A regulator has circulated an ideal picture of a public GSE offering from President Trump’s social media. Here’s what analysts think the reality would be.

Bonds Mostly Steady Ahead of CPI

Treasuries outperformed MBS just slightly today, but both were close enough to unchanged to argue against any excess analytical effort. In general, bonds took their last major cue from the jobs report earlier in the month and have been mostly sideways since then. That brings us to Tuesday morning’s CPI which is the only true top tier data of the week and the only report that can occasionally hold a candle to the jobs report in terms of volatility potential.  As with last month, the headline numbers don’t necessarily tell the story. Traders will quickly be looking to sort out tariff-impacted categories from the rest of the data.

Market Movement Recap

09:32 AM Sideways to slightly stronger overnight.  MBS unchanged and 10yr down 0.6bps at 4.276

12:25 PM strongest levels in 10yr, down 2.1bps at 4.261.  MBS unchanged.

02:17 PM bouncing back a bit now.  MBS down 1 tick (0.03) and 10yr down 1bp at 4.272

The average top tier 30yr fixed rate held exceptionally steady last week after moving just a bit lower over the weekend. By comparison, today’s rates are much closer to Friday’s latest levels and still very close to the lowest we’ve seen since October, 2024.  If the two key economic considerations for interest rates are jobs and inflation, the two key economic reports are the jobs report seen earlier this month and the Consumer Price Index which comes out tomorrow morning. It’s often repeated that the PCE Price Index is a preferable gauge of inflation, but CPI comes out 2 weeks earlier and thus gets most of the market’s attention. Just like last month, market participants are watching to see the extent of tariff-driven inflation in tomorrow’s data.  If it contributes to a higher-than-expected result, we’ll likely see some upward pressure on rates.   Notably, traders are already expecting an increase over last month, so it won’t be “news” to interest rates if inflation is merely higher (the expectation is baked-in to current levels).  Bottom line, volatility potential is higher tomorrow morning due to the inflation data and there’s no way to know if it will help or hurt until the market is already reacting. 

About 25 miles to the north of the California MBA’s Western Secondary, a mobile robotic microfactory is building fire-resistant homes in Palisades Fire burn zone. The repercussions of disasters is certainly a topic here in the hallways here at the conference, along with the eventual fate of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae (which may include merging them… follow the money: both have enormous backing from hedge fund investors, so much of the proceeds of a stock offering would go to wealthy financial backers, not taxpayers). Tech is also always a topic… AI in the capital markets? Yup: Sun West Mortgage Company, Inc. (SWM) and its affiliate Celligence International, LLC, creators of the advanced AngelAi technology, set up Sun West Investments Trust (SWIT) and a strategic expansion of AI-powered mortgage-backed assets into international markets, beginning with Japan. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by ICE. By seamlessly integrating best-in-class solutions, ICE optimizes every stage of the loan life cycle, setting the standard for innovation, artificial intelligence, efficiency, and scalability, and defining the future of homeownership. Today’s has an interview with Better.com’s Kevin Ryan on how companies are driving growth and operational momentum through AI adoption, channel expansion, and fintech product innovation.) Products, Services, and Software for Lenders and Brokers On today’s episode of Now Next Later at 10am PT, Sasha and Jeremy are joined by Christy Soukhamneut, Chief Lending Officer at UFCU, for a conversation about the shifting credit landscape. They explore how lending strategies are evolving, what’s driving credit modernization, and what financial institutions can do to stay competitive.

July represents the core of the summertime lull in financial markets.  June and August are typically part of the lull unless econ data is suggesting an imminent shift in Fed policy.  This is so well understood that back in May 2013, Kevin Brady famously asked Ben Bernanke if QE tapering could start before Labor Day. It was an odd question to anyone who didn’t understand just how tuned out politicians and market participants can be during these months. Data-free Monday mornings during these months aren’t necessarily forbidden from showing some volatility, but a flat trajectory is the least surprising thing to see at the start of the week. Yields have been orbiting 4.34% in an increasingly narrow range.  This is good perspective considering the last 2 jobs reports seemed like “big deals” relatively, but actually fit inside this consolidation pattern.

Tomorrow could be a different story due to the CPI release–one of the only economic reports that can overcome the sideways summertime momentum.

The settlement resolves legacy allegations the state attorney general made about how the company handled mortgages before changing its role.

Throughout Kolyer’s career he innovated securitization structures with commercial real estate and residential mortgages, commercial and consumer receivables.

The tax delinquency rate hit a seven-year high last year with residents of some states seeing amounts owed increasing by more than 50% since 2019.

The correspondent giant, whose earnings have trended positively in recent quarters despite market headwinds, has made several debt moves this year.

Blend Labs had 23 new or expanded relationships in the fiscal period, double that of the first quarter, including 18 related to consumer banking or home equity.