Knock Knock Knockin’ on 10yr Floor

Sometimes, it’s a shame that the 7yr Treasury isn’t the most popular bond market benchmark. If it were, today’s headline could reference “knockin’ on 7’s floor.” Whether it’s the 3.77 level in the 7yr Treasury yield or 4.0% in the 10yr, bonds are repeatedly approaching these “floor” levels over the past 2 weeks and today’s installment was the best yet–even if only barely.  Yet again, there’s not much for the bond market to hang its hat on in terms of motivations this week if not for the general stock market malaise. Apart from that, one would have to venture a guess that bond traders are discounting economic fallout from trade/geopolitical uncertainty, but there’s no objective way to measure those vibes in the short term. 

Econ Data / Events

Continued Claims (Feb)/14

1,833K vs 1860K f’cast, 1869K prev

Jobless Claims (Feb)/21

212K vs 215K f’cast, 206K prev

Market Movement Recap

08:36 AM Choppy and sideways overnight, but in a narrow range. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 0.7bps at 4.039

01:10 PM MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 2.6bps at 4.019

02:21 PM MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 2.1bps at 4.024

03:52 PM best levels of the day with MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 3.4bps at 4.01