2025 is effectively over when it comes to meaningful shifts in the bond market. The coming days will be so heavily-affected by light volume/liquidity that any apparently significant shifts would be taken with a grain of salt anyway. Even as we look back over the past 4 months, we see a persistence of the very narrow 4.00-4.20 range in 10yr yields. The past 3 weeks have been especially narrow.

 While the recent micro range in 10s is on the high side of the broader range, this has more to do with shifts in the yield curve. For instance, 2yr yields are hugging the lower end of their 4-month range.

MBS and mortgage rates are somewhere in between, which is why they’ve been outperforming 10yr yields relative to the highs/lows of their respective ranges.

The Massachusetts Democrat requested to see records related to second liens that banks were required to expunge per terms of the 2012 mortgage settlement.

Existing-home sales in the US barely rose in November, as a recent moderation in price growth and mortgage rates motivated buyers at the margin.

More than 80% of mortgage brokers expect business to grow in 2026, mainly through the strengthening of referral networks and the expansion of non-QM offerings.

The move formalizes acting leadership roles both have had in different segments of the government-backed mortgage market serving many first-time homebuyers.

Monthly excess spread will confer credit enhancement to the notes, KBRA said, and while it will be released it will not be available as credit enhancement in future payment periods.

Bond Market in Holiday Mode

Holiday mode is impossible to clearly define when it comes to its impact on the bond market. We know it when we see it, and we saw it today. Bonds paid no attention to econ data no matter how much it may seem that the 10am Consumer Sentiment numbers had an impact. Movement was minimal and not visibly tied to any other motivation. And as we already discussed this morning, Japan’s rate hike was a non-event. Holiday trading randomness will get worse over the next 2 weeks before it improves in early January.

Econ Data / Events

Consumer Sentiment (Dec)

52.9 vs 53.4 f’cast, 51.0 prev

Existing home sales (Nov)

4.13M vs 4.2M f’cast, 4.1M prev

Sentiment: 1y Inflation (Dec)

4.2% vs 4.1% f’cast, 4.5% prev

Sentiment: 5y Inflation (Dec)

3.2% vs 3.2% f’cast, 3.4% prev

U Mich conditions (Dec)

50.4 vs 50.7 f’cast, 51.1 prev

Market Movement Recap

10:12 AM Sideways at modestly weaker levels. MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 2.1bps at 4.143

12:15 PM Decent recovery into 11am, but fading a bit now.  MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 01yr up 2.7bps at 4.148

It ended up being a fairly uneventful day for mortgage rates despite scattered speculation about the impact of foreign monetary policy decisions. The average lender nudged just a hair higher, resulting in the 2nd lowest reading of the week. Apart from yesterday, the last day with lower rates was more than 2 weeks ago on December 4th. The coming week will be heavily affected by the realities of the holiday trading environment. There’s no repeatable formula for this. We simply widen the range of potential rate movement that occurs for no apparent reason. Most of the time, rates simple drift aimlessly sideways, but on certain years, there are  inexplicable jumps/dips. We won’t have a solid sense of where the rate market wants to be until the important economic reports start coming out in January.

Existing-home sales extended their recent stabilization in November, rising 0.5% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.13 million , according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). This is the 3rd straight increase and annualized sales are at their highest level in 8 months. The catch is that–much like several other housing metrics–Existing Sales have been stuck in the lowest of gears since late 2022. As long as we continue to operate in this range, it’s difficult to draw any conclusions about bigger picture momentum. “Existing-home sales increased for the third straight month due to lower mortgage rates this autumn,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “However, inventory growth is beginning to stall. With distressed property sales at historic lows and housing wealth at an all-time high, homeowners are in no rush to list their properties during the winter months.” Regional Breakdown (Sales and Prices, November 2025)

Region
Sales (annual rate)
MoM Change
Median Price
YoY Change

Northeast
510k
+4.1%
$480,800
+1.1%

Midwest
970k
-2.0%
$319,400
+5.8%

South
1.89m
+1.1%
$361,000
+0.8%

West
760k
0.0%
$618,900
-0.9%

The December National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) edged up one point to 39. This is the 3rd straight month of improvement in the index–a development that could be confused for something encouraging.  But the reality is that builder confidence is merely drifting along just barely above the lowest levels in more than a decade. This has been the case for more than 3 years now. Peeling back the layers shows familiar constraints, even if the numbers shuffled slightly. The index measuring current sales conditions rose one point to 42, while the gauge tracking prospective buyer traffic held steady at 26—still firmly in “low to very low” territory. Future sales expectations improved one point to 52, extending a three-month stretch above breakeven. “Market conditions remain challenging with two-thirds of builders reporting they are offering incentives to move buyers off the fence,” said NAHB Chairman Buddy Hughes. “Meanwhile, builders are contending with rising material and labor prices, as tariffs are having serious repercussions on construction costs.” Pricing pressure continues to do much of the heavy lifting. NAHB reports that 40% of builders cut home prices in December, marking the second consecutive month at or above that level. The average price reduction eased to 5%, down from 6% in November, while the use of sales incentives climbed to 67%—the highest share in the post-Covid period. Regionally, the three-month moving averages show a broad-based but still uneven improvement. The Northeast slipped to 47, while the Midwest strengthened to 43. The South rose to 36 and the West improved to 34, though both regions remain more acutely exposed to affordability pressures.