Both the FHFA and the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller indices published updated home-price data this week. The message hasn’t changed: prices are still higher than a year ago, but the pace of growth continues to slow. Case-Shiller is now at its weakest year-over-year level in more than 2 years, while FHFA remains stuck near the lowest growth since 2012. The eternal caveat with home price data is that the “lowest in x years” classification doesn’t mean home prices are falling if the percent change is still positive–something that’s still easily the case in annual terms.  Another way to visualize this is with the simple price indices themselves (NOT the percent change). Note: the following chart’s y axis is normalized such that 100 = 100 for both indices (which simply makes it easier to see correlation). The takeaway from this second chart is quite different. Prices remain near all-time highs and have only ebbed slightly in recent months. None of the moderation in prices over the past few years even belongs in the same conversation as the massive correction seen during the great financial crisis. FHFA House Price Index (seasonally adjusted, MoM)
July: −0.2%; June was unrevised at −0.2%
YoY: +2.8% from July 2024 to July 2025
All nine census divisions remained positive YoY, with gains ranging from +0.6% in the Mountain division to +6.5% in the Middle Atlantic. Case-Shiller National Index (unadjusted)

Mortgage application activity dropped sharply last week as higher rates cut into both refinance and purchase demand. According to MBA’s Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending September 26, total volume fell 12.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis and 13% unadjusted. The Refinance Index decreased 21% from the previous week but remains 16% higher than the same week one year ago. The pullback was broad-based, with double-digit declines across conventional and VA refinancing after rates climbed to three-week highs. Apart from the previous 2 weeks, the index was at the highest levels in more than 3 years. “Mortgage rates increased to their highest level in three weeks as Treasury yields pushed higher on recent, stronger-than-expected economic data. After the burst in refinancing activity over the past month, this reversal in mortgage rates led to a sizeable drop in refinance applications, consistent with our view that refinance opportunities this year will be short-lived,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. Purchase applications edged lower, with the seasonally adjusted index down 1% and the unadjusted index down 2%, though both measures remain 16% stronger than a year ago. The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 55.0% of total applications. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share fell to 8.4%. The FHA share increased to 16.8%, while the VA share declined to 16.2%. Mortgage Rate Summary:

“It’s likely going to be in the thousands,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters on Thursday, saying that the “entire team at the White House” was working to identify possible cuts.

The partnership centers on a master purchase agreement for a portfolio of mortgage servicing rights that the real estate investment trust is buying.

The city-owned venue will promote the broker search website by team owner Mat Ishbia’s mortgage company for 10 years in a $115-million deal.

A group of homeowners filed a class action lawsuit against the largest homebuilding company in the United States, seeking all money lost.

While new jobs data contributed to falling Treasury yields, mortgage rates showed a mixed picture with some trackers moving in opposite directions.

Ultra Quiet Session, But Ultimately Stronger

With the day’s only relevant econ data on hold due to the shutdown, bonds didn’t have any objective inspiration. Add the Yom Kippur holiday as well as the absence of tomorrow’s jobs report, and there suddenly seems to be no compelling reason for the bond market to be open for the rest of the week. This was reflected in volume and AM volatility–both were muted. There was modest movement in the afternoon with trading levels moving into slightly stronger territory. This could be viewed as an incidental  byproduct of the shift in buyers/sellers after the European close, or an intentional front-running of what bond bulls hope is a weaker ISM report tomorrow. It doesn’t really matter either way. Bigger, more durable moves are on hold until the jobs report comes out.

Market Movement Recap

09:23 AM Flat overnight with modest selling early.  MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 1.4bps at 4.113

12:08 PM Sideway to stronger in MBS, now unchanged on the day.  10yr near best levels, up less than half a bp at 4.102

01:57 PM best levels of the day.  MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 1.2bps at 4.087

If we’re splitting hairs, today’s mortgage rates are half a hair lower than yesterday’s, but the average borrower might not see a difference in a rate quote. Our 30yr fixed rate index fell by the smallest increment possible (.01%) and it hasn’t been more than 0.03% away from that level for two weeks. With the Federal government closed, today’s only potentially relevant economic data was not reported. It will be the same story tomorrow, which was originally scheduled to host the release of the jobs report. No other report comes close in terms of relevance to rates. Going without it means the market is largely flying blind until it is eventually released. This doesn’t mean rates can’t move between now and then–only that the overall capacity for volatility is lower until the data returns (likely when gov funding resumes). There are non-government reports that matter as well and tomorrow morning brings this week’s best example with ISM’s Services index.

We’re two days into the 4th quarter of the 2025, two days into another government shutdown, and… companies are relishing their September numbers. I have been hearing from a few companies that had strong performance in September. For example, Union Home Mortgage has been in the news lately, and the company had a record lock month with over 5,000 units and $1.67 billion over all channels. As we noted here a couple of weeks ago, UHM announced the acquisition of the origination assets of Sierra Pacific, whose lock volume totaled $521 million for the month, so combined that puts UHM with a total of $2.18 billion. (The asset acquisition, led by STRATMOR, became official on October 1st.) Residential lending is always changing, and in The Big Picture, today at noon, PT, Dustin Owen, host of The Loan Officer Podcast, will touch on the potential for Fannie and Freddie re-public offerings, explore how the Trump Administration and FHFA could shift the landscape, and dig into hot-button topics like LO comp, and increasing non-QM production. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by Spring EQ, one of the nation’s leading non-bank home equity lenders, giving partners more ways to serve customers. Known for speed, service, and innovation, Spring EQ makes tapping into home equity easier. Hear an interview with AHMC’s Matthew VanFossen on his new role as Chair of State and Local for MBA, key agenda items, and how people can get involved with advocacy.) Services, Products, Software, and Tools for Lenders and Brokers