DeLory joined Equity Prime Mortgage from Carrington and helped to transition the Atlanta-based mortgage lender into a wholesale-only originator.

A recent letter addressed to the FHFA fueled a consumer advocacy group to look at salaries, which have been criticized as not aligned to the system’s purpose.

The Reasons May be Esoteric, But The Selling is Real

Bonds sold off today, in spite of a very bond-friendly CPI. One reason for that is the market’s assumption that it will need to wait and see what tariffs do to inflation in the coming months. Another reason is the laundry list of reasons discussed in yesterday’s recap. A new reason added to today’s mix in the form of the passage of the budget framework in the House.  As passed, there is $1.5 trillion in spending cuts staked simply on reassurances from Johnson and Thune. Markets didn’t love the implications for Treasury issuance.  The long end of the yield curve (10yr, 30yr, etc) took most of the damage while Fed rate expectations keep the short end of the curve anchored (i.e. a 2yr Treasury won’t drift too far above medium term Fed Funds Rate expectations).  So bonds had selling to do and 2s weren’t eligible, per se. Result: bigger sell-off than we otherwise would have seen in 10s/30s.  

Econ Data / Events

Core MM CPI 

0.1 vs 0.3 f’cast, 0.2 prev
unrounded 0.057

Core YY CPI

2.7 vs 3.0 f’cast, 3.1 prev

MM Headline CPI

-0.1 vs 0.1 f’cast, 0.2 prev

Jobless Claims

223k vs 223k f’cast, 219k prev

Market Movement Recap

11:19 AM Paradoxically modestly weaker after CPI data.  MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 1.3bps at 4.34 ( up from lows of 4.29+).

12:13 PM Weakest levels.  MBS down nearly 3/8ths and 10yr up 2bps at 4.373

03:30 PM New lows, down almost half a point in MBS and up 5bps at 4.40 in 10yr yield.

The move comes three months after Katie Sweeney, former BAC CEO, announced she would be stepping into an executive advocacy role for Rocket’s Pro channel.

Lenders and borrowers have taken advantage of the dips in interest rates, but the industry has long-warned of pain for players like home builders.

Congressional Review Act resolutions to nullify the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s overdraft and larger participant rules now go to President Trump for his signature.

President Trump placed a 90-day pause on most of his sweeping tariff package, but for banks and other financial market participants, the threat of volatility remains.

A federal appeals court panel seemed open to accommodating the Trump administration by putting some conditions on a preliminary injunction that has blocked it from reductions in force at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

Bonds Have a Lot On Their Minds (And The Mega Reversal After The Tariff Pause)

There are actually too many relevant considerations for bond market movement to attempt to put them all in one headline. Everyone can agree that today’s main event was the announcement of a 90 day pause on tariffs and the ensuing mega reversal across multiple corners of the financial market. The stock reversal was the most insane, but MBS put up some numbers as well, with nearly a 1 point round trip from weaker to back to unchanged. Much like yesterday, the best way to bring yourself up to speed on the current esoteric underpinnings is to take 10 minutes with today’s recap video. 

Market Movement Recap

10:01 AM Decent push back against overnight weakness since about 9:15am.  MBS still down 3/8ths, but up almost half a point from lows.  10yr still up 6.8bps at 4.368, but down from overnight highs over 4.50%.

12:25 PM re-weakening to worst levels of the day.  MBS down just over 3/4ths of a point and 10yr up 12.7bps to 4.428

01:04 PM Improving after stronger Treasury auction.  MBS not so much, but 10yr down several bps to 4.391 (still up 9+ on the day).

03:04 PM MBS at best levels, now down only 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 9bps at 4.39

For anyone remotely tuned into financial news, it will come as no surprise that this has been a crazy week and today has been a crazy day.  This is just as true for stocks as it is for the bond market that dictates interest rate movement. Overnight, stocks and bonds both deteriorated substantially.  When it comes to bonds, that means prices moved lower and yields (another word for “rates”) move higher. In other words, bond yields tend to move in the same direction as mortgage rates, and both were up BIG this morning.  In fact, the average top tier 30yr fixed rate was all the way up to 7.0% for the first time since February 19th. In not so many words, the implementation of higher tariffs has been behind the weakness in markets. With that in mind, it’s no surprise to see a massive reversal in markets this afternoon after the Trump administration announced a 90 day pause on new tariffs for all countries but China. This was one of the most jarring trading days for mortgage specific bonds (in terms of the juxtaposition of big losses and big gains) in decades.  Only a small handful of similar examples exist going back to the financial crisis. In fact, mortgage-backed bonds made it all the way back to “unchanged” levels by the end of the day after being relatively terrible shape at 1pm ET.  In a perfect world, that would mean mortgage rates could be at the same levels as yesterday afternoon, but sadly, that’s not the way it works.