4.6 vs 4.8 f’cast, 5.2 prev

Annual FHFA Home Prices

4.4 vs 4.4 prev

New Home Sales

610k vs 730k f’cast

Consumer Confidence

111.7 vs 111.3 f’cast

Market Movement Recap

09:12 AM Bonds drift sideways to slightly weaker overnight.  MBS down only 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 2.2 bps at 4.296

10:25 AM Off the AM highs with MBS now down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr yields up 4.4bps at 4.319

01:03 PM Ho hum 5yr auction. Bonds little changed ad modestly weaker levels.  MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr up 3.1bps at 4.307

02:05 PM No response to Fed minutes and no change to levels from the last update