Mortgage rates ended last week at the lowest levels since April 7th.  The average lender remained at those same levels at the start of business today, but many lenders offered modest improvements as the day progressed. Mortgage lenders prefer to update rates only once per day, but they will make mid-day adjustments if the underlying bond market moves enough.  Fortunately, today’s adjustments were toward slightly lower levels. That said, the changes were small enough that the average borrower may not notice any difference versus Friday’s rate quotes. As the week continues, there will be more and more scheduled events with the power to cause intraday volatility and even to impact the longer-term trend. As for that trend, it is arguably flat at the moment after experiencing significant volatility for most of the month of April. 

When getting a sense of what’s happening in the bond market, it’s frequently safe to ignore the last 2 hours of trading on Friday and the first 2 on Monday. When that logic is applied today, we found this morning’s 10am yields precisely in line with Friday’s 3pm levels and MBS doing just a bit better. There was just a bit of additional improvement after the Dallas Fed Survey.

This is the only day of the week without any major data or calendar event in the morning hours. Broader market focus remains on equities and earnings season, but Treasuries get quarterly refunding estimates at 3pm–something that can occasionally have a very noticeable impact.

In its latest financial stability report, the Federal Reserve found that asset prices continue to exceed underlying fundamentals and leverage levels remain high, especially by hedge funds.

The Long Island-based regional bank, which reported another quarterly loss Friday, continues to hire in the commercial-and-industrial lending sphere as it seeks to diversify its commercial real estate-heavy business.

The lender’s parent also said it is actively in preparation to move forward on plans to unlock equity value in 2025, with a Newrez spinoff among its options.

Doug Duncan may be retired from Fannie Mae, but not from the housing market—his new firm is ramping up with writing, speaking, and advisory work.

The way mortgage firms address distressed military borrowers will become less regimented as the Veterans Affairs Servicing Purchase program gets phased out.

Eerily Calm and Strong For 2nd Straight Day

After being heavily conditioned to expect elevated volatility with unpredictable timing, the past two trading sessions have been tremendous departures from the norm. Both days featured linear, reasonably big  improvements without any singular flashpoints that deserve any more credit than a general sense of cooler heads prevailing on the policy-making front. Indeed, when the week ends with Trump saying “we will be reasonable on tariffs” as opposed to doubling down on triple digit brinksmanship, something has certainly changed and both sides of the market are looking relieved. 

Econ Data / Events

Consumer Sentiment (revision/final)

52.2 vs 50.8 f’cast
1yr inflation 6.5 vs 6.7 f’cast
5yr inflation 4.4 vs 4.4 f’cast

Market Movement Recap

09:58 AM Modestly stronger overnight and mostly holding gains so far.  MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 3.8bps at 4.284

02:19 PM Additional gains and near best levels.  MBS up a quarter point and 10yr down 5.6bps at 4.265

04:51 PM Heading out at best levels, MBS up 3/8ths and 10yr down 7bps at 4.25. 

The news on mortgage rates has been frustratingly mixed recently, depending on the source. This is a factor of the various time frames and methodologies employed by different purveyors of rate data. If you’re reading this, however, none of that matters because the following is as timely as it gets: the average mortgage lender is now at the lowest level since April 7th. Improvements versus yesterday vary depending on the lender.  Some of them made friendly adjustments yesterday afternoon in response to stronger trading in the bond market. Others waited to make those adjustments until this morning.   In the bigger picture, rates are still slightly elevated compared to their recent stint calmly holding the lowest levels since December. But they’re not looking nearly as panicked as they did in the week following the big tariff announcements earlier this month.  The coming week brings an active slate of economic data and events with the power to whip up some additional volatility. As always, we can only know about the potential for volatility. The actual direction and magnitude of rate movement will depend on the outcome of the economic reports as well as any other relevant headlines that emerge throughout the week.

As is the case for the monthly data on New Home Sales from the Census Bureau, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) Existing Home Sales report does not make for exciting news these days. It’s not that the news is tragic or alarming either.  It just sort of… is. Whereas New Home Sales have been able to hold sideways near their pre-covid highs, Existing Sales continue to languish near the lowest levels in decades.  Apart from the great financial crisis in 2008-2010, you’d have to go back to 1995 to see lower levels. “Home buying and selling remained sluggish in March due to the affordability challenges associated with high mortgage rates,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Residential housing mobility, currently at historical lows, signals the troublesome possibility of less economic mobility for society.”