Existing-home sales posted a notable year-end rebound in December, jumping 5.1% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.35 million , according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). After adjusting for seasonal factors, December sales were the strongest in nearly three years, marking a broad-based improvement across all four regions. “2025 was another tough year for homebuyers, marked by record-high home prices and historically low home sales,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “However, in the fourth quarter, conditions began improving, with lower mortgage rates and slower home price growth. December home sales, after adjusting for seasonal factors, were the strongest in nearly three years. The gains were broad-based, with all four major regions improving from the prior month.” Inventory tightened sharply during the month, reflecting typical winter seasonality. Total housing inventory fell to 1.18 million units , down 18.1% from November, though still 3.5% higher than a year ago. The months’ supply of unsold homes dropped to 3.3 months , down from 4.2 months in November. “Inventory levels remain tight,” Yun added. “With fewer sellers feeling eager to move, homeowners are taking their time deciding when to list or delist their homes. Similar to past years, more inventory is expected to come to market beginning in February.” Regional Breakdown (Sales and Prices, December 2025)

As we reported last week, the announcement that Fannie and Freddie would buy $200bln in mortgage-backed securities led to a precipitous drop in rates last week. For most of Friday, the top tier 30yr fixed rate was at 5.99% for the average lender according to MND’s daily mortgage rate index–the lowest in roughly 3 years.  And that single day of ridiculously low rates was enough to visibly juice application activity. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 28.5% jump in applications for the week ending January 9th. One small caveat: the prior week’s data included an adjustment for the New Year’s Day holiday, exaggerating the contrast, but the underlying rebound was nonetheless substantial. The Refinance Index surged 40% from the previous week and was 128% higher than the same week one year ago, marking the strongest weekly pace since October.  Purchase activity also strengthened meaningfully. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index rose 16% week-over-week, while unadjusted purchase applications jumped 51% and remained 13% above last year’s level, signaling continued buyer engagement as rates moved lower. “Mortgage rates dropped lower last week following the announcement of increased MBS purchases by the GSEs. Lower rates, including the 30-year fixed rate declining to 6.18 percent, sparked an increase in refinance applications,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Compared to a holiday-adjusted week, refinance applications surged 40 percent to the strongest weekly pace since October 2025. The average loan size for refinance applications was also higher, as borrowers with larger loan sizes are typically more sensitive to changes in rates.”

In our world, no one expects lender and/or vendor mergers and acquisitions to diminish in 2026, and in today’s Mortgage Matters at 2PM ET, presented by Lenders One, Garth Graham, Senior Partner at STRATMOR Group, will break down key M&A trends, recap the pivotal developments of 2025, and share insights on what lenders can expect in 2026. (Garth leads the firm’s M&A practice and advises many of the industry’s top independent and bank-owned mortgage lenders.) We’ve all seen the M&A that is going on in banks. Cashless banks? People get confused and society is going to the dogs when it’s full of caffeine-free coffee, gluten-free bread, and alcohol-free beer. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by Figure. Take advantage of Figure’s technology and products like its fixed HELOC, DSCR loan, piggyback loan, and direct debt paydown, helping you serve more of your existing network and expand into new markets. Hear an interview with Key Mortgage Services’ Jen Poniatowski on how lenders should adjust borrower expectations in a falling rate environment, buyer leverage is shifting as inventory rises, and economic uncertainty is shaping first-time buyer confidence and product choice.) Products, Services, and Software for Brokers and Lenders It’s 2026, and AI is expected to undergo rapid evolution this year. That’s why lenders should gear up for the new year with tools that will evolve too. Floify’s Dynamic AI brings next-generation intelligence directly into your POS, functioning as a skilled digital assistant that manages document recognition, data cleanup, extraction, and automatic verification. Borrowers upload a document once (such as a paystub or W-2) and see verified data flow through their application without repeated steps or frustrating password resets, resulting in a smoother path to pre-approval. Lenders get cleaner files, fewer abandoned applications, and lower processing costs. And because Dynamic AI is embedded inside Floify’s platform, you gain all the benefits of advanced AI without adding new systems or rebuilding workflows. Yes, AI will move fast during 2026, but with Dynamic AI you’ll be ready to keep pace. Experience tomorrow’s workflow: request a future-ready demo.

Total lock volume increased 2% from November and finished 30% higher than last December, according to Optimal Blue’s latest Market Advantage report.

Kelman chose to step down from the company, which he had spent 20 years running, a week before its second phase of integration with Rocket.

The bank did $16 billion of originations during the final three months of 2025, with the quarter-to-quarter increase beating industry-wide growth forecasts.

“These changes reflect adjustments we’re making to ensure our staffing levels, locations and expertise align with current business needs; efficiencies we have gained through technology; and progress against our transformation work,” the company said in a statement.

President Trump Tuesday told reporters he would not delay announcing his pick to fill a new vacancy on the Federal Reserve Board despite threats from Republican Senators to block any Fed nomination until a recently-disclosed Justice Department investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell is resolved.

CPI Helped Bonds Avoid Losing Ground

Bonds began the day in slightly weaker territory and managed to flip into slightly stronger territory after the CPI data. Core monthly CPI printed at 0.2, but was rounded down from 0.24. In other words, it wasn’t as big of a beat as the “0.2 vs 0.3” result suggested. The notion of inflation being “lower but still elevated” contributed to the tepid response. As for MBS, they were in positive territory all day even though charts made them look weaker due to monthly settlement.  Wednesday morning brings November’s retail sales data and Producer Price Index (PPI). Neither are as heavy hitting as CPI, but they could move the needle of they fall far from forecast. 

Econ Data / Events

m/m CORE CPI (Dec)

0.2% vs 0.3% f’cast, — prev

m/m Headline CPI (Dec)

0.3% vs 0.3% f’cast, — prev

y/y CORE CPI (Dec)

2.6% vs 2.7% f’cast, 2.6% prev

y/y Headline CPI (Dec)

2.7% vs 2.7% f’cast, 2.7% prev

Market Movement Recap

08:32 AM Stronger after CPI data. MBS up just over a quarter point and 10yr down 1.6bps at 4.16

10:50 AM Choppy after initial rally but still slightly stronger.  MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down half a bp at 4.173

01:15 PM 30yr auction 4.825 vs 4.833 f’cast. Bid to cover 2.42 vs 2.38 avg.  No major reaction.  10yr down 1.1bps at 4.167 and MBS off weakest levels, up 5 ticks (.16) on the day.

04:37 PM 10yr yields down 0.3bps at 4.175 and MBS up 5 ticks (.16).

According to our chart of MND’s mortgage rate index, 30yr fixed rates bottomed at 6.01% yesterday, but that’s because the chart logs the day’s latest entry.  On Friday, until late in the day, the chart showed a rate of 5.99%. It was only after several lenders raised rates in the afternoon that the index moved up to 6.06%. Today’s rates ended up just a hair higher than that at 6.07%. Most of the underlying market weakness that accounts for today’s jump occurred yesterday afternoon. Lenders who raised rates yesterday afternoon offered roughly comparable rates this morning.  Things might have ended up worse today had it not been for a reasonably well-received CPI report (Consumer Price Index). This important data showed inflation remaining in check in December, with the most closely-watched metrics coming in just below the median forecast.  Lower inflation is good for rates, all else equal, but inflation isn’t falling fast enough to have a big impact in the short term. In today’s case, it did more to help the bond market avoid losing ground than it did to spark a new rally. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]