About 25 miles to the north of the California MBA’s Western Secondary, a mobile robotic microfactory is building fire-resistant homes in Palisades Fire burn zone. The repercussions of disasters is certainly a topic here in the hallways here at the conference, along with the eventual fate of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae (which may include merging them… follow the money: both have enormous backing from hedge fund investors, so much of the proceeds of a stock offering would go to wealthy financial backers, not taxpayers). Tech is also always a topic… AI in the capital markets? Yup: Sun West Mortgage Company, Inc. (SWM) and its affiliate Celligence International, LLC, creators of the advanced AngelAi technology, set up Sun West Investments Trust (SWIT) and a strategic expansion of AI-powered mortgage-backed assets into international markets, beginning with Japan. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by ICE. By seamlessly integrating best-in-class solutions, ICE optimizes every stage of the loan life cycle, setting the standard for innovation, artificial intelligence, efficiency, and scalability, and defining the future of homeownership. Today’s has an interview with Better.com’s Kevin Ryan on how companies are driving growth and operational momentum through AI adoption, channel expansion, and fintech product innovation.) Products, Services, and Software for Lenders and Brokers On today’s episode of Now Next Later at 10am PT, Sasha and Jeremy are joined by Christy Soukhamneut, Chief Lending Officer at UFCU, for a conversation about the shifting credit landscape. They explore how lending strategies are evolving, what’s driving credit modernization, and what financial institutions can do to stay competitive.

July represents the core of the summertime lull in financial markets.  June and August are typically part of the lull unless econ data is suggesting an imminent shift in Fed policy.  This is so well understood that back in May 2013, Kevin Brady famously asked Ben Bernanke if QE tapering could start before Labor Day. It was an odd question to anyone who didn’t understand just how tuned out politicians and market participants can be during these months. Data-free Monday mornings during these months aren’t necessarily forbidden from showing some volatility, but a flat trajectory is the least surprising thing to see at the start of the week. Yields have been orbiting 4.34% in an increasingly narrow range.  This is good perspective considering the last 2 jobs reports seemed like “big deals” relatively, but actually fit inside this consolidation pattern.

Tomorrow could be a different story due to the CPI release–one of the only economic reports that can overcome the sideways summertime momentum.

The settlement resolves legacy allegations the state attorney general made about how the company handled mortgages before changing its role.

Throughout Kolyer’s career he innovated securitization structures with commercial real estate and residential mortgages, commercial and consumer receivables.

The tax delinquency rate hit a seven-year high last year with residents of some states seeing amounts owed increasing by more than 50% since 2019.

The correspondent giant, whose earnings have trended positively in recent quarters despite market headwinds, has made several debt moves this year.

Blend Labs had 23 new or expanded relationships in the fiscal period, double that of the first quarter, including 18 related to consumer banking or home equity.

Focus Shifts to Next Week’s High Stakes CPI

Bonds lost ground at the fastest pace of the week on Friday, but even that ended up being insignificant in the bigger picture. The bottom line is that this week’s trading helped solidify and consolidate the gains seen after last week’s jobs report. With nothing of note on tap today, focus quickly shifted to the risks/opportunities inherent in next Tuesday’s CPI report–one of two key players when it comes to determining the next big move for rates (the other being the next jobs report in early September). Higher inflation would suggest bonds erase more of their post-NFP gains whereas lower inflation would argue for another challenge to the 10yr technical floor at 4.20%. 

Econ Data / Events

Jobless Claims

226k vs 221k f’cast, 219k prev

Continuing Claims

1974k vs 1950k f’cast, 1936k prev

Market Movement Recap

10:11 AM Losing ground fairly steadily this morning.  MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 2bps at 4.275

01:01 PM Flat after initial selling.  MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 2.9bps at 4.284

03:24 PM Treasuries heading out at weakest levels with 10yr up 3.1bps at 4.286.  MBS still steady with a 3 tick (.09) loss.

Mortgage rates finally moved in a slightly more noticeable direction today, but the change was still inconsequential in the bigger picture. The average 30yr fixed rate in our index edged up a mere 2 hundredths of a percent from 6.55% to 6.57%, exactly matching the levels seen on August 6th. This leaves rates in the same low range they’ve occupied all week. This week’s stability follows last Friday’s jobs report, which pushed bond yields—and by extension, rates—sharply lower. Since then, daily market movements have been too small to force meaningful lender changes. Even with today’s tiny bump, top tier scenarios remain in the mid-6% range. Next week brings far greater potential for movement. Tuesday’s Consumer Price Index will provide a critical update on inflation and may shed more light on how recent tariff changes are impacting prices. Several Federal Reserve officials are also scheduled to speak, offering an opportunity to gauge whether last week’s weaker jobs data has shifted their willingness to cut rates. Between these two factors, the calm we’ve seen this week could give way to a much more volatile landscape in the days ahead.

Mortgage application activity rebounded last week as falling rates boosted both purchase and refinance demand. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly survey for the week ending August 1, 2025, showed a 3.1% increase in the seasonally adjusted Composite Index from the prior week. “Mortgage rates moved lower last week, following declining Treasury yields as economic data releases signaled a weakening U.S. economy,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “As a result, the 30-year fixed rate decreased for the third straight week to 6.77%, and applications for both purchase and refinance increased.” The Refinance Index rose 5% week-over-week and is 18% higher than the same week in 2024. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 2% (unadjusted up 1%) and is also 18% above year-ago levels. The refinance share of total mortgage applications increased to 41.5% from 40.7% the previous week.  It’s now at its highest level since April. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share rose to 8.5%. FHA share edged down to 18.5% from 18.8%, while VA share increased to 13.3% from 12.2%. Mortgage Rate Summary:
30yr Fixed: 6.77% (from 6.83%) | Points: 0.59 (from 0.60)
15yr Fixed: 6.03% (from 6.12%) | Points: 0.66 (from 0.64)
Jumbo 30yr: 6.65% (from 6.74%) | Points: 0.59 (from 0.51)
FHA: 6.47% (from 6.56%) | Points: 0.81 (from 0.83)
5/1 ARM: 6.06% (from 6.22%) | Points: 0.49 (from 0.51)