The new week is less interesting than the previous week in terms of scheduled events with the only top tier data being Tuesday’s ISM Non Manufacturing PMI. In addition, the Treasury auction cycle may be a bit more interesting than normal in light of the recent rally and last week’s quarterly refunding details (not because the details were surprising, but because they eliminated uncertainty). After a big post-NFP rally, the following Monday is always a bit of a barometer as to the market’s level of comfort in the newfound range. In that sense, we’re learning one–possibly two things this morning. On a positive note, the ground holding in bonds tells us there are no major regrets.  On a cautious note, the absence of additional gains means we need to keep an eye on the 4.20 technical level (July 1st lows) for potential resistance.

The 35% levy on Canadian goods does not include any carve outs for lumber or building supplies, with their costs already rising, Cotality’s Selma Hepp said.

The Senate bill would make forbearance available to homeowners directly impacted by extreme-weather events, including 2025 California wildfire victims.

Companies that lack artificial intelligence governance may spend hundreds of thousands of dollars more in responding to cyberattacks, IBM found.

Employment came in below estimates, which some economists expect could move the bond market in ways that affect loan costs even before the Fed meets next.

The decision to rejoin the CEO and chairman roles comes roughly two months after regulators removed an asset cap that had stunted the San Francisco-based company’s growth for seven years.

Bond Traders Quickly Revise Their Bullishness

“Revision” is the word of the day as every armchair economist struggles to understand how the NFP revisions could be so big.  Given that it’s not 2020 or 2021, today’s revisions were indeed on the large side (those years were MUCH larger… 2021’s average NFP revisions was 159k). It speaks to a marked deterioration in the labor market or some limitation in BLS manpower/funding or methodology. Either way, markets traded it in a massive way.  2yr yields (more closely linked to Fed Funds Rate expectations) fell almost 30bps! Mortgage rates are back to mid October levels. 

Market Movement Recap

08:56 AM Massive rally after NFP.  MBS up half a point.  10yr down 10.6bps at 4.265

12:21 PM Rally continues.  MBS up 18 ticks (.56) and 10yr down 13.4bps at 4.237

05:05 PM Stunning near-30bp rally in 2yr yields.  10yr down 15bps at 4.22 and MBS up nearly 3/4th of a point.

Every month, we offer the same old warning/reminder ahead of the big jobs report–something to the effect of “no other economic report has as much power to cause volatility in rates, for better or worse.”  Days like today are the reason for that reminder. Thankfully, it was the “better” end of the spectrum. Rates tend to improve when economic data is weaker than expected. Today’s jobs report was only moderately weaker at the headline level (73k vs 110k forecast), but it was the revisions to the past months that really got the market’s attention.  Those revisions removed 253k jobs from the initially reported numbers. Revisions are a fact of life for the jobs report.  The BLS publishes them in detail: https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesnaicsrev.htm This is a tough concept for folks outside the world of large scale data collection and statistics to understand, but the important point is that revisions happen because BLS does not or cannot receive complete data from employers in just one month.  As more responses come in, the data is revised.  The market is well aware of this methodology and traders are free to choose to react to a potentially less complete picture on month 1 or the final picture on month 3.  These particular revisions happened to a fair bit larger than the typical revision. That was important to different people for different reasons.  When it comes to financial markets and the traders that trade the bonds that move mortgage rates, it was only important because it meant the labor market is in weaker shape than previously thought–a good reason to push rates quickly lower today. (Incidentally, many other economic reports suggested weaker labor market conditions last month and the jobs report bucked that trend by coming in higher.  In other words, it is now more aligned with what the other data has been indicating.)

Mortgage application activity fell last week, reversing prior momentum and highlighting continued softness in both purchase and refinance demand. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey showed a 3.8% decline in the seasonally adjusted Composite Index for the week ending July 25, 2025. “Mortgage applications fell to their lowest level since May, with both purchase and refinance activity declining over the week,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “The 30‑year fixed rate was little changed at 6.83%, but high enough to deter refinancing, pushing the refinance index lower for the third straight week. Purchase applications decreased by almost 6 percent, as conventional, FHA, and VA purchase loans declined despite slowing home‑price growth and rising inventory.” The Refinance Index dropped 1% week‑over‑week, though it remains about 30% above last year’s level. The Purchase Index posted a 6% weekly decrease, but still sits roughly 17% higher than the same week in 2024. Purchase applications declined across the board, while refinance activity also softened. The 30‑year fixed rate held steady at 6.83% after a slight drop from the week prior. Mortgage Rate Summary:
30yr Fixed: 6.83% (from 6.84%) | Points: 0.60 (down from 0.62)
15yr Fixed: 6.12% (down from 6.14%) | Points: 0.64 (down from 0.69)
Jumbo 30yr: 6.74% (down from 6.75%) | Points: 0.51 (down from 0.70)
FHA: 6.56% (up from 6.52%) | Points: 0.83 (up from 0.79)
5/1 ARM: 6.22% (up from 6.01%) | Points: 0.51 (up from 0.28)

The National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)—which tracks contract signings on existing homes—has remained rangebound for more than two years, constrained by affordability pressures and elevated mortgage rates. This week’s release showed a decline after last month’s modest gain, reflecting persistent market softening. Pending home sales fell by 0.8% in June, following May’s 1.8% rise. The index is now 2.8% lower than a year ago , but remains far below pre‑2022 levels. Zooming out, contract activity remains stuck in a narrow band. The index hasn’t topped 80 since the summer of 2022, indicating a sluggish, rate‑constrained housing market. “The data shows a continuation of small declines in contract signings despite inventory in the market increasing,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. The drop in June extends weakness even as more homes come online. Regional Breakdown (Month‑Over‑Month)
Northeast: +2.1%
Midwest: −0.8%
South: −0.7%
West: −3.9%
Regional YoY Change
Northeast: 0.0% (flat)
Midwest: −0.9%
South: −2.9%
West: −7.3%
All regions except the Northeast posted declines month-over-month. Year-over-year, only the Northeast remains unchanged. The West saw the steepest annual drop at −7.3%.