People gearing up for the Western Secondary in Southern California see that “technology” is on the agenda. (Of course, it is always on every agenda, right?) Is the making of baby carrots considered “technology”? When Google tells you that part of its sales business was hacked, do you even care? On Monday, Jessica Evett, SVP of Product Strategy and Technology Ops, CloudVirga, discussing how to think about what point of sale means now? Where is the data we need and how do we collect and verify it for approval? Embalmers don’t read this Commentary, nor do they use a lot of technology: Embalmers are on this list of jobs least likely to be affected by AI. (Remember the source.) There’s also a list of jobs in that link likely to be most affected by AI. Ugh. Do you need digital project intelligence, helping your forecast your, and your company’s, business? There’s Shilo AI; “the innovative force in real estate technology” that just raised $2.6 million in its latest funding round. Don’t forget: Never take meeting notes again. Get transcripts, automated summaries, action items, and chat with Otter.AI to get answers from your meetings. (Today’s podcast can be found here and Sponsored by Total Expert, the purpose-built customer engagement platform trusted by hundreds of modern financial institutions. Total Expert turns customer data into actionable insights that help lenders engage and guide consumers through complex financial decisions. Hear an interview with Ardley’s Nathan Den Herder and Taylor Potter on borrower behavior and loan data from portfolios in the second quarter.)

Any week in early August (before anyone is back to school yet) classifies a “dog days of summer” type of week for the bond market. Movement is more random. Ranges are narrower. And major technical levels are rarely challenged in a significant way. Think of the present week like this. Last Friday saw 10yr yields drop from 4.4 to 4.2.  Junior traders could be left with the instruction to sell 4.2 and buy 4.25 in the following week. That’s what we saw Monday through Thursday. Now today, yields are creeping up just a bit more amid light volume and light liquidity. 

It’s not a move that we’d read too much into. In fact, 4.28 had been the only major technical level overhead after bouncing at 4.19 on Mon/Tue.  We won’t get a good idea of the current state of bond market momentum until next Tuesday’s CPI.  Bottom line: incidental and inconsequential weakness so far this morning, but still squarely in “victory” territory as far as the past 3 months are concerned.

A credit analyst manually reviews the pool’s underwriting decisions, instead of just leaving it all to automated underwriting methods.

The lender and servicer, which posted stronger originations, suggested more efficient production with improvements including renegotiated vendor contracts.

Both originations and servicing segments contributed to the second-quarter’s positive numbers, with production up by over 14% year over year.

President Trump said Thursday that he will nominate Stephen Miran, who currently serves as chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, as the next member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Miran is a key architect of President Donald Trump’s tariff policy.

President Trump’s imposition of sweeping tariffs on more than 90 countries Thursday represents a major shift in the U.S. trade stance, but the impact on inflation, the Federal Reserve and the economy are still unclear.

Fairly Resilient Despite Bumpy Auction

The relevant morning econ data was limited to Jobless Claims. While the weekly and continuing numbers were both higher than expected, it wasn’t a big enough miss to spark any sort of decisive rally in bonds. MBS lost ground heading into the PM hours and lost some more ground after a poorly received 30yr bond auction. But whereas the auction could have been used as a front for additional selling, bonds generally did a decent job of holding their ground in the last few hours of the day. Friday’s calendar is empty. This doesn’t mean we won’t see any volatility–simply that it could not be driven by scheduled events.

Econ Data / Events

Jobless Claims

226k vs 221k f’cast, 219k prev

Continuing Claims

1974k vs 1950k f’cast, 1936k prev

Market Movement Recap

08:31 AM ho-hum Jobless Claims.  No reaction.  10yr up 0.3bps at 4.231 MBS up 1 tick (.03)

11:55 AM Still flat.  MBS unchanged and 10yr unchanged at 4.227

01:06 PM weaker after 30yr auction.  MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 1.7bps at 4.245

02:55 PM avoiding sharper losses.  MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 1.5bps at 4.243

Mortgage rates have barely budged after Monday with the day-over-day change failing to exceed 0.02% on any given day. But today’s budging happened to bring the average 30yr fixed rate to another 10-month low.  Lenders are in the mid 6% range for top tier scenarios. Economic data is one of the common influences for the bonds that underly rate movement. Today’s only somewhat significant report was the weekly jobless claims data.  It would have needed to fall very far from forecasts in order to have a big impact. While it was higher than expected, the “miss” was too small to matter. Today’s improvement has more to do with yesterday’s late day gains in the bond market. Today’s trading has erased those gains, but the market hasn’t moved enough for most lenders to go to the trouble of changing their rates. The implication is that tomorrow morning’s rates would be just a hair higher if the bond market held perfectly steady overnight.

We’re back traveling and packing for the plethora of conferences. Packing and intellect sometimes collide: for the life of me, I can’t seem to grasp this simple video on the moves of how to fold a t-shirt in under two seconds. (It is worth waiting out the ad; show it to your kids.) The Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates, but the markets seem focused on its every move and opinion since its mandate of maximum employment, price stability, and steady inflation is always precarious. The Fed is often a topic on The Big Picture, but this week Katie Sweeney, EVP of Broker Strategy and Advocacy at Rocket Mortgage, is on to discuss the moves on the trigger leads bill with its implications… a big win for the MBA and our biz. Speaking of that organization, the MBA’s Marina Walsh, CMB, reminded me of a its just-released home equity lending study that should be of interest to any originator or company who wants to understand that market and borrower, and how to tap into that business. (Today’s podcast can be found here and Sponsored by Total Expert, the purpose-built customer engagement platform trusted by hundreds of modern financial institutions. Total Expert turns customer data into actionable insights that help lenders engage and guide consumers through complex financial decisions. Hear an interview with BeSmartee’s Tim Nguyen on why modern mortgage lenders need configurable POS solutions that are fast, flexible, and built to adapt in any market.) Products, Services, and Software for Lenders and Brokers