Logical Pull-Back on Tamer Tariff Talk, But Mortgages Outperform

If there was only one event to be aware of on Friday, it was a Trump comment around 7:10am ET in which The President said that the recently-announced 100% tariff on China was probably not sustainable. Stocks, bond yields, and volumes spiked instantly and nothing much happened for the rest of the day. Fortunately for the bigger picture, Thursday’s mid-day drama caused a big enough bond rally that Friday’s pull-back only managed to erode about half the gains. The news is even better for mortgage rates. Lenders had a big enough cushion from Thursday’s volatility that Friday’s pull-back merely resulted in rates holding steady on average. That means the average lender is fairly close to September’s lows which are close enough to the lowest rates in 3+ years.

Econ Data / Events

NY Fed Manufacturing 

10.7 vs -1.0 f’cast, -8.7 prev

Market Movement Recap

10:51 AM Slightly weaker overnight.  MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 4.1bps at 4.011

02:20 PM Slight recovery, but mostly flat all day.  MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 3.1bps at 4.00